Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Nothings has changed - you just forgot

As a result of the Libyan operation, there has been a lot of discussion in the European - and especially the British - press along these lines.
The Arab spring has irrevocably changed the security landscape. While many debate how the civilian surge started, no one knows where it will end and what the impact will be on the international balance of power, security and liberty
No, it hasn't. Even a rudimentary review of history will tell you that things arise on a regular basis that are best addressed with a robust expeditionary capability based on flexible platforms who can bring with them all they need to operate - and that nation needs a deep enough bench to replace initial forces with new forces on a rotational basis.
Our response must be integrated, internationalist and interventionist. Integrated so that defence priorities apply across government. Internationalist because we gain strength through our partnerships, and must deepen relations across Europe. And they must be interventionist by better co-ordinating defence and development policy as a means of conflict prevention.

A full assessment of the impact of the Arab spring on UK security, the resultant threats we face, our response at home and abroad and the capabilities required should form a new chapter to the defence review. This is not about looking backwards, but about turning hindsight into foresight.

William Hague, the foreign secretary, has said that the Arab spring is as significant as 9/11. It is worth considering how the previous government responded then: a new chapter was added to the defence review in 2002, with a new strategy for fighting terror at home and overseas. Even Margaret Thatcher reopened the Nott review in 1982 as a result of the Falklands conflict.

This government is ignoring the tide of history. Our role in the world has become more complex and demanding and we have responsibilities beyond our borders that we cannot duck. It is not just resources that we need, but the right strategy.
Did I just agree with The Guardian? Strange ... sure they are doing it mostly because the Tories are in power, but that doesn't mean it is wrong.

5 comments:

Petty Tyranny said...

The question still remains, what have we forgotten? The Arab Spring is not historically repetative because it alludes to international responsibility that has sprung from the availability of a peaceful post-Cold War 'unipolar moment'. I would argue, instead, that it is repetative simply because people seek freedom and this is an expression as such. This must be disconnected from security dialogue. True, the Arab Spring will change country dynamics, but compared to the traditional, conventional threats eminating from China, the mud puddle and sandbox of the Middle East is still greatly overlaid by external powers which fall along sides of patronage. 

What we forgot, in my opinion, is that history repeats itself, and that it is not the Arab Spring that is waking us up to history, but China. The Middle East will change, but no fundamental power shifts will take place. They are still rag-tag militaries of minimal importance.

That being said, I am generally astounded (and you point this out) that many security thinkers and foreign policy wonks seem to have short memories in a field where learning from history makes all the difference.

Cheers,
Thomas
pettytyranny.tumblr.com

CDR Salamander said...

Thomas,
I think you missd the entire point of the post.  Re-read it.  It is about force structure and the requirement to have robust forces to respond etc.  Just re-read the post.  It is obvious that you have a point you want to make - you just did not find the right place to make it.

Grandpa Bluewater. said...

They didn't forget. They never knew.  You can't teach folks who are sure they know everything, anything.

Good thing this is a British problem....right?

UltimaRatioRegis said...

<img></img><span>As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire</span>

UltimaRatioRegis said...

<span><span>As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man  
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.  
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,  
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire...</span></span>