Tuesday, December 27, 2011

I See Your Train Wreck and Raise You a Pathetic


We've talked about it here, and we talked to our buddy Phil about it on Midrats - and Phil hits on it again.
Just when you thought it was safe to take a knee and run out the clock on 2011 in the hopes that the new year would be better — it ain’t.

Sandra Erwin of National Defense magazine penned a deeply pessimistic look ahead Wednesday that concluded the Pentagon’s 2012 could make 2011 look like a box social by comparison. The Building will continue to cover its eyes and plug its ears about the truth of the big crunch; the services’ food fights will only intensify; strategy types’ lazy groupthink will persist; and cost and schedule problems are only going to worsen on the big programs.
We've been talking about it for years - any economic historian could tell you it was coming - and we haven't even hit the Terrible 20s yet.

The problem is deep, ugly, and institutional. It will only change with the right leadership; first in suits - then in uniform. There are people who can do what needs to be done - but they don't have the top cover bureaucratically and politically to do it.

We don't that that right combination of professional and intellectual courage at the front right now. As a result, things will be much worse before they get better.

You'll know change when you see it - when leaders who have clearer and more active priorities than the socio-political fads of Diversity and green energy come to the front.

Sandra sees it along with another Midrats alumni, Daniel Gouré.
The Pentagon Will Continue to Live in Denial About the Approaching Fiscal Train Wreck

Yes, a budget train wreck is a shopworn cliché inside the Beltway. It dates back to 1995, when the Center for Strategic and International Studies published, “Averting the Defense Train Wreck in the New Millennium.” One of the authors, industry analyst Daniel Gouré, admits that the Pentagon has so far avoided fiscal disaster. The post 9/11 spending surge prevented the Defense Department from fixing its weapons cost-growth problem and only exacerbated an imbalance between tooth and tail. But with the nation in dire financial straits and its leaders incapable of addressing the debt crisis, “We know the train wreck is inevitable,” says Gouré. “We choose not to think about it because it’s not here right now.”

The trends that the CSIS report brought to light in 1995 have not changed, he says. “Nobody wants to address cost growth in major systems.” At the time, the message was that the Defense Department needed to make strategic choices of whether to modernize its aging equipment or reduce its work force. The same dilemma exists, and it’s only been made worse by the huge increases in the cost of military personnel.

Regardless of the election outcome, Gouré predicts, whoever takes over has to come to grips with the reality that the current defense apparatus is unaffordable.

New Buzzwords Will Masquerade Old Thinking

Pentagon strategists and think tanks have a history of becoming infatuated with “concepts,” which also can be described as the Pentagon’s worldview captured in three-letter acronyms. The decade of the 1990s was all about NCW (network centric warfare) which morphed into RMA (revolution in military affairs). Then came EBO (effects-based operations), coupled with CBR (capabilities based requirements) or TBR (threat based requirements).

Changes in buzzwords didn’t really bring about innovative thinking, however, says Frank Hoffman, military analyst at the National Defense University. “We suffer from strategic amnesia,” he says, “and continue to repeat [mistakes of] the past.”
Part of the problem is that we don't study our own history; recent or far. Combine that with a culture that does not reward aggressive debate - and you drift until you run aground.

There are signs of the problem at the core of our military structures all over the place if you want to see them. They are I&W of a deep fault a the core of the system. That is where the pathetic comes in.
DFAS is unable to reconcile the cash activity recorded in the Navy’s general ledger accounting systems to that recorded in DCAS. DFAS officials stated they acquired the Business Activity Monitoring (BAM) tool to perform this reconciliation; however, after 4 years of effort and $29 million, the BAM tool does not yet provide the information needed to identify and resolve the underlying causes of differences between DCAS and Navy general ledger systems. As of April 2011, there were more than $22 billion unmatched disbursements and collections affecting more than 10,000 lines of accounting. DOD IG officials stated they were performing substantive testing to confirm the balance of the Marine Corps FBWT as part of their audit of the Marine Corps’s Fiscal Year 2011 Statement of Budgetary Resources. This testing did not include internal control and did not provide assurance on the effectiveness of the Marine Corps’ FBWT reconciliation process. Navy, Marine Corps, and DFAS-CL officials agreed existing FBWT policies and procedures are inadequate. DFAS-CL and Navy officials stated the base realignment and closure changes 2006–2008 resulted in loss of experienced DFAS-CL personnel and that remaining staff have not received needed training. The Navy is developing a plan of action and milestones (POAM) to address weaknesses in audit readiness.
...
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in October that the Pentagon is preparing to be audit-ready by 2014. The Senate passed an amendment in the defense authorization bill from Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) that would have required the 2014 Pentagon audit, but the amendment was stripped out of the final legislation.
Excuses. Acceptance of a systemic incompetence that if practiced in the civilian sector would land people in jail.

So - when do we turn? No time soon I am afraid. It will take crisis that will require bold action - or a civilian leadership who can break the cycle that has us where we are.

In the meantime - good people will do their best to serve their nation - a nation bereft of the right people in the right place at the right time - thrashing away in a quagmire of our own creation.

43 comments:

steeljawscribe said...

Well...down at my level our org is very much tuned into and watching with close concern the looming fiscal tsunami.  The billet bleeding has already begun and folks in the O-3/O-4 cohort are feeling anxious these days.
w/r, SJS 

MR T's Haircut said...

My Kingdom for a George Marshall or an Arleigh Burke!

G-man said...

In 1995 heard a 3 star surface warrior make the remark to a room of O-6/O-7/O-8's that within 20 years we would hit a point where the TOTAL SCN would build one maybe two ship due to rising unit cost and the deficit, which would lead to 30-40% budget cuts.  Most everyone kind of chuckled.  That was the first time I recall anyone "defining" one trillion dollars.  The gentleman has certainly been proven correct. 

UltimaRatioRegis said...

Now, these are the people who will be entrusted with understanding critical information networks and the implications of DoD "offensive cyber" actions. 

These are the people who lecture incessantly about "lifecycle costs" and then squeeze nickles out of operator training and maintenance costs, which leads to early re-cap of major end items, the cost of which is hundreds of times greater than the pittance saved by skimping on operations/maintenance.

John said...

Thanks for the cheerful good news.

Time to go help subsidize the alcohol industry, since today is not an election day...

I though I heard Herman Cain say he would like to be SECDEF.  Maybe he, or somoe other outsider with the abiity to kick arse and take names can make a difference, but will it be soon enough?

steeljawscribe said...

Why "or"? - we could use both...
w/r, SJS

steeljawscribe said...

Except the track record for industry wiz-kids coming in to remake DoD hasn't historically done well -- we're still suffering from McNamara and his crowd. 
w/r, SJS

steeljawscribe said...

But that's in the next guy's FYDP...

steeljawscribe said...

And it gets better: " U.S. Destroyer Plans In Doubt"

Quote: Given rising maintenance costs and the current budget environment, it’s unlikely the Navy will be able to afford newly designed DDG-51s, wholesale new changes to their Aegis systems or the proposed Air and Missile Defense Radar.

Guns, grubs and gold -- its the new 401K...
w/r, SJS

steeljawscribe said...

"grub" not "grubs" -- though in a pinch they've worked too (nicely roasted) 8-)

ewok40k said...

Ticos' are being phased out... Burke's are on verge of being stopped too... does that mean we will be left with only LCS to escort the CVNs?
in the immortal word(s) of the ET:
OUCH!

Grandpa Bluewater said...

In a word, Yes. Which is why: "LCS delende est".

steeljawscribe said...

*somebody* has to be the missile sump...

steeljawscribe said...

*somebody* has to be the missile sump...

Mike M. said...

Yup.

What's needed is someone familiar with the acquision system...and loathes it.  Look to the UAV community, they are accustomed to getting hardware into service fast and (relatively) cheaply.  There are several veterans of the big ACTD programs of the late '90s (Predator, Golbal Hawk, Darkstar) who could do an outstanding job.

Sean said...

<span>This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.....</span>

Byron said...

What  you need is someone who has been successful in business (aka, making a profit) and who was before that someone who was a grunt, a Marine, out on the pointy smelly end of the aquisition system and knows how screwed it is.

Latent Infantry NCO said...

Byron, the only problem with that is that getting a business man to redefine "profit" as "national security" and not money is pretty nigh impossible.

 This crisis exists because there is no longer a functional definition of what constitutes national security nor a foreign policy that can support it - combined with civilian leadership (read Congress) that has operated in Murtha-esque sectional selfishness fashion for decades.

Until there is an institutionalized, post-Cold War defense ethos that revolves around continental defense and not just foiling pirates...we are screwed.

Adversus Omnes Dissident said...

to quote the Office Linebacker:  "HERE COMES THE PAIN TRAIN!  WOOO-WOOOO!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xc11tskjEGs

Mike M. said...

Byron, Latent is right.  Governance is not business, the dynamics, pressures, and goals are wildly different.  Half the problems of the current acquisition system can be attributed to applying the business management fad du jour to problems they weren't designed for.

LT B said...

I am ALWAYS happy to see Terrible Terry Tate bringing the pain.  Of course the sensitivity training one is my favorite.

The Pentagon needs another COL Boyd.

ewok40k said...

classic example is risk management... while a company can afford to build a commercial ferry with design not allowing it to go out at sea state above say, 7B, a warship not only is expected to go out at any sea state, but to fight if not in the most rough seas then just afterwards... what for commerce is excess cost to be avoided, for military is necessary redundancy and what for commerce is statistically improbable scenario is a worst case scenario for military - and the one that really needs military to be deployed.

FCC(SW) said...

Is that Aegis redundancy?

Grandpa Bluewater said...

Capacity of one is a pretty small sump.

Grandpa Bluewater said...

That ethos would be "do your duty, first, last, and always."

Grandpa Bluewater said...

It's time to make sure the wife has a salable skill and you have a plan to get one.

FCC(SW) said...

I could tell you a months-long DFAS Cleveland nightmare that started when they failed to generate a W-2 for me, failed to acknowlege that anything was wrong (they kept telling me "You have to get it through myPay now .." but there was none there.  To this day, when I go online, I have a 2006 W-2, and a 2008 W-2, but none for 2007).  My account was "garbled" and there is apparently only ONE person who specializes in ungarbling them (a Ms. Long).

It took nearly four months for them to fix it (and it all occurred during a PCS -- very nice).  I ultimately got them charged $50 from the IRS for failing to provide me my W-2.  My "garbled" pay issue wasn't resolved for another couple months after that.  Never so much as a "my bad" or apology from anybody at DFAS-CL.

cdrsalamander said...

Got you beat.  Over 5 months for a post-IA claim in the four figures.  Not even a reach around.

DeltaBravo said...

I knew someone whose employer decided he was "dead" and stopped paying him.  That was an interesting one to resolve.

UltimaRatioRegis said...

Amateurs. 

I MEF owed me my travel from Iraq from submission on 3 October 2004 until 11 March 2006.  Seventeen months.  Almost $4,000. 

The admin warrant officer (female) got an MSM for her outstanding performance during the same period.  Never left Pendleton.   The very award I got for seven months of working successfully with TWO Anbar DGs, the Fallujah council, eighty-odd combat patrols, etc.

pk said...

during viet nam my yard had a great number of apprentices. 98% of them applied for education benefits from the VA. (apprenticeship counted for half time college and they went to two night school classes a week to get the other half).

VA was running as much as 24 months behind with the benefit checks for a gargantuan number of people.  about the middle of one particular december President Nixon ordered VA to work 7 day weeks, no days off, no holidays......... till thery caught up.

they managed to get it done about 5 hours before christmas.

C

UltimaRatioRegis said...

PAIN CAKE!

May be my second career.

ewok40k said...

Well, i'd prefer trading missile for a missile instead of trading ship for a missile...

James said...

Unless said vessel is a LCS.

Grumpy Old Ham said...

Channeling a litle Norm Augustine, was he?

Law Number XVI: In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.
    Norman R. Augustine - Augustine's Laws (1983)


http://www.qotd.org/search/search.html?aid=5218&page=3

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