Tuesday, May 05, 2009

The Political Somme

Looks like we are occupying the same trench lines we were when this all started. Sorry if you are sick of politics - we will be soaking in it for a long time. It will be a war of attrition - don't quit.

Like I did with McCain's VP race - I'll look at it as a chartist. I looks like the +1 spread is POTUS's medium-term Low, with a trading range to +5 or so. This will hold until another game changer comes up one way or another, as it looks like when this pic was taken (it is a few days old), that the strongly disapproved have topped with a near-term trading range of perhaps 3 points lower. If the approval side tops its trading range at the same time as the disapprovals bottom (can happen, these are not zero-sum polls) then you could see a net spike of +7 for POTUS, while a +1 is about as bad as POTUS will get. Keep that in mind, don't get too excited either way as this will be a long 2012 election season - and wait for the next game changer.

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