Tuesday, September 18, 2012

So, Who Has the Branch Plan?

Since DEC of 09, you've read my stuff about this - no need to repeat it again.

After President Obama's West Point speech of 2009, many of us told you this was a distinct possibility. Operational Planning 101, a couple thousand years of written military history, and the cultural norms of the Pashtun told anyone who was listening where the smart money was.

They will not let us retreat in peace.

After all, that is not how it is done. The weak horse must be treated as such, natch.

Via the LongWarJournal;
The US military today suspended most of its combat patrols with Afghan forces as the green-on-blue, or insider attacks by Afghan security personnel on Coalition troops, continue to spike. The training of Afghan forces and their partnering with US troops has been the cornerstone of the Obama administration's strategy to hand over security to the Afghans as the US completes its withdrawal by 2014.

"The order effectively suspends 'until further notice' most of the operations which US and Afghan troops conduct side by side," CBS News reported today. "At higher headquarters, Afghans and Americans will still work together, but in the field small unit operations putting Afghan soldiers alongside Americans ... will be suspended unless an exception is granted by a commanding general."
Behold the fruits of a calendar-based Plan, AKA orderly retreat.
According to The Long War Journal's Special Report, Green-on-Blue attacks in Afghanistan: the data, insider attacks account for 15% of Coalition casualties so far this year. There have been a total of 60 such attacks on Coalition forces since 2008, and they have occurred in 18 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, with the vast majority of the attacks taking place in Helmand province (17 attacks) followed by Kandahar province (9 attacks). Since 2008, insider attacks have killed 119 Coalition troops and affiliates and have wounded 98. The number of attacks has spiked since 2008, starting with 2 attacks reported in 2008; to 5 in 2009; to 6 in 2010; to 15 in 2011; to 32 in 2012. The steep rise in attacks parallels the increased pairing of Coalition troops with Afghan forces in training and mentoring situations, and occurs as the overall number of Coalition troops is sharply declining due to the planned transfer of Afghan security to Afghan forces by 2014.
It did not have to end this way, we had a solid conditions-based plan - but we elected people with no knowledge of military history, mal-advised, and were enabled by uniformed leaders who forgot their Sheehan and McMaster; too comfortable in their positions of power and influence.

We invited this.

Building off the previous post from last night, does anyone really believe this statement?
... US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta dismissed the green-on-blue attacks as the "last gasp" of the Taliban.
No it's not. It is to ensure that we leave under fire - that we are defeated; and that they get credit for it.

The enemy has some good operational planners too. We have thrown this away.

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