Saturday, November 01, 2008

Polls trending to 46: shall I quote myself?

Hey, it's my blog - why not. Remember back in SEP?
If you note, I circled 46. Here is why. McCain will come down and Obama will come up as more and more undecided come off the sidelines and the Democrat smears strip off a few weak sisters for McCain-Palin. I believe that Bill Clinton's 1992 43% is the absolute bottom for a Democrat after 8 years of an unpopular Republican. Obama and/or Biden could be found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy and still get 43%. He gets an extra 3% from that fact that Obama has such a sound goodwill among the young and misty-eyed.

McCain-Palin can count on a much lower 33% unshakable base, 4% lower than Bush 41's take in '92. Maverick McCain is getting a 13% bump up via 7% who are McCain Democrats and Independents, and 7% of Republicans and Libertarian Independents who were sobered up by Palinomania.

That gets us to what I think will settle out by 01 OCT to a 46-46 tie, on average - bouncing around the margin of error. Here is where the debates and the big "Mo" comes in. If the highs and lows are trending a little one way or another and the debates are a draw, McCain could have a chance to win.
Let's give 2% to each side. That leaves 6% to fight over --- that squishy middle. In that case, it is a long election night and all the Electoral College.

That is one option. The other is that McCain keep getting a percentage point or less a week as people come home and others realize what Obama really is. That is a situation where Obama falls below or stalls at 46%. Obama has to stay above 46% in order to stop the bleeding of support. If he can stay at 48%, I think he will win.
Now look at Ragnar's little graph.

It ain't over Shipmate.

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