Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Keeping an Eye on the Long Game: Part XVII

The next SECDEF is.
Question: What do you believe are China’s political-military objectives regarding Taiwan, the Asia-Pacific region, and globally?

I believe China seeks to integrate Taiwan peacefully if possible. That is their policy but their capabilities suggest they are prepared to consider the use of force if peaceful efforts fail.

Beyond Taiwan, China aspires to be the pre-eminent power in Asia. Beijing is expanding its political and economic influence in the region and generating options for military coercion.

Question: What do you believe are the objectives of China’s military modernization program (including its nuclear weapons program)?

It appears to me that
China is building capabilities to fight short duration, high-intensity conflict on its periphery. Its near-term focus is on generating sufficient combat power to rapidly erode Taiwan’s will to resist and to deter or deny effective intervention in a crossStrait conflict.

China is also strengthening its deterrent posture through modernization of its strategic forces. Its “no first use” policy appears intact, but the shift to survivable, mobile nuclear forces gives China’s leaders new options for coercion or first use in crises.
He is 100% correct.

Hat tip PowerLine.

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