Roy Amara is an engineer and futurist (long before that term became trendy) at the Institute for the Future think tank. Amara's law is probably best illustrated by the "Hype Cycle," a term coined by Gartner Group to characterize the hype or "Peak of Inflated Expectations" and subsequent "Trough of Disillusionment" before reaching the "Slope of Enlightenment" and "Plateau of Productivity".
"Trough of Disillusionment" - power phrase of the week. I think that comes towards the last third of your first sea tour.
More geek glory at the link that demands your full read as it is spot on.
Brook's Law explains LCS.
Thackara's Law explains trying to make a pocket-battleship sized ship "stealthy."
Reed's Law explains ... unofficial milblogging networks.
Hat tip Chap.
2 comments:
Verily - one can almost map threat assessments to this as well...
w/r, SJS
Mi rammarico che non posso ora partecipare alla discussione. Pochissime informazioni. Ma l'argomento mi interessa molto.
okechukwumn bb4arg48
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