The Ballistic Missile Calculus Changes

Technology does not stand still.

Capabilities do not remain constant.

What was the great, unassailable threat today, may just be mitigated in to nuisance tomorrow.

In war - especially in long periods of peace - you need to be humble about the abilities of your weapons and your ability to see the future clearly. You also need to be careful not to make your enemy 10-feet tall or a petty threat to be dismissed.

Watch for developments that change the odds and calculus of threats and capabilities.

As we continue to think about the returning threat of ballistic missiles targeted to either land or sea, this development is significant.

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency ... conducted a successful test today against an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) class target. This test was the first salvo engagement of a threat-representative ICBM target by two Ground Based Interceptors (GBI), which were designated GBI-Lead, and GBI-Trail for the test. The GBI-Lead destroyed the reentry vehicle, as it was designed to do. The GBI-Trail then looked at the resulting debris and remaining objects, and, not finding any other reentry vehicles, selected the next ‘most lethal object’ it could identify, and struck that, precisely as it was designed to do.
...
“This was the first GBI salvo intercept of a complex, threat-representative ICBM target, and it was a critical milestone,” said MDA Director Air Force Lt. Gen. Samuel A. Greaves. “The system worked exactly as it was designed to do, and the results of this test provide evidence of the practicable use of the salvo doctrine within missile defense. The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is vitally important to the defense of our homeland, and this test demonstrates that we have a capable, credible deterrent against a very real threat.”

The GMD element of the ballistic missile defense system provides combatant commanders the capability to engage and destroy intermediate and long-range ballistic missile threats

Step by step. Increment by increment - a significant capability is emerging.

H/t MV.