Monday, April 04, 2022

Russia's Last Gasp War?

It's been a couple of years since we visited Peter Zeihan, and two weeks ago he posted a video that just pulls it all together to make a solid point about the pivot point the Russo-Ukrainian war is ... at least for the Russians.

The Ukrainian economic and demographic numbers are a nightmare on their own, but let's put that struggling people to the side for a moment and look at the Russians. 

As interesting and informative are the tactical level efforts and changing "supply convoy" of the day pictures, the real interesting and informative to ponder are the larger movements in play; economics, geography, and demographics. 

The real frightening part is at the end as it covers a topic we discussed in part on yesterday's Midrats; fertilizer.

The full video below is worth your time, but I want you to focus on the second half. It is only around six minutes.

I would just like to make one little note; I put a "?" in the title as I do not fully buy in to the quasi-presentism of "Russia will disappear."

Russia has a history that goes back in to the mists of time. She has come back from the Mongol invasions of the Middle Ages and the depredations of the first half of the 20th Century on to be stronger.

While it takes a generation or two to recover from the demographic hole she is in, it can be done. It requires a national "great awakening" that may never come for Russia - but I am not of a mind to count the Russians out. I don't think the future would be that easy, or boring.

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