Monday, September 14, 2020

Keeping an Eye on the Long Game: Part LXXXVI

 I don't think this is quite the graphic we should be using to make our point - whatever that point may be.

As reported by Brian Everstine, Pentagon editor at Air Force Magazine, General CQ Brown, Jr., USAF, the USAF Chief of Staff, shared the above slide with the following additional comment;

 ...USAF Airmen are the 'force multiplier' that make the difference, and a need for better sustainment. "Better to have a force of quality."


I guess I need to go there, don't I?

1. First of all, the most expected flash point in WESTPAC involves Taiwan. As such, you can take all the South Korean units off that slide. They don't want any of that.  If 2025 is your point, you can take all of Japan off the slide as well. They unquestionably don't want any of that. Maybe later, but Japan needs another decade of seasoning before they are ready for that COA.

The Aussies? That is a hard best to make. Would they throw in for Taiwan? Impossible? Sure. Good chance, no.

2. I think we make a significant error to underestimate the "quality" of the Communist Chinese forces. Are they person-to-person-unit-by-unit as "good" as ours? No ... but the gap will be a lot closer in 2025 than it was in 2005 where most people's minds seem to be stuck.

We have a history going back to the Korean War in underestimating the Communist Chinese. We would be fools to do so now. You can say an American will kill 10 Chinese for every American loss, but if the Chinese are throwing 15 at you, you have a problem. 

We would also be fools to count as a given our allies forces. They are sovereign nations. They have agency ... and they may have other ideas about what is or is not worth poking the neighborhood dragon over. We have an entire Pacific Ocean to retreat over ... they don't.

H/t Blake.

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