Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Shipbuilding Turkeys coming home to roost

I was thinking this weekend that I am being WAY too negative as of late. I love our Navy and as I left active duty I was so impressed with the young Sailors I worked with and Junior Officers - extremely impressed with those who will protect the future.

So, I started to look for some more positive things to put out - but what came up in my search was the exceptionally difficult position we have put those Shipmates in as they try to secure their nation's freedom over the next few decades.

We owe it to them to talk honestly - as adults - with each other about where we are, what we can do, and how we can get to where we need to be within the constraints and restraints the taxpayers and their elected representatives give us.

Behold the spawn of the lost decade.

If you looked at the U.S. Navy's recently released annual report for its longterm goals for ship construction and how its aligns with its fleet size requirements, you are probably scratching your head.
Why? Well, put simply, the Report to Congress on Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for FY 2011 outlines a larger required fleet size - 323 ships - as opposed to 313 in the three previous years annual reports, but reduces the number of ships that it will be purchasing over the next 30 years. The numbers just don't add up. In its analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2011 Shipbuilding Plan, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the non-partisan agency charged with providing Congress with factual budgetary analysis, says the Navy's 2011 plan calls for buying a total of 276 ships (198 combatants and 78 logistics and support ships) from 2011 to 2040, which would not meet its required fleet size of 323. The 2011 plan, points out the CBO, actually calls for buying 20 less vessels than the 2009 plan, which called for the construction of 238 combatants and 58 logistics and support ships between 2009 and 2038.
To make matters worse, CBO says that if the Navy receives the same amount of annual funding for ship construction in the next 30 years as it has over the past three decades- an average of $15 billion a year in 2010 dollars- it will not be able to afford all of the purchases in the 2011 plan.
Yes - the rest of the world is joining the concern you have seen here and other places in the Navy milblog world for the better part of half a decade.

The above quote is from American Chronicle .... sure you can pick at some of the details .... but the facts are what they are. It is getting harder and harder to hide the place we have put ourselves. As we get closer to the "Terrible 20s" it will become more an more obvious.

The CBO is being optimistic.

Here is something else - open your aperture and you will see that in the larger fiscal view, there is no way that we will have the same amount of annual funding for ship construction. There is no funding fairy that is going to sprinkle happy-dust over the budgetary train wreck that is coming. The numbers will be worse going forward.

Are we planning for that in a way that will position us to play the positive global role we have that we have as part of the Anglosphere (if you don't understand the concept of cultural synergy of the Anglosphere; google it) - since the end of the Napoleonic Wars?

Close the aperture a little more and shift focus - and you see that the ability to have the industrial capacity to do it is under pressure. The de-laminating is
already starting.
Grim prospects for the Avondale shipyard outside of New Orleans and its 5,000 jobs have public officials scrambling to find a solution and warning of potentially painful damage to the regional economy.

Stephen Moret, Louisiana's Secretary of Economic Development, expressed concerns about the facility's future last week after talks with Northrop Grumman, the defense giant that owns the plant.

Moret's concerns hinge on the Navy's plans regarding its LPD-17 San Antonio-class vessels. According to Moret, the Navy has scaled back or pushed back plans to obtain those vessels, leaving Avondale -- which builds the vessels -- with too little work to continue operations.

"There's no other apparent ship program that would fit," Moret said.
Why is there so little work? We are not buying enough hulls. Why not enough hulls?

The Tiffany Navy of Clark, Mullens, and Roughead. LCS, DDG-1000, LPD-17 - pick your poster child. The past-perfect of the last decade is destroying our ability to build the future good.

If we want to be able to keep our nation's enemies at bay - at a distance - then you need a Navy. If you want to be able to destroy those who wish our nation harm at a distance with little loss of American life, liberty or property - then you need a Navy. If you want to help our friends fight their own wars on the ground by helping them secure the sea and sky - and as a result move the USA killed an wounded numbers by a order of magnitude - then you need a Navy.

If we cannot get that story across to the taxpayer and give the decision makers and influencers confidence that we can effectively, and efficiently do our job - then we will have suffer a loss greater than anyone's ego or rice bowl. We will put our nation in severe strategic risk and be responsible for the unnecessary future death of thousands to millions of our fellow citizens.

This is a serious business - and we are failing - we are failing because we have lost the ability to talk clearly to ourselves and others.

If you want a solution - you have to start there.


Byron said...

I agree with everything save one: one of the best things to happen to improve shipbuilding is to let Avondale go out of business.

Andy said...

Avondale is threatened because they build crap. Aided and abetted by the "business enterprise" ethos that the Beltway Navy forced upon that who actually serve.  This ever-growing "bow wave" of aquistion deficit has been preached in naval aviation for at least the last decade.  As always, we were told, mainly at Hook, that it was there, it was real, and, oh by the way, nobody within the Beltway gives a damn, just "deal with it."

I "dealt with it" back in the late 70's and the "Carter I" administration; I deeply hope my eldest, who has just begun his journey in our fellow sea service, will not be faced with the consequences of "Carter II," but rather be led by those who ask "what do you need, what can we do to make your mission more likely to succeed?"

Indeed, what needs to be asked, perhaps, is "where is the Navy's Mad Dog Mattis?"


Salty Gator said...

Byron, can Avondale be persuaded to put out a quality product (or to take serious reform measures) without the threat of them being allowed to go out of business?

Salty Gator said...

This Navy is not only not resourced to build to a 313 ship Navy, it is not set up to do so either.  We are so non-concerned with shipbuilding that our structure could not be less streamlined.  While we prioritize diversity, DADT, sexual assault, environmental issues, we continue to counter our own surface warfare culture of "know-and-fight-the whole ship by creating stovepipes of excellence.  By dis-integrating our surface warfare competencies (OPNAV N2N6, N86, etc), we create conflicting value streams (there's some business lingo for you) whereby the Sailor is not the ultimate customer--OPNAV is.  This conflict leads to infighting and systems maximized for ease of resourcing, not neccessarily capability or user friendliness.
I'm firmly for reducing the size of the fleet for the next 20 years in order to refocus on training, maintenance, shipbuilding, and rebuilding the engineering expertise that formerly resided within the government.  Rahm Emanuel says that a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. Let's use this horrible economy to hire some young talent out of these universities to become our future NAVSEA engineers.  And while we're at it, since we are reducing the size of the fleet (on paper and in actuality), let's get rid of the Global Force for Good missions once and for all and focus on the core missions of the US Navy - Marine Corps Team.

xformed said...

It's becoming more and more apparent that I may have been fortunate enough to have served in the best days the US Navy will have seen, at least for the future of any of the readers here.

We had parts, we had people, we had training, and we had maintenance:  They almost all wore uniforms like us guys on the ships.  We were all in it together.  We had "Old Salts" who had seen conflict, up close and personal, in some case when projectiles came at you from other ships at sea, far from the litorals to make a point of what was important.

This projection, coupled with the current rate of expediture of dollars that do not yet exists, is sad.  Combine that with the "acqusition plan" for votes by lawyers transmogrified into politicans (and then warfare professionals turned politicians within) is the only significant "tickler item" these days.  War is that other guys fault, so they ignore it, and come up with a national AIDS/HIV strategy (read more $$$ and keep a community vote).  Beyond that, the money necessary to keep the unemployed in a "pay check" will overwhelm everything.  All else will have to stop to keep that cash flow, lest the incumbents get shown the door (and lose their private 757s).

I used to not like term limits, but, like those behind bars, when others can't control themselves, then external controls are called for.  New minds, new ideas, without the baggage, but not the opportunity to get too comfortable before we rinse and repeat.

sid said...

But the USN has a killer D1 football team!

And its Diverse!!!

xformed said...

Like the fleet full of who knows how in- or actually competent while we tally up the color of their skin....

Dr King wept.

WCOG said...

How is Avondale different from BIW, NGNN and GDEB that they allow themselves to put out such a crappy product? I'm asking honestly because I haven't graduated yet and I may be looking for a job at one of these places soon (or at NAVSEA for that matter). I've never heard a single complaint about Bath or Electric Boat workmanship and yet I hear them all the time about Avondale ships. Is it just poor quality control inspections or is the problem deeper than that?

Byron said...

Avondale is populated by the best that New Orleans has to offer. And while I know that there are many fine people who live in the greater NOLA area, there's a hell of a lot of slugs. Top that with the union, which isn't the least bit interested in the words "quality" or "production". Season heavily with a company that firmly believes that no matter what, the Navy will buy it (and it has) there is absolutely zero incentive to build an on-time quality ship. WCOG, I'd forget NAVSEA, there's not nearly the openings you might think.

The difference between Avondale and the other two is simple: Both EB and BIW have long standing traditions of craftsmanship. This is an ethos that cannot be taught or bought. The individual worker has to be committed to insuring his work is done to a high standard. Both yards work fairly hard to correct processes that result in inaccuracies or poor workmanship. It is apparent the same cannot be said of Avondale.

Grotopotamus said...

As far as I can tell from up here, Byron's observation re: worksmanship and standards also applies when comparing GDEB and NGNNs, the latter of which has apparently been plagued by quality problems and delays over the course of the Virginia class cycle. I recently attended the Keel Laying ceremony for the Mississippi (SSN 782), and Rear Adm. Hilarides basically said the ship "will certainly be delivered faster than the California" - which is the responsibility of NGNNs - approximately 7 feet away from Mike Petters, who was sitting in the front row. Ouch.

Kristen said...

I got all excited when I read the first paragraph cause I've been longing for a little Naval good news out of my favorite dark cloud.  Oh well.

Kristen said...

I'm good with term limits.

Byron said...

Sometimes you just got to b!tch slap someone to get their attention... Just like Sunday when the wife picked up hoagies at an upscale grocery, Fresh Market, and got home to find they were never placed in her bags. Wife asked me to go get the hoagies and to tell the cashier and bagboy how they screwed up. I got to the store, got our hoagies (which were pretty damn good, BTW) and then asked the young lady for the manager. The manager (a husky fella with shaved head, bulging muscles and an "I'm in charge" attitude) came up to ask what he could do for me. That's when I told him that I just drove 20 miles to pick the food up, facing another 20 back, just because HE didn't have his people trained correctly. I further explained that a slightly lesser store has a much higher customer satisfaction because they weren't about appearences and fancy display's, they were about happy customers. Lastly I told him that this would be the end of his store seeing my hard-earned money, for he could kiss my ass. The customers and staff were more than a bit shocked, and I could have cared less.

That's how you slap the hog on the nose ;)

Mike M. said...

Amen to that.

Mike M. said...

I think much of the problem can be ultimately traced to Goldwater-Nichols.

The importance of seapower is easily neglected.  People take the free and fast movement of goods and raw materials for granted.  This is particulalry true for Americans, most of whom have not even a historical appreciation of what a blockade really does to standards of living.  Without education, people tend to ignore seapower and its benefits.

Before Goldwater-Nichols, the Navy had the ability to make its case to the public and to Congress.  To educate people on the value of seapower, and of the merits in investing in the Navy. 

Goldwater-Nichols changed all that.  It prevented the Navy from makings its case, and locked the resource allocation of the Department of Defense into a configuration designed to fight a land war from a forward friendly country.  I have no doubt that future historians will have a field day trying to determine the degree to which U.S. policy in Iraq after the Gulf War was affected by the fact that Saddam Hussein's regime was a drop-in replacement for the Soviet Union.  No nasty, painful rebalancing of resources would be required, just some tan paint.

We can argue over what platforms and systems to buy until we are blue in the face.  It all counts for nothing until the Navy makes the case to the public for seapower.  And in the current "control all communications" environment, that is not very likely.

Old NFO said...

<span><span><span>We won't want a real Navy until we need it.  There are too many pork barrel projects and entitlement programs that need funding to worry about properly funding the military.  </span></span>As has often been said, the purpose of the military is kill people and break things.  Too many people have lost sight of that.  
<span>   </span>  
<span><span>We've gotten by on technological superiority for so long that we take it for granted.  God help us on the day we again get into a fair fight.  The welfare state will take priority until we suffer a major and humiliating defeat that cannot be denied.     
Of course the very same people responsible will be the first to exclaim "How could this have happened?" and lay the blame on the very people who will be fighting a Navy war on a Coast Guard budget. </span></span></span>

Bill Phelps said...

We can no longer afford our present military, including but not limited to the Navy.  Current tax receipts are suffieient to fund our entitlelment programs.  All other domestic programs which include the military are funded with loans.  Forget forward defense.  Our defense lines will be those prior to WWII - Hawaii in the Pacific and England/Carribian in the Atlantic.

Anonymous said...

Thats why its high time for a full scale organizational makeover on par with that which happened at the beginning of the last century...

sid said...

that was me...

DeltaBravo said...

The only thing more insane than using a "Peace Dividend" to fund social programs and balancing a national budget on the premise that everyone else has beat their swords into plowshares is the concept of cutting military budgets and funding social programs with deficit spending while we're at war.

We'll have to go to war with the Navy we have, not the Navy we need.  Because the only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.

sid said...

this isn't the first time for a USN FUBAR...

Vigilis said...

Precisely, according to The United States Constitution:<span>

Section 4The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican  Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion;

Section 8: The Congress shall have power To ....

To raise and support armies, but no appropriation of money to that use shall be for a longer term than two years;
To provide and maintain a navy;
To make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces;

ewok40k said...

I'd take 200 ship navy of fighting ships over 300 ship navy comprised in half of LCS...

John said...

When our mission is to be a "global force for good" it is hard to justify much of anything as necessary.  When the politicians insist you have to buy what their constituents make, or get nothing, it's hard to say no.

The "stuck on stupid" is at the top levels, not on board the ships.

Will we survive until it is cured, or have we lost the will to survive, let alone win?

Andrewdb said...

Today I can be on-topic when I post this!

It isn't just the Gulf Coast.  Yesterday NASSCO laid off 590 people in their SD shipyard: 


Anonymous said...

Sid, G/N may not be the perfect organizing principle for our services, but my impression has been that it has had little direct impact on the Navy's acquisition decisions. 

For the most part, the Clinton, Bush and so far, Obama administrations have dictated how much money is available for buying ships, but have not made any great show about WHICH ships should be bought. The Navy has been the organization making the case for LCS, DDG-1000 and LPD-17. Realistically, the only people you can blame for that fiasco then, are the folks in charge of the Navy who made those decisions. 

XBradTC said...

^ Crap. That was me.

The Cabal said...

And that worked really good, didn't it?

San Diego Sailor said...

There is no Mad Dog Mattis because all the DC Desk Warriors are all interested in working for Defense Contractors once their public relations careers are over.  I have seen a variety of very senior officers go to the trough without the slightest hesitation.  We need a Mattis and we need a Boyd, unfortunately we have neither.  The current generation of "leader" gets ahead by kowtowing to the current leader in fashion.  I used to work for a Flag who would fawn all over Clark.  I saw nothing in Clark or this Flag.  Clark used canned speeches that you could hear again and again on the "campaign trail."  And where is the Flag I used to work for?  At a well known Defense contractor firm, trying to sell us useless garbage that we don't want or need.  There should be a ban on Flags going to work for Defense Contractors.  They offer nothing but access, and then that access is used to market garbage.  Be a Flag or be a Defense Contractor, but don't be both.

Byron said...

I just noticed that you mis-spelled "sufficient"...must have been that liberal education that rotted the rest of the brain, sport.

Wharf Rat said...

I was reading below about Avondale, and the crap that comes out of there.

Let me ask this - I was at the Keel ceremony for PCU America LHA 6 at Pascagula.  Makin Island just came out of there.  What about her?  Are you folks connected to hear about how her first year has been in the fleet? 

Do we have the same problems with LHD's as LPD's from the same company?

Byron said...

Well, better chances that what you'd get from Avondale. Just depends on whether or not P-goula got past all that weld quality stuff.

BTW: A lot of skilled help is out working in the Gulf right now making money hand over fist doing containment and cleanup. Gonna suck for us as work picks up in a month.

Curtis said...

I disagree.  The navy and it's attendants should mightily exert themselves to show why America needs a world wide naval presence.  They haven't been doing the job lately.  How many pirates in the SLOCS have our world wide navy impeded?

I would not build or overhaul an American warship in an American yard given the preference.  Nothing justifies the waste of money or time.

I would take every single employee of NAVSEA and fire them now.  We'd lose nothing by doing that.  I'd throw in SPAWAR and it's labs too. As a nation, we'd be spared the expense and lose absolutely nothing.  And that 70 billion $ presidential helicopter program....I'd can NAVAIR too.  Just how the hell does a plane cost in excess of 69 million $?

We could a handful of carrots and puke better management than this.

ewok40k said...

I'ds seriously consider swapping part of the CVN force for SSGNs... not that flashy and flexible, but helluva more survivable and effective versus sea-denial China style.
I'd put a 50 strong class of minehunters ASAP. British Hunt class is off-the-shelf.
I'd put a 100 strong corvette/frigate class. Call them all you want just please no LCS. Plenty of designs off the shelf from MEKO to Absalom.
I'd keep 50 subs in service, possibly including 10 SSKs.
This is 200 ship "unglamorous core"
Then 50 Burkes/Ticos to serve as AAA/ABM.
I am at a loss when it comes to amphibious ships, because I dont know how much a marine brigade force needs. At least 20. Keep them simple, slow, but spacious.
Carriers are big targets that tie up manpower, need air wings that are as costly, and one lost is going to be political disaster. Think Star Destroyers. Reduce them. And they tie up escorts.

Anonymous said...

Great post!  One additional comment - we have to maintain what we've got as well.  We ain't scoring any points in that department either. 

ewok40k said...

what do you expect with "optimal" manning etc.

Byron said...

The Norfolk newspaper, the Pilot, says that NG is going to announce that it's shutting down Avondale Shipyard and is going to put Newport News on the auction block.

Westpac Warrior said...

Minimal/optimal manning is not the issue - large jobs beyond the scope of ship's force (regardless of manning levels) are not being done due to lack of availability funding.  Racking and stacking jobs in an avail is one thing but not having the funds to address serious maintenance concerns during overhauls is killing the surface force. 

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