How Many Votes Does a Military Budget Buy?

A regular topic here is the unfortunate state of our most reliable ally's military; Great Britain.

As we start to face the result of our ever growing welfare state while still desiring a larger military - it is best to look across the pond to see where a few more decades of expanding welfare state mentality will take you;

The study by the Centre for Social Justice highlighted that £36 billion went on working-age welfare payments in 2011/12 in the capital, compared with defence spending of £33.8 billion.
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The report by the think tank, which was founded by Iain Duncan Smith before he became Work and Pensions Secretary, argued Britain is blighted by “welfare ghettos” where large numbers of people have been abandoned on unemployment benefits.
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The number of children in workless households, nearly one in five according to the report, was the second highest in Europe, second only to the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

Parts of Denbighshire in Wales were among the worst affected areas, with 67 per cent of people aged between 16 and 64 in the Rhyl West ward dependent on unemployment benefits.
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The Centre for Social Justice, which supports the Government’s welfare reforms, said the UK cannot afford to delay them. However, Labour and Green Party MPs claim the changes risk creating “no-go areas” for both the working poor and benefit claimants, by driving people out of some central London districts.

...and yet they continue to allow on this crowded island, the importation of hundreds to thousands of under-educated, lower skilled immigrants - flooding the lower skilled job market and depressing wages. The demand signal will only increase.

If you cannot "sell" the public on the needs for a strong defense, then their elected representatives will apportion funds in line with this electoral reality.

If your ruling class seems to be force-moding the future of the nation from a dependency POV, then you have larger problems.

The War in Yemen, with Katherine Zimmerman - on Midrats

It is a civil war, tribal war, religious war, and proxy war with local, regional, and global implications.

The specific and larger implications of the war in Yemen will be our topic for the full hour this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern with our guest Katherine Zimmerman.

Katherine Zimmerman is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the research manager for AEI’s Critical Threats Project. As AEI’s senior analyst studying terrorist groups, she focuses on the global al Qaeda network and covers the Salafi-jihadi movement and related trends in the Middle East and Africa. She also specializes in al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Yemen, al Shabaab in Somalia, and al Qaeda in the Sahel.

Ms. Zimmerman has testified before Congress about the threats to US national security interests emanating from al Qaeda and its network. She has also briefed members of Congress, their staff, and US military, diplomatic, and intelligence community personnel. Her analyses have been widely published, including in CNN.com, Foreign Affairs, FoxNews.com, The Hill, The Huffington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. She is a term member with the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the RESOLVE Network Research Advisory Council.

Join us live if you can, but if you miss the show you can always listen to the archive at Spreaker. 

If you use iTunes, you can add Midrats to your podcast list simply by clicking the iTunes button at the main showpage - or you can just click here.

Fullbore Friday

It isn't often that a ship's name so perfectly captures her nature.

Look at this timeline.

- March 1940: a 441 foot enemy blockade runner, captured after the sea cocks were open and a fire burned for 4-days.
- January 1941: sent to the yards for conversion to ... an escort carrier.
- June 1941: conversion complete.
- September 1941: first convoy mission, embarking her full complement of eight Martlets (F4F Wildcats) of No. 802 Squadron FAA.

18-months from warprize to warship.

She was in four convoys and her aircraft shot down seven Luftwaffe Fw 200 Condor bombers/maritime patrol aircraft.

That last convoy was her last ... the epic Convoy HG 76.

Read the whole thing, but so ended a fullbore ship; HMS AUDACITY;

As the sky was darkening, an aircraft reported a U boat 15 miles to the port (left) side of
the convoy. It was the U-107, although hunted, it could not be found. This U Boat was bringing in others, namely, the U-108; U-71; U-751 and U-567.

In spite of an accident involving the illumination of the convoy by starshell, when the escorts were returning, no attack actually materialised and the 20th December 1941 passed without incident. 

During that afternoon, two patrolling Martlett's had spotted 2 U Boats ahead, and this enabled the convoy to steer around them. During the 21st, several U Boats were sighted, 2 of which were 25 miles astern. Sub Lt Brown spotted them, side by side, with a plank across the gap. He strafed the boats with gunfire. Walker sent back 4 ships, but they escaped. 

At 1130 hrs 2 more were sighted to port to which Marigold and Convolvulus investigated. Not long afterwards another was spotted 10 miles to port and at 1500 hrs another was sighted. Walker surmised that the following night would be rather interesting.

The convoy sailed into the night, Audacity moving to her normal night place away from the convoy. Walker recommended that she went to port side of the convoy, but McKendrick preferred starboard (landside) and he sailed off without an escort as 2 had departed, damaged. 

Walker moved away from the convoy to "fake" an attack but the convoy decided it was real and threw up snowflake in abundance thus revealing their true position and thwarting Walkers attempt at fooling the U Boats. 

As Walker raced back he was in time to see a norwegian tanker, Annavore, some 3324 tons, explode in flames at the rear of the convoy. Walker mistakenly ordered a "buttercup" attack and the convoy again fired off illumination, showing up the Audacity. U-751 could not believe their luck, striking the carrier aft, going out of control. 

Audacity stopped engines and, as escorts hurried toward her, the U-751 came in as close as to be opened up on by an oerlikon gun. Two more torpedoes and the Audacity sank in 10 minutes.

Interesting side-note on the AUDACITY's "airwing."

One of her pilots? The legendary Captain Eric Melrose "Winkle" Brown, CBE, DSC, AFC, Hon FRAeS, RN.

Vietnam Plays a Smart Game

For everyone with their eyes on China, this news from Vietnam is nothing but good.

On August 5, the European Union’s (EU) chief diplomat Federica Mogherini will sign a new defense agreement with Vietnam, the first such security deal Brussels will have with a Southeast Asian nation.

It is the latest indication that the EU is trying to forge a closer defense relationship with the region and Vietnam in particular, which is at the heart of disputes with China in the South China Sea.

After taking part in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum and an EU-ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference in Bangkok between August 1 and 2, Mogherini will head to Hanoi to sign “an agreement on Vietnam’s participation in our European military and civilian missions”, she told regional media earlier this week.
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It will be the fourth FPA the EU has signed with an Asia-Pacific nation, after Australia, New Zealand and South Korea.
The deal comes as the EU’s relations with Vietnam are flourishing.

With the USA growing closer each year as well, this is solid stuff.

ISAFication of the Strait of Hormuz

So, you think you have friends?

If you say "1,000 Ship Navy" - what does that actually mean?

Which nations do you expect to punt, and which will stand?

So much clarity in the latest Strait of Hormuz crisis.

I'm pondering over at USNIBlog.

Come on by.

Keeping an Eye on the Long Game: Part LXXXIII

China has a plan.

It isn't a secret. She isn't hiding anything.

She is persistent, steady, focused, and driven. Like a slow rising tide, she is moving on to the global stage more and more and more.

In just Africa, you can see it. All clear. All for you to see.

Take time to read the superb report from CSIS - but the graphics should be enough to get your attention.

How Things Can Get Real Stupid Real Fast

It is helpful to keep in mind that as difficult as it is to understand why your neighbors and family members make the decisions they do in the course of their lives, realize it can be equally opaque to understand why nations do the things they do.

History is, on balance, not just a story of struggle and progress – it is also the story of nations and leaders making decisions that both at the time and in hindsight, are reckless. With too much hope and too little appreciation of risk, nations can start down paths that lead places no one wants to go.

The ‘ole planner in me can’t help but take strange little articles in open source and play them out four more turns – about three different ways, flipping one or the other assumption/variable to see where they can lead. From Most Likely COA to most Dangerous COA – the exercise can be … a bit maddening.

The Austro-Hungarians could have used a better run of this exercise  early last century – and we sure didn’t do all that great of a job of it in 2003.

Along those lines, last night I simply could not get this little bit out of my head;

Iran has reportedly asked China for its support in the Gulf, as Royal Navy Type 45 Destroyer HMS Duncan arrived in the region.
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Rezaei made the remarks on Sunday in a meeting with head of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Song Tao, who who arrived in Tehran on Sunday, reports Iranian news agency Mehr news.

"We live in the energy region of the world. Any kind of insecurity and conflict in this region would carry harm to global peace and security,” Rezaei is quoted as telling Song Tao.

I don’t think the time is quite ripe for China to make its military statement on the global stage, but there is a non-zero chance that smart Chinese planners are doing the math right now on what a tottering former empire a bit over extended and with few friends might provide to a nation looking to make a point.

Weakness is not a good play for Britain right now. I really hope her European friends start to back her play, but I have my doubts.

When that fails, I’m sure C5F has the plans in place to backfill and form up with the Royal Navy.

That is something I hope the Chinese will see. Not only is the time not ripe for them to take the stage, we will not let the Royal Navy stand alone against anyone.

China should smile and say polite things to Iran, and then do nothing. They have that luxury, for now, they should continue to enjoy it.