Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Libya update

I'm pondering over at USNIBlog.


ewok40k said...

Well, one thing I'd like to say is that unless there will be United States of Europe - a federal state - the Europe has no chances of generating the kind of power projection capability the US has.  There are broadly 3 kinds of European militaries:
1 - pocket sized (Scandinavs, Benelux, etc.) - basically unable to even protect themselves versus larger neighbors. See WW2 Germany vs them - oh yest tat was a little extreme case, but should eg France or Germany invade Benelux it could have proceeded with ease.
2 - FGP - Former Great Powers - UK, France, Germany, Italy - with enough spending level they can project power quite reasonably well (Falklands, France in Africa), though lack of clear and present danger since 1989 is steadily eroding that capability.
3 - in between - a small group consisting of Poland and Spain, with Romania as weakest member. The states can relatively adequately protect own territory, but power projection potential is minimal, and in case of non-former-colonial Poland and Romania generally seen as useless outside of supporting the US in its empire management. Note that only reason for that help is seeking to balance Russia's appetite for hegemony, and should US interest in the region become less than "military response to agression"-level, all the resources will be focused on home front. Georgia lesson is well remembered.
Combined european fleet under an unified command could send into battle - Charles de Gaulle, Principe de Asturias, Giuseppe Garinbaldi, and, until recently 2 UK light carriers, some 10 SSNs and scores of SSKs, destroyers and frigates. Not on USN level, but certainly good power. With every state having its own indiosyncratic policy this becomes simply powerless. Imagine like Texas and California having their own foreign policy and armed forces? right it could end in fighting on opposite sides of the intervention, in say Israel-Egypt war.
Conclusion; Barring some sort of conventional military threat - a pan-islamic state in Middle East or resurgent Russia on a level that goes beyond flashy prototypes and rusting cold war arsenals, don't count much on Europe in the military terms.

SCOTTtheBADGER said...

If the Salamander is pondering, does the Badger go NARF?