Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Sal's Eightball Says ....

I've done a lot less political blogg'n this cycle than others, but as today is election day - cut me some slack as I do this every cycle.

First things first; go vote. If you don't vote, you are a subject, not a citizen. Sit down and shut up.  Vote, then we can talk.

As I want to make sure I give ya'll a stick to beat me with, I'm going to make my predictions - though in the finest traditions of the naval service - there will be enough wiggle there to give me room to claim victory in most scenarios.  Here we go.

I'm sticking by my estimate of tomorrow's results that I posted on Bryan's FB last week. I'm a pessimist this year, as a result I'm calling Romney 271 with electoral votes. Here's my map.

If Romney has a good night, I see OH, PA, NV, and IA going his way for 321. That is still less than Barone, but close.

Could President Obama win? Sure - but if he does it would have to be a close flip of one state from my 271 scenario above, but to be blunt - I am having a cognitive block seeing Obama being re-elected because if he is, then economically our republic is heading the way of Argentina.

I don't want to go there.

In the Senate - heartbreak in (R) land with Democrats keeping the Senate with 51 to Republican 49 seats. Maine's Senator Elect Angus King will - with the rest of the (I) caucus with the Democrats. If we see a Romney 321 wave, then you can swap that to 51 Republican, 49 Democrat.

In the House, Republicans will pick up a net of two seats to bring their total to 243 seats. If we see a Romney 321 wave, they will gain an additional four seats on top of the two to 247.

Why won't I go out there and say it is a wave or non-wave? Simple - I don't trust polls anymore, and no one is paying me, so I can hedge, but I really want to believe the 321 for many of the reasons my on-again/off-again girlfriend Peggy says.
There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.

1 comment:

Jay said...

Great results! Good way to start the day here in Afghanistan, cheers! Forward!