Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Fun things to watch

This little math exercise got me thinking,
1. If Clinton and Obama basically tie in the remaining 12 contests, Obama would need 164 superdelegates to come his way to put him over the magic number of 2,024

2. Assuming no currently committed superdelegates switched and no uncommitted superdelegates jumped off the fence. . .

Clinton would need to win 59% of the delegates in the remaining 12 contests in order to overtake Sen. Obama's delegate lede.

If the upcoming 611 delegates at stake split 59/41 for Clinton -- 360 would go to Clinton and 251 would go to Obama -- netting Sen. Clinton 109 delegates. . . which would be enough to overcome Obama's current 106 delegate lead.

3. There are 611 delegates up for grabs in the remaining 12 contests.

ABC News' current delegate estimate has Obama at 1,556.

That means he would need to win 77% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024 to secure the nomination. That is highly unlikely due to the proportional delegate allocation rules in the Democratic Party.
What is funny about all this is that we all know that Hillary will either win pretty, or try to win dirty. There could be a point where, note that he has not endorsed anyone at this time, the Silky Pony could make the difference ... if the 26 votes could be controlled and directed as a unit - and if it got that close. Hey, don't roll your eyes; remember the FL 2000 vote?

Second fun part. If Obama was in a position to come out on top, he would need to negotiate hard with Clinton to get a smooth transition. Hillary would never take the #2 spot, and someone would be a fool to let her. I think she is bored with the Senate and doesn't like the idea of being the female version of Sen. Robert Byrd (D-VA) down the road. I do think, however, that she might be interested in being a Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg.

Think about it - Justice Hillary Rodham (she will drop the Clinton after the divorce).

If Obama wins it - that is the only smart thing for him to do. "Hillary, if you fully support me, you will be my nomination for the first Supreme Court opening I get."

Why smart? Because if Obama comes out with the nom, Hillary will know that the absolute last chance she will have will be in 2012. Therefor, it is in her interest that Obama lose the Nov. election to McCain - and that will give her 4 years to run the "...if you nominated me 4 yrs ago, there wouldn't be another Republican in the White House..." line.

Hillary - the new Reagan. Ponder that.

So Shipmates - take Democrat nom for 2008 Hillary Clinton; take Obama Democrat nom for 2008 and Democrat nom for 2012 Hillary Clinton; or take President Obama and Justice Rodham. Yummy.

Or you can have President McCain after defeating Hillary and then see Obama again in 2012. I like that better.

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