1937, NATO, and the Need for Follow-Through

General Sir Patrick Sanders, GBR A, Chief of the General Staff (GBR), made a statement, in part, this week that at first I thought was a bit of an exaggeration; 

"This is our 1937 moment," the army chief said, referring to the crucial period leading up to World War Two.

"We are not at war - but must act rapidly so that we aren't drawn into one through a failure to contain territorial expansion… I will do everything in my power to ensure that the British Army plays its part in averting war."

The challenge means the army must modernise, embracing new technologies such as cyber warfare and long-range missiles, but also retain traditional soldiering skills.

General Sanders said if a battle came "standoff air, maritime or cyber fires are unlikely to dominate on their own - land will still be the decisive to domain", adding that "you can't cyber your way across a river".

Perhaps not. It tickled something that this former NATO staff officer and all around NATO fanboi tried to ignore as the Madrid Summit was going on.

NATO is always frustrating and not all our allies are as “good” as others. Some nations are just institutionally prone to freeriding … but still, there is nothing better than NATO for nations who are trying to keep the experiment of liberal democratic government going. Even the least democratic nation in our club, Turkey, is still a place you can – within reason – not feel like you are living in some dystopian hell hole – though there are limitations there as opposed to living in say Denmark.

It is clear that the Ukrainians’ brave stand in the face of Russian aggression finally opened the eyes of many in NATO that were previously closed that the post-Cold War fever dream has passed, that it is time to act as adults in an adult world. Not perfect, but an improved situation.

Yes, Russia is a poor and corrupt country … but she is also resource rich and has a distinctly expansionist vision of her place in the world. On paper in GDP and population she does not seem like a threat to prosperous Western Europe and North America, but you can be as rich and prosperous as possible, but if you are supine and distracted, the smaller and poorer who is aggressive will defeat you every time.

The events of the last year make the Madrid Summit one that must deliver more than group photographs. NATO must show her cards. This is one of those moments in time where you either turn in to the wind, or drift hopelessly.

So far, with a few quibbles, there is room for optimism. Let’s look at a few bits from the pre-summit press conference with Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday,

We will transform the NATO Response Force.

And increase the number of our high readiness forces.

To well over 300,000.

NRF from 40,000 to 300,000. Hey, I know that gig and I feel the need to get to the CJ5 shop in Mons to go over the Combined Joint Statement of Requirements (CJSOR). Which troop contributing nations are filling which serials? Are we going to use the existing JFC’s as higher HQ or a new structure? This is my staff officer happy place. What a great time to be in Brussels, Mons, Brunssum, or Naples. If you love staff work – which I did – this is the kind of thing you just live for. (NB: don’t expect anything soon. NATO pretty much shuts down from 15 JUL to 15 SEP).

Regulars here know my decades long hobby horse about NATO allies spending their fair share? Well … 

Nine Allies now reach – or exceed – the 2% target. 

Nineteen Allies have clear plans to reach it by 2024.

And an additional five have concrete commitments to meet it thereafter.

Two percent is increasingly considered a floor, not a ceiling.

"... Back in 2014, when we agreed the Defence Investment Pledge, only three Allies met the guideline of spending 2% of GDP on defence. And defence spending was also declining across Europe and Canada." 

Say what you want about Trump, but he is the one that dusted this off and made it a priority. He and his natsec team were correct in this regard and should be given the appropriate credit. 

There are nations that geographically don’t quite “fit” NATO but otherwise would be right at home. We are smartly pulling them in tighter.

I welcome that Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea will join us for the first time at our Summit.

Absolutely critical to global security…not just North Atlantic.

However … all is not perfect. I would not be doing my loyal readers proper justice if I did not point out one sad fact – there are still unserious people injecting their unserious neo-pagan religion in this very serious secular challenge;

And on climate change, we will agree to cut greenhouse gas emissions for NATO as an organisation.

NATO could disappear tomorrow – and the planet would not notice. What unserious Davosesque BS. Whoever insisted that be included should be publicly shamed. 

Having unserious FOD spot-welded on to serious occasions degrades everyone. It does not belong on the same page as this scene setter;

... remember that, for instance, in the current Strategic Concept, agreed at the Lisbon Summit in 2010 - and I attended that Summit as the Prime Minister of Norway - at that time, President Medvedev of Russia participated in the meeting and we agreed in the Strategic Concept, which is still the current Strategic Concept, and we will have a new one later this week, we said that Russia is a strategic partner. That will not be the case in the Strategic Concept we will agree in Madrid. I expect that Allies will state clearly that Russia poses a direct threat to our security, to our values, to the rules-based international order.

That really set the tone for the conference.

Today we got the official “Madrid Summit Declaration,” and it is good to note the significance of its location; 40-years after Spain joined NATO. 

What are the bold-faced items?

We reaffirm our commitment to NATO’s Open Door Policy.  Today, we have decided to invite Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO, and agreed to sign the Accession Protocols.  In any accession to the Alliance, it is of vital importance that the legitimate security concerns of all Allies are properly addressed.  We welcome the conclusion of the trilateral memorandum between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden to that effect.  The accession of Finland and Sweden will make them safer, NATO stronger, and the Euro-Atlantic area more secure.  The security of Finland and Sweden is of direct importance to the Alliance, including during the accession process.

No questions the largest takeaway. Swedish and Finn officers have been a regular sight through Partnership for Peace at NATO HQs for decades and at least their military has been ready to finalize their integration in to NATO. They were just waiting for the people and their elected representatives to realize the utility of this fact. They are turnkey members and will more than carry their weight. Great to officially have them in NATO.

The second takeaway is something not spoken loudly in polite company but generally understood. Russia is the reason for NATO.

We condemn Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in the strongest possible terms.  It gravely undermines international security and stability.  It is a blatant violation of international law.  

...

The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.

The invasion of Ukraine was simply the last straw. 

We warmly welcome President Zelenskyy’s participation in this Summit.  We stand in full solidarity with the government and the people of Ukraine in the heroic defence of their country.  We reiterate our unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders extending to its territorial waters.  We fully support Ukraine’s inherent right to self-defence and to choose its own security arrangements.  We welcome efforts of all Allies engaged in providing support to Ukraine.  We will assist them adequately, recognising their specific situation.

We are a long way from and many plays away from UKR joining NATO, but NATO is clearly as close to being a combatant in this war as one could be without having actual troops on the ground. The nearest parallel I can think of is the USA’s relationship to GBR from 39-41, and perhaps the Soviet Union to Vietnam during our war there.

We will continue and further step up political and practical support to our close partner Ukraine as it continues to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity against Russian aggression.  Jointly with Ukraine, we have decided on a strengthened package of support. 

Every NATO meeting, like minded non-NATO nations should be invited and smart minds put to work to see how we can better integrate with these friends.

We have met here in Madrid with many of NATO’s partners.  We had valuable exchanges with the Heads of State and Government of Australia, Finland, Georgia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Sweden, and Ukraine, as well as the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission.  We welcomed the engagements with the Foreign Ministers of Jordan and Mauritania, as well as the Defence Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Sadly, once again – the unserious neo-pagan cohort had to jump in where they are not needed nor wanted, but Davos must have its bit of the spotlight;

Climate change is a defining challenge of our time with a profound impact on Allied security.  It is a threat multiplier.  We have decided on a goal to significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions by the NATO political and military structures and facilities, while maintaining operational, military and cost effectiveness.  We will integrate climate change considerations across all of NATO’s core tasks.

So, there you have it. Sweden and Finland are in, and Russia is on report.  Hopefully that means that I will have fewer opportunities to tap my sign over on twitter.

If we are lucky, by mid-decade the new floor will be 2.5% of GDP and punitive measures like we’ve recommended through the years will be placed on member states not carrying their fair share of the load.

Five Centuries of Maritime Excellence

 

When you discover that you need to become a sea power in order to secure your nation and its people ... it can't happen over night.

In 1520, the Danish king Kristian II mobilized his fleet and seized Stockholm, thus strengthening his position and control of commerce. In order to oust the Danes and decrease their dominance in the Baltic Sea, Sweden needed a fleet.

King Gustav Vasa purchased ten ships equipped with weaponry and arms from Lübeck and they were delivered on 7 June 1522 at Slätbaken, close to Söderköping, and since then, this day has been recorded as the birth of the Swedish Navy.

...sometimes it takes two years and you have to outsource it ... but ever since then - plucky Sweden has been a Baltic seapower. 

Happy birthday to some great professionals with a great history. 

Remember, go to settings in YouTube and under closed captioning get it to auto-translate in to English.

Turkey Skunks the NATO Party

Especially for Finland, but less so for Sweden, their neutrality in Europe is in a large measure a Cold War relic.

For old NATO hands like your humble blogg'r, this is a great moment. Though they were not NATO, you could find in most NATO HQs and operations, including Afghanistan, Finns and Swedes. Superb professionals and friends. To see them come fully in to the fold is just plain right - not just from a security perspective, but on a baseline of NATO's common values and shared baseline respect for the rule of law and liberty. They are great nations for those who value Western civilization.

A historic day!

Today, Sweden and Finland hand in letters expressing their countries’ interest to apply for @NATO membership to SG @jensstoltenberg #SwedenNATO pic.twitter.com/ZbdfJW3xtu

— Sweden at NATO (@SwedenNato) May 18, 2022

We should be so lucky.

Like the rude uncle that keeps showing up to holiday dinners, Turkey would like a word;

President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday Sweden should not expect Turkey to approve its NATO bid without returning "terrorists", and Swedish and Finnish delegations should not come to Turkey to convince it to back their membership in the alliance.

Earlier, Finland and Sweden formally applied to join the NATO alliance, a decision spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the accession process expected to take only a few weeks despite Turkey's objections.

...

Erdogan said NATO allies had never supported Turkey in its fight against Kurdish militant groups, including the Syrian Kurdish YPG, which Ankara also views as a terrorist group closely tied to the PKK.

"NATO expansion is only meaningful for us in proportion to the respect that will be shown to our sensitivities," he said.

Turkish state broadcaster TRT Haber said on Monday Sweden and Finland had not granted approval for the repatriation of 33 people that Turkey requested.

The diplomats have some time here, but Turkey is far outside a half standard deviation from the center of the NATO alliance. Most of us who served remember our Turkish colleges who "disappeared" or were forced in to exile by Erdogan. How does that mesh with "NATO values?"

No modern nation is going to turn people over to Turkey who have taken refuge there from torture or death. Erdogan has undermined basic freedoms as the rest of NATO members define them to the point it would be a crime to turn people over to a fate we all know is one best discussed at The Hague than Brussels.

As we've discussed here in the past, it is time to reassess Turkey's position in NATO.  Like Finland and Sweden's neutrality, is Turkey's membership in NATO also a Cold War relic worthy of reconsideration?

A step that should have been taken years ago (and maybe it has...), any "special weapons" assigned to NATO need to be removed from Turkish soil.

When push comes to shove in that part of the world, access to Turkish bases has always been unreliable. They are unreliable. They bully and threaten their friends. Who needs to be in an abusive relationship for that? Has her membership in the alliance brought her closer to Western values, or is she degrading in to Ottomanism?

Turkey is buying relatively advanced weapons systems from Russia.

She has used the refugee crisis to extort money and other concessions from her allies.

Turkey's turn to neo-Ottoman moves from off Cypress to Libya - including threatening the French navy - calls further in to question what she brings to the larger goals of the alliance besides inertia.

We should let this play out - but if Turkey decides to play the spoiler, then serious people need to start making some serious decisions about what NATO needs to focus on in the 3rd decade of the 21st Century. Yes, I know "kicking them out" is exceptionally unlikely for a whole host of reasons - but the rest of the alliance, if they can stand firm, has other motivational tools at their disposal.

Alliances, like friendships, have obligations as well as benefits. Actions have consequences. Turkey needs to know she can't be a bully with her friends ... or that friendship might not last.

Finland and Sweden: Reinforcing NATO Northern Flank

From a historical and military planning point of view, it is hard to understate the sea change this represents not just for NATO but for the nations’ involved.

Finland will launch an immediate debate on joining NATO, Finnish officials said on Wednesday, as the country reconsiders its longtime stance outside the Western military alliance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that a decision would be made in coming weeks.

“There are different perspectives to apply (for) NATO membership or not to apply and we have to analyze these very carefully,” she said at a news conference in Stockholm, according to Reuters. “But I think our process will be quite fast.”

Marin spoke alongside Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, who said Sweden was also re-examining its position outside NATO, after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine offensive plunged Europe into its most serious security crisis since World War II.

Serving at in many NATO HQ’s in a separate “Partnership for Peace” wing of a building or such, the military from Finland and Sweden have had personnel assigned to NATO for years. We served together in Afghanistan and elsewhere for a long time. It would be hard to be more turnkey NATO member states than Finland and Sweden, but the political and societal inertia in both nations kept their neutrality in place.

Even before the Russo-Ukrainian War, there was a drift – especially in Finland – towards NATO membership, but old habits and memories are difficult to overcome unless there is a big push.

Finland has only been an independent nation for a little more than a century, and her neutrality was part of her negotiated survival after WWII. Sweden has maintained a strict neutrality from her squabbling European neighbors since the end of the Napoleonic Wars.

This is not a small move for NATO or the nations involved. You can add this to your list of reasons we are living through one of those pivot points in history. Big pivot or small – well – we need to wait for more cards to come out of the deck to answer that question.

Clearly, this brings more security to Finland and Sweden to keep the bear at bay, but what doesn’t bring to NATO?

It consolidates NATO’s northern flank. In the event of conflict, it will simply make things move quicker and faster for NATO to make it more difficult for the Russians to move west of Bear Island at sea, and  Karelia on land.

That being said, Finland only has a population of 5.5 million with a per capita income of $51,650. They are just a tad under spending 2% GDP on defense, but will probably be just over it this year.

Sweden has a population of 10.3 million with a per capita income of $56,270. In 2020 she spends 1.3% of GDP on defense, up from 2019’s 0.9%. She is expected to reach 2% by 2028, but with the events of this year, I bet on that moving up.

So as a benchmark, The Netherlands has a population of 17.4 million and a per capita income of $59,700 and spends 1.4% of GDP on defense and rising.

So, in essence NATO gets ~another Netherlands. More important that that is – as always – geography.

NATO’s northern flank is now more secure – even though we now have a much longer border with Russia. Finland and Sweden will be less subject to bullying. Central and Western Europe – with the exception of those quirky mountain folk in the center, some fussy Balkan bits etc – is more united with most of North America against Russia.

Remember, win or lose, at the end of this Russia will still be Russia. The Steppes will still be The Steppes.

You should all know that history. A militarily united Europe, spot-welded to Anglospheric North America, is a recipe for security and peace for all.

If not that, a recipe for a better chance to defeat an enemy on the march.

Take the “W.” 

Is Sweden Going to Lap us Again?

Plucky Sweden, a nation 32 times smaller than the USA, produces some exceptional weapons - mostly on her own.

Looks like they are going to leverage Visby ... and I'm a bit jealous.

I'm seething over at USNIBlog.

Come on by, pull up an Ikea chair, and push some meatballs and herring around the plate with me.

Sweden Executes an About Face

Sweden is not an official ally, but as the largest Scandinavian country, she has influence from Finland, through the Baltic and across the sea to Iceland.

She also has a long history with Russia that she cannot keep an eye off for too long.

This little bit deserves more attention than it is getting;

The Swedish parliament has approved an increase of a whopping 40% in the defence expenditure to counter the threat of Russian aggression. This will take the Swedish defence expenditure to USD 11 billion. This is the first such massive increase in the Swedish defence expenditure in the last 70 years. Only last week, the main parties in the Swedish parliament also adopted the stand to support NATO membership.  

As discussed in the article linked above, this move has been in work for awhile ... but things are accelerating; 

Troop numbers will rise from 60,000 to 90,000 over the next four years and annual defence spending will increase by 40 per cent to £7.2 billion, or about 1.5 per cent of GDP, under a budget passed by MPs on Wednesday.  

They have been slowing drifting closer to NATO since 1997, and I know their military is game - but is their larger political establishment ready?

A Swedish parliamentary majority in favour of readiness to join NATO as a possible security policy option has emerged for the first time after the far-right Sweden Democrats party shifted position on the military alliance.

However, the government, which decides foreign and security policies, remained opposed to adopting such a “NATO option”.

The introduction of a “NATO option” would not mean Sweden would apply for membership of the U.S.-led Western alliance but rather that Sweden would consider it down the road if deemed necessary for security.

I've taught a seminar at Försvarshögskolan, the Swedish Defense University in Stockholm, and served with Swedish officers on staffs in Europe and Afghanistan. They are great professionals, pound for pound as good as any American, German, or Brit. It would be great to officially have them on our team.

Even though they are just a bit under 10-million souls, their leadership in Europe on defense if very welcome.

Now, if we could just get them to at least 2% vice 1.5% at the end of the day ....

Baltic Security with Dr. Sebastian Bruns - on Midrats

From Finland to Denmark, Sweden to Poland - from small Latvia to the Continental power of Germany - the return of Russia has brought a renewed focus the last half decade to the Baltic.

Not just a SLOC, there are important economic and cultural ties that predate written history that continue to be important today.

Our guest for the full hour in a wide ranging discussion will be Dr. Sebastian Bruns.

Sebastian heads the Center for Maritime Strategy & Security (CMSS) at the Institute for Security Policy, University of Kiel (ISPK). He is the author/editor of six books, including "Routledge Handbook of Naval Strategy and Security" (edited with Joachim Krause, London 2016), and his latest, "US Naval Strategy and National Security. The Evolution of American Maritime Power" (London, 2018).

You can listen to the show at this link or below, but remember, if you don't already, subscribe to the podcast at Spreaker or any of the other podcast aggregators.

If you use iTunes, you can add Midrats to your podcast list simply by clicking the iTunes button at the main showpage - or you can just click here.

Sweden's Diverse Answer to ASW in the Littorals

I like the direction Sweden is going. Keeping solid, basic kill ability while incrementally making newer weapons.

I'm reviewing over at USNIBlog.

Come on by!

A Whisky on the Rocks Chaser's Hangover in Sweden

Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) is more than just a perishable skill, it is a needy skill.

Four years later, Sweden’s defense establishment is finally hearing what those with knowledge of ASW have been yelling for years both inside and outside the SCIF.

In 2014, the Swedish Navy turned its painfully unsuccessful hunt for a "Russian submarine" into an international thriller. Today, Navy experts are blaming substandard maps of the challenging and difficult-to-navigate seascape for reducing the nation's submarine hunting capacity.

Poor measurement of the seabed poses extra problems for the country's Naval Forces, making it particularly challenging to discover naval mines or hostile submarines, the military magazine Officertidningen reported.

Have you been told or have told others that we are ready to find and kill submarines from the Baltic to the South China Sea?

Because the oceans are vast and the detection ranges are so relatively small, hunting submarines is a numbers game. It is also a game that requires a lot of different tools to play successfully and a bespoke set of kit with highly trained and focused specialists.

It is not a pickup game. It is not something you can place in reserve to restart when war comes. It is something that can be helped with technology, but needs the human to make sense of what is found. It is something that needs a constantly evolving and updated support structure to ensure effectiveness. It is not cheap to do in peace, but it is less expensive than sunk warships you can’t replace at war.

ASW requires a hunter’s instinct fused with a technologist’s intelligence. It isn’t a hunt where the hunter is going after prey; it is a hunt where the hunter is going after another hunter. The hunted knows that it is being hunted, and it knows that thing which is hunting it also knows it be being hunted in return.

There is no rapid build-up to a dramatic engagement. It is a process put together bit-by-bit by multiple parties. It is hours, days, weeks, of mind-numbing ambient inconsequence suddenly broken by a clear, bright indication that something human is out there in the inhuman chaos … or is it?

It is a game full of ghosts, tricks, phantoms, and futility. It is a game full of false paths, dead ends, lies, hidden truths, sleight of hand, wishful thinking, ignored solutions, and trusted mirages. It is not a game for amateurs or accountants. It is not the game for the easily bored or excitable.

It is needy. It is jealous. It is expensive. It hates to be ignored or neglected - it has a mean streak.

Its greatest enemy are its esoteric complications. Policy makers and warfare commanders have only a paper-thin understanding of the challenges – until they need to find the submarines that suddenly people are telling them are a danger to their entire enterprise.

In every war in the last century where a belligerent had submarines, the same pattern emerges – the ability to locate, track, and attack enemy submarines that was promised in peace simply does not work at the war.

WWI, WWII, Indo-Pakistan Wars, The Falkland Island War, all have similar patterns. There are not enough ASW capable units to effectively negate the threat; expenditures of search and kill-stores far exceed peace-time expectations. The advantage is with the submarines, causing surface ships to have less freedom of movement than expected.

Of course, this was all known prior to the beginning of hostilities, but why the shock with the reality of war?

Money and priorities. ASW is pricy, is not as “sexy” or career enhancing in peace as other areas. As such, it suffers.

It is a hard sell, and that is part of the problem – decision makers do not have the patience or background to understand the unique nature of hunting submarines. It really isn’t their fault, they just have never had to ask.

It is way too easy to conflate ASW with other kinds of warfare areas and as a result, feel that you have a handle on the challenges. You don’t, and here’s why;

- Water: Water is not air. Though there are some sexy and not so sexy non-acoustic ways of finding submarines that we simply will not discuss here or on the comments section – ahem – for the vast majority of the world and in most tactical situations, you are looking at acoustic sensors, active and passive.

Water, to a much greater extent than air, has density, temperature layers, and life that live in it. All impact how you can see what is there. Imagine that you were walking around town looking for a specific person and every few steps you took and each different direction you turn, the glasses you were wearing changed tint, had different polarization filters come and go, had mirrors and prisms slide in and out of view.

Sound: Drive over to a friend’s house. Have them blindfold you and drive you to an open field a few hundred yards from a train track. Listen. In 5-min, 5-hrs, or 5-days a train comes by. By listening to it, I want you to tell me what direction it is heading to. How fast is it going? Where it is relative to you when it comes closest to you? What kind of train it is? What is the production number of that kind of train is this one? That was easy. Now I want you to have one ear with an ear-bud in it playing AM radio static. I also want you sitting in the back of a flat-bed truck that is driving up and down the dirt road in a thunder storm.

Geography: Sure, the ocean looks smooth, but that is the trick it plays on you. Under the surface there are mountains and canyons that make those on land look like cute little models. There are ocean bottoms that soak up every bit of sound like a dry sponge does water. There are other ocean bottoms that do to sound what rooms of mirrors in funny houses do to light. There are walls, cliffs, dizzying drop off in to the actual abyss. There are forests as crowded and noisy as any terrestrial rain forest. People will ask you to drive a truck down a bike path. They will ask you if you can see things through mountains, to hear the whisper of a child over the roar of a waterfall.



Sensors: “Best if Used By” dates apply to more than just food. In addition to the intellectual limited shelf life and ongoing need to replenish and refurbish grey matter, especially on the air-ASW side of the house, sensors (sonobuoys) take up a lot of space and stocks deplete quickly when prosecutions are underway. How many days/weeks of stores do you have available on your ship/air station/AOR? Care and maintenance of surface/subsurface ASW sensors are as challenging as anything exposed to the sea for extended periods of time. Are your estimated usage rates based on exercise data, or what you expect in a wartime footing when nerves are touchy and the attitude is, “You can’t find a sub with a helo/MPR bird on the deck or a buoy in the tube. You can’t kill a submarine if a torp isn’t in the water.” Are your stocks instead based on what crumbs you’ve managed to collect at the edges of the POM?



Weapons: Ah yes, the toothy end of the kill chain. Let’s put the submarine’s MK-48 HWT to the side for a moment and focus on the surface and air side of the ASW house. What do you have to kill a submarine with? You only have one option, the LWT of the MK-46/50/54/Stingray/MU90 variety. Let me pose to you this question. You are a hunter responsible for feeding your family and your poor and slightly lazy neighbors. You are, unfortunately, only allowed one gun in one round. You have your ideas about what you need as you will be hunting everything from squirrels, to ducks, to quail, to deer, from deserts to leafy woodlands. However, you are not making that choice. Your Aunt Mable in town who runs the family accounts is making that call. You’re getting a single shot Stevens break open rifle in .22 short. It will work great for squirrels and moderately good for rabbits. You better be real lucky if anyone expects you to bring a bird to the table. You’re not sure how she expects you to take a deer at the other end of the bean field - but Parson Jones told her that a .22 is dangerous out to a mile – in theory – so a 200-yd shot shouldn’t be a problem. In theory with a shot through an eye socket you might be able to bring a deer home, but … well … you’ll just have to see what you can do. Does save money, in a fashion. You tried to be reasonable and asked that you could get by with a 20-ga and a .308. Didn’t have to be fancy, but … they wouldn’t hear of it. And so, that is what we have at the pointy end. You’re going on a trip to Kansas to hunt Pheasants and Montana to hunt Pronghorn next year. Make it happen. Would it be better to have a gun cabinet of .22, .243, 30-06, 6.5mm Creedmoor with a 20-ga over/under and 12-ga autoloader to choose from instead? If you wanted to be successful, yes.

Is ASW doable? Sure it is. Ask the German Navy about late ‘43-45. Is ASW hard to convince people in peace how hard it is? Sure, ask the Royal Navy from 1939-42 and again in 82.

Ask the Swedes today.

Ask the VCNO next time you see him. He’d probably enjoy the question as a welcome distraction from what he is usually asked. If you’ve listened to him speak, you can detect a man who knows his ASW.

...and yes, I know. Sputnik News ... but it is in English and besides the defense industry ads, the source document is all in Swedish.

Hat tip Bob Hein.

Even NYT's Can't Ignore Europe's Suicide

The results from the Italian election are in, and the results should not be a surprise;

A right-wing alliance led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia took the lead in Italy's general election, according to preliminary results published Monday morning, but the country now faces a hung parliament and a struggle for power.

Forza Italia, the far-right Northern League and Brothers of Italy together took about 37 percent of the vote, followed by the euroskeptic 5-Star Movement (M5S) with about 32 percent.

Immigration, again, is the driving force of elections. The temperature is continuing to rise, and as the political establishment in Europe refuses to act, expect more "fringe" parties to move to the front.

Italy is just the latest example, more will follow. Until the source of this instability is addressed, this will continue to be the driving force pulling Europe and Europeans apart.

That is what is happening in southern Europe, what about in the north? Well, let's pick another country whose problems are starting to get play in traditional media.

Regular readers know that from the start if this blog, one of the regular beats here was the growing problem caused by the masses of unassimilated immigrants from majority Muslim nations in to Europe's boutique ethnostates. 

These small nations have neither the size, temperament, nor political capital to assimilate the numbers coming in - especially when many have no desire to assimilate. These nations do not have the abilities of a large "nation of immigrants" like the USA to make such things work - they are small almost tribal states who have a history of going to war with other neighboring ethnic groups. They can take small numbers of closely related people (i.e. ethnic Danes in Sweden) but do not do well with huge cohorts of people with little in common ethnically, culturally, or religious.

Of course, this is a topic that is fraught with political fire - but they have to be addressed in a calm, fact based manner or they will get worse. The latest waves of settled migrants were invited by well meaning but historically inept liberals, but then weaponized by leftists as a political tool.

When the great center became worried about the resulting crime, social cohesion, and other related issues, the response was to insult them, and then outlaw their speech. When more and more people from the center could not find reasonable political parties to address their concerns, they turned to fringe parties. Those parties grow, the leftists apply more pressure. The fringe becomes mainstream ... and these nations begin to morph in to something they never wanted to be. All to satisfy the virtue signaling needs of liberals, and the metastasized self-loathing of leftists - these nations are becoming a warped opposite of what they were just a generation ago.

We've been covering this over a dozen years. For those new here and for review for the rest, let's look at some of the quotes from this blog over the years concerning one of the nations who let weaponized leftist self-loathing warp what was once one of the most highly civilized civic cultures in the world; Sweden.

It is as if they hated themselves for their own good, hard work in building a successful state on the fringes of the Arctic. Leftists have so much self-loathing that they cannot contain it internally - they have to force it on their host nation.

I'll just pick three of my posts in order to keep it simple.

First, February 2006;

Sweden is shutting down websites.

The Swedish government has moved to shut down the website of a far-right political party's newspaper over cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad.

The site's host, Levonline, pulled the plug on the website of the Swedish Democrats' SD-Kuriren newspaper after consulting with the government.

It is believed to be the first time a Western government has intervened to block a publication in the growing row.
...
His website briefly posted a picture showing Muhammad from the rear, looking into a mirror, with his eyes blacked out - an image he said was about self-censorship.
...
Swedish Foreign Minister Laila Freivalds described Kuriren's move as "a provocation" by "a small group of extremists".

"I will defend freedom of the press no matter what the circumstances, but I strongly condemn the provocation by SD-Kuriren. It displays a complete lack of respect," she said in a statement.

Don't worry Laila, they will cut off you head last. Just try to find their site.
...

Europe has a long history of giving in to aggressive, angry cultures and armies. They also have a history of the people being sold out by their rulers. This time, though, something tells me that the people won't let them. I hope so. America can only absorb so many refugees, you know.  

Yes, I know - the SD. In 2010 they entered the Swedish Parliament for the first time with 5.7% of the vote. The last election?  12.9%. The #1 party 31%, the #2 23%. SD is a fringe party no longer. Since the last election, they have even polled on top.

Their popularity is growing in the run-up to the September 2018 election. They should not be the #3 party in Sweden, but they are because the people feel they have no other place to go.

September 2007;

3.3 mil. Iraqi settle in the US - more on the way...and imagine that most of them want to settle in Washington D.C. and LA. Chew on that for awhile - because proportionally, that is where Sweden is right now.
...
Sweden has a huge problem on its hands - and it has no one to blame but themselves.

That was written well before the latest wave of migrants brought in to Europe by the irresponsible Chancellor of Germany.

May 2010:

It is a war where we must have the courage to stand up for the basics of freedom. That is where the cancer of Diversity and PC thought hurts so much. It promotes self-doubt and self-loathing. Self-doubt and self-loathing is where cultural bullies with a political mindset - Fascists and Communists are/were best at this kind of stuff - flourish.

What happened to Swedish cartoonist Lars Vilks is a perfect example.
...
If the West's weak-willed, self-loathing Left and Center-Left does not start standing up - the Islamists will push harder and harder. Over time, more of the indigenous center of the countries under pressure will look for other places to defend their freedom. They will start to make our buddy Outlaw Mike look like a Social Democrat.

The West's options are simple. Defend yourself now and those like Lars Vilks and the late Theo Van Gogh, submit to Sharia, or wait for open social conflict where blood will blow and bodies will lie rotting in the open.

The left continues to try to squelch free speech not just in Europe anymore, but here as well. This will only strengthen the fringe. Where do you think Trump came from?

So, we come to 2018 ... and it seems that at last things are so bad that even the NYT has to cover what we have been discussing here for a dozen years; Sweden invited in the destruction of its own culture.

The NYT isn't totally onboard, so don't get too excited. They use the tragic story of an immigrant from Chile who was killed by a hand grenade and left behind his fellow-immigrant wife from Thailand.

They don't really address the rape epidemic running in parallel to the rise in murder - and avoid all together the source nations where this problem is coming from - but this is a step towards truth.

Sweden’s gang violence, long contained within low-income suburbs, has begun to spill out. In large cities, hospitals report armed confrontations in emergency rooms, and school administrators say threats and weapons have become commonplace. Last week two men from Uppsala, both in their 20s, were arrested on charges of throwing grenades at the home of a bank employee who investigates fraud cases.

An earlier jolt came with the death of Mr. Zuniga, who on Jan. 7 picked up the grenade, which the police believe had been thrown by members of a local gang targeting a rival gang or police officers.
...
Like many of his neighbors in Varby Gard, Mr. Borisho had sought asylum in Sweden to escape a war. He knew what a grenade sounded like. As a commando in a Lebanese militia, he had handled grenades, and remembered the strict protocols he complied with, locking up the weapons for safe keeping the minute he returned to camp.

That a grenade should be found on the sidewalk outside a kebab shop, a few steps from an elementary school, was difficult for him to take in.

“Now, when I think of the future, I am afraid,” he said. “I am afraid for Europe.”
...
The police are struggling to gather information in immigrant neighborhoods, and clearance rates for gun homicide cases have fallen steadily since the 1990s.

“We have lost the trust from the people who lived and worked in this area,” said Gunnar Appelgren, a police superintendent and specialist in gang violence.

Sweden’s far right-wing party blames the government’s liberal immigration policy for the rising crime, and will thrust the issue to the fore in the fall campaign.

Last year, Peter Springare, 61, a veteran police officer in Orebro, published a furious Facebook post saying violent crimes he was investigating were committed by immigrants from “Iraq, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, Somalia, Syria again, Somalia, unknown country, unknown country, Sweden.” It was shared more than 20,000 times; Mr. Springare has since been investigated twice by state prosecutors, once for inciting racial hatred, though neither resulted in charges.

That is significant for NYT.

Read the whole thing. Zuniga - the secular leftist from Chile - lost so much faith in Sweden, that he wanted his wife to return to Thailand upon his death.

The truth is uncomfortable, but it is right there. Sweden and much of Europe have made a huge mistake that generations will have to deal with. What they cannot do is continue to ignore the problem. 

This story is not going anywhere. It will be interesting to see how much deeper NYT will go in looking at it.

If they need a few hints, they are free to get in touch with me.

A Swedish Whisper

What can the Swedes tell us about the dangers of another BRAC?

I'm telling the story over at USNIBlog. 

Come by and see.

Poland Needs Fords, not Ferraris

Jerry's classic from '09 came to mind when I read the following about plucky, brave Poland's drive to grow its defense budget and recapitalize their air arm;

The Polish Ministry of Defence is analysing a possible purchase of 50-100 aircraft to replace the Polish Air Force's aging Sukhoi Su-22 strike aircraft and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter aircraft.

Yes, NATO still has SU-22.

"We consider various possibilities that would be beneficial, [including purchase of] F-16 aircraft; used or new or another solution. The optimal solution would be a purchase of 50-100 aircraft," Bartosz Kownacki, deputy defence minister responsible for defence procurement, told the government-owned Polish Press Agency (PAP).

"I think that during a month and a half we will have a clear idea if is worth buying used F-16s from the United States or new F-35s," he added. According to Kownacki, the aircraft Poland has been offered are older variants than the F-16C/D Block 52+ models currently used by the Polish Air Force. The F-16 option being considered would see Poland purchase 96 used F-16s (six squadrons) for PLN100 million (USD24 million) each to replace Poland's aging 32 MiG-29s and 32 Su-22s.

Poland needs additional firepower now, and every platform counts. They are not going to march on Moscow, so they need something - in numbers - to fight and hold the line at home.

A well trained pilot in a Block 52+ F-16 can handle anything the Russians can throw at them. They do not need now, nor can afford the F-35 in the appropriate numbers.

Something else besides the trusty F-16, I would also offer that the Swedes are about to have a fire-sale of some slightly used Gripens;

Last year the Swedish defense company SAAB made its final delivery of 96 Gripen planes ordered by the Swedish government. Now, despite having thousands of flying hours and many years left, the fighter jets are destined for the scrapheap. The Swedish government is buying even newer Gripen planes.

Gripen C/D is an advanced fighter jet with attack and surveillance capabilities, which unlike its Gripen predecessors is also compatible with NATO standards and thus more easily exportable. SAAB has sold or leased the plane not only to the Swedish government but to South Africa, Hungary, Thailand, the Czech Republic and even to the United Kingdom, which uses the plane for pilot training.

But in 2012, the Swedish parliament voted to place another order, this time for sixty new Gripen E aircraft, to be manufactured with immediate effect. “The government’s order was connected to likely sales to Brazil and Switzerland,” Swedish defense analyst Robert Dalsjö told me. “Because other governments were likely to buy it as well, the idea was that the Swedish government would get the planes more cheaply than it otherwise would.”

That is a nice bit of kit that the Swedes might make a good deal on. As the Poles already fly the F-16, there is some economy on just getting more of them - but there is something to be said for having two sources for your fighter aircraft and making nice with a neighbor who also does not like the Bear all that much.

Either way, the smart move for Poland would be to buy "good" in bulk, and wait for the "perfect" to mature a bit and be a bit more affordable.

Hey ... well look at that;

...Kownacki suggested that now would be the wrong time to purchase the F-35, should that be the route the country opts for. In his view, had Poland enterer the programme five years ago, then Polish industry could have been involved. However, given the current price of the initial aircraft remains high it is worth Poland waiting a few years until "F-35 availability rises and the prices drop".

Smart.

Anything we can do to help the Poles, we should. Last year, they crossed the 2% of GDP threshold and continues to grow in their investment in their defense. We should reward them as much as we can. 

You know the theory; reward behavior you approve of - punish that you don't. When you look at her former Warsaw Pact allies now in NATO to her south - an example of positive behavior is very much needed.

Baltic Security with Bruce Acker and Dan Lynch, on Midrats

With a resurgent Russia, the security environment from former Soviet Republics to the traditionally neutral nations of Finland and Sweden has changed dramatically.

What are those changes and how are they changing how these nations see their place in the larger Western security infrastructure? We’re going to look at how thing are changing in how they work and see each other, NATO, and what they need to do to provide for both their and collective defense.

Our guests for the full hour Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern will be Colonel Bruce Acker, USAF (ret) and Captain Dan Lynch, USN (Ret).

Bruce is currently a Defense Strategy Consultant in Stockholm Sweden. He spent 30 years on active duty starting as a Air Defense Weapons flight test engineer upon graduation from the Air Force Academy, and subsequently served in Space, Missile Warning, and Missile Launch operations culminating as a Minuteman ICBM squadron Commander. Following staff tours managing future Air Force and Defense Space systems programs, he broadened to political military assignments as the US Air Attaché to Malaysia and as the US Defense Attaché and Senior Defense Official in Stockholm. Col Acker has published articles on regional security issues in the Swedish Royal Academy of War Sciences journal as well as leading National daily newspapers.

Dan is currently beginning his fifth year on the maritime faculty of the Swedish Defense University in Stockholm. He spent over 35 years on active duty starting as an enlisted Marine and upon graduation from the Naval Academy selected Naval Aviation where he commanded a VP squadron and a patrol and reconnaissance wing. Following major command, he served on the staff of the US ambassador to NATO in Brussels and retired after his last tour as the Naval Attache to Stockholm.

Join us live if you can, but if you miss the show you can always listen to the archive at blogtalkradio or Stitcher. 

If you use iTunes, you can add Midrats to your podcast list simply by clicking the iTunes button at the main showpage - or you can just click here.

Europe's Ripe Swedish Problem

At the end of yesterday's 5th anniversary Midrats, we briefly discussed things to look for in the new year. Each year, events happen that suddenly change the national security landscape. 

Things that after the initial shock look in hindsight as something that should have been in the "probably to possible," vice the "impossible to improbable" at the turn of the year. The Islamic State and the Ukraine crisis are two of the more recent ones that come to mind.

Where will the next one be? Well, many years in the making, I think that one crisis that should be in everyone's "probable" category is a additional and potentially rapid political disruption in northern Europe as the working and middle classes lose their patience with their political elite's inability to deal with the existential threat of massive non-Western immigration.

In the old continent, there are a variety of currents coming together in 2015 that should make one keep a close eye on what is going on in the background.

With much of the Muslim world in expanding chaos, and Sub-Saharan Africa unable to grow its economy to match its population, even more that before, 2015 will be a year where population migration from the poor, corrupt and violent prone south to the north will grow and in some cases, further set the seeds for conflict in the nations they are migrating to.

The hard reality of human nature is going to begin to push the well meaning theory of the welcoming welfare state of Europe in to a region of unsustainable and instability - if it has not already. Combine the relatively inexpensive ability to move across continents along with a very low chance of being sent back if you make it, and you have a perfect match of push and pull.

Nations can absorb a certain amount of people from different nations, religions and cultures - but you can break the system. You can take more if both the people coming want to assimilate and the nation taking them insists on it. A nation cannot take the same numbers if the people coming will not assimilate. In the past, high financial, technological, cultural, and legal barriers prevented indigestible waves of immigration - but no more. Those barriers are gone in a way that requires correction. There can be a good correction, or a bad one. If correction is done in time, it can be done in the good category. If things are allowed to continue on their path without a proper response, then in a panic and time crunch at the tipping point, no one will like what will be done to correct the problem - if it can be corrected.

As large boats drift throughout the Mediterranean Sea, waiting to come ashore; as open borders to the east and south minimize barriers to entry, and a political elite who are tuning out the concerns of its own people - and more importantly - want to make sure no one calls them a nasty name - well, where does this go?

Each nation will ultimately deal with it their own way - but to get an idea about possible reactions, look for the most vulnerable nations - those closest to the tipping point. Look for the place where the extremes are - where the most stress is - that will give you an indication of what is about to come.

Let's get some pull quotes and articles for you to read about just one nation's challenge; Sweden.

"There was a sense that our government didn't have a clear plan for how to manage immigration," says Boel Godner, the mayor of Sodertalje. "And the question that has come up lately, is, can the welfare system bear us all? What's going to happen to everyone who comes here? No one has given the answer to that yet."

For immigration to work where the people lack education, technical skill, and cultural literacy; if they come to work hard and contribute to society, most of the friction will come only from the indigenous population who are on the lower side of the economic spectrum whose wages are depressed (another reason to keep unskilled immigration at low levels, it impacts most your nation's most economically vulnerable). However - what if they come to only take?

"In the U.S., you always say that it's the land of dreams, yeah? I say it's actually Sweden," says Yakoub, who's now chairman of the Assyrian Community of Sweden. "Here you can get an education from kindergarten up to university without paying one cent. Society takes care of you because the social welfare system is good. Generally, it's an open society with good values."

Who will pay for that?

Hope is not a plan.

Andreae, Sodertalje's city manager, says he hopes Swedish politicians find concrete ways to manage immigration instead of closing its doors to war refugees. He would like to see other municipalities take in more refugees, for example, since Sodertalje's resources are now stretched.

He says he chose to work in Sodertalje in part because it reflects Sweden's openness to the world. He hopes that doesn't change.

"Because I like to think that the Swedes still are a very tolerant people," he says. "But of course, when you are challenged in that view, when things are happening, that situation can move, and it can move quite rapidly."

At the end of the last decade, I had a Swedish Lt.Col. tell me what he saw in his nation's future - he saw blood. 

He spoke of the same, "...move quite rapidly" that Sodertalje mentions above. He saw the cowardly politicians refusing to do anything until it was too late ... and then he warned that there would be dark times. So far, the trend line is going exactly in that direction. Who can the Swedes blame? Who will they turn to?

SD is deemed anathema, so no party bargains with it to pass legislation, not even indirectly through the media. Both Left and “Right” seek to isolate and discredit it. Nevertheless, SD has played kingmaker on certain crucial legislation, particularly the annual budget. In keeping with its policy to drive from power every government that refuses to reduce immigration, it brought down an Alliance for Sweden government in early 2014. Recent weeks saw a repeat of this scenario, when SD joined the Alliance in opposing the leftist budget, forcing the government to call for elections in March 2015.

But then something remarkable occurred: The two major blocs compromised not only on the current budget, but also on future budgets and power-sharing all the way to 2022. The left and “right” alliances worked out trade-offs so that elections need not take place in March, allowing the Left to rule until 2018, with the “Right” possibly taking over from 2018 until 2022. Not only does this political cartel deprive SD of its pivotal role but, short of winning a majority of parliamentary seats in 2018, it has no meaningful legislative role for the next eight years, during which time the immigration issue is off the table.

Poorer. Less educated. More violent. Domestic strife. That is the future the Swedish politicians are setting up their own country for.

The relentless stream of migrants to Europe — propelled by the war in Syria and turmoil across the Middle East and the Horn of Africa — has combined with economic troubles and rising fear of Islamic radicalism to fuel a backlash against immigrants, directed most viciously at Muslims.

The simmering resentments and suspicions have driven debates across Europe about tighter controls on immigration. Worries about immigration have helped buoy right-wing parties in Britain, Denmark, France and Hungary. German officials recorded more than 70 attacks against mosques from 2012 to 2014, including an arson, and the police in Britain have recorded an increase in hate crimes against Muslims. There are few places where the turn against immigrants is more surprising than Sweden, where a solid core of citizens still supports the 65-year-old open door policy toward immigrants facing hardship that has long earned international respect for the country.

On Friday, hundreds of Swedes gathered outside the royal palace in Stockholm and in other cities to show solidarity with the Muslim population a day after an unknown assailant threw a bottle filled with flammable liquid at a mosque in the northern city of Uppsala and sprayed racist slogans on the building. The firebomb caused no injuries and did not damage the building.

But as each day brings more reports of immigrants who have boarded ships and sneaked across European borders, the famous tolerance of the Swedes is being tested as never before.

Despite a lackluster economy, Sweden was third behind only Germany and France in the number of people registering for asylum in 2012, according to the Migration Policy Institute in Washington. Relative to its population, Sweden received the second-highest share of asylum applications in the European Union after Malta, the institute says.
Continue reading the main story

The Syrian conflict has boosted the number of asylum seekers. Of 81,000 people seeking asylum in Sweden in 2014, roughly half were from Syria,

More than ever, there is a warning Mark Steyn gave that everyone in the West needs to keep in mind as this growing wave heads our way from the failed parts of the world;

If the political culture forbids respectable politicians from raising certain topics, then the electorate will turn to unrespectable ones.

It doesn't have to be this way. Smart, humane, and economically sound policies are out there to keep things manageable without asking a people to commit cultural suicide or to turn to their darker natures to preserve their unique culture.

However, we are dealing with people of the political left here. They will destroy their neighbor's house and their own just to prove to themselves that they are ... well ... what they are.

As the world continues to suffer from conflicts and political extremism, Sweden received the most asylum applications in the world from 2009 through 2013, according to the U.N. refugee agency, and the country expects that the number of asylum seekers in 2015 will break records. "Our society should be prepared to receive between 80,000 and 105,000 asylum seekers in 2015," said Sweden's Migration Board, the government agency in charge of handling immigration issues. Sweden's refugee policy is also praised by many international humanitarian agencies, as it stepped up its efforts for Syrians by granting permanent residency to refugees fleeing the conflict. In light of the worsening humanitarian crisis in Syria, Sweden opened its borders to all Syrian asylum seekers by granting them permanent residency.

However, Sweden's liberal policy towards refugees has resulted in decreasing tolerance in Swedish society toward immigrants. In the face of a massive influx of refugees and asylum seekers, Swedish nationalism has been on the rise, as far-right groups are deeply critical of the center-left government's policies towards immigration. The Swedish Democrats, a nationalist party that is also the third largest, favors deep cuts to immigration, as there have been growing hostilities towards immigrant communities.

Clever political games that lets the problem grow while bottling up political redress of grievances? Not smart. Facts like this are hard to ignore - and dangerous for politicians to try to hide for long.

Statistics concerning ethnicity and religion when it comes to criminals are not to be found in the world’s most politically correct country with probably the fastest-growing share of Muslims: Sweden. The risk of being raped in Sweden during one’s lifetime is one out of four, which is probably equal to the risk of being raped in any other country under Muslim attack. When it comes to rapes, Islamized Sweden is already in a state of war. If we want to have a hint about who is committing these tens of thousands of rapes and other types of sexual assaults yearly, we can turn to another Scandinavian country, Sweden’s neighbor Norway, the country most similar to Sweden. Here 100 percent of all rapes in the last five years in Oslo were committed by immigrants from “non-Western” countries. In Stavanger, a major Norwegian city, 90 percent of rapes are committed by “immigrants.”

What is one thing 'ole Sal watching in 2015? The immigration crisis in Europe is unsustainable and things cannot stay the same. This will cause conflict, in what form, where, and towards whom? Ahhh ... that is the tricky bit.

One way or another, be glad you have a USA passport. We have out own immigration issues ... but nothing like over there.

Where to? Other nations, those who have a problem but not as bad as Sweden (that is getting worse). The Netherlands started its turn back to a more restrictionist policy a few years ago, and may avoid the extreme strife that Sweden seems to be setting itself up for.



Sad thing is, those who are making that huge risk to leave their horrible nations behind are very real people with very real concerns. If I were born in their nations, I wouldn't want to live there either. 

That being said, small nations who have over centuries built a civil society that is a magnet to the world are under no obligation to let those centuries of hard work be destroyed by letting themselves be swamped by waves of others coming to take. No nation is obliged to commit suicide so pampered UN bureaucrats can say nice things about them.