Tuesday, March 31, 2020

April: Mensis Horriblis

If you are at a high level of anxiety right now because of COVID-19, you probably need to look at different coping mechanisms. We are weeks from the peak.

There are a lot of places out there that have just plain bad information coming from either bad players, ignorance, malice, or what could be the worst - those on either side trying to find political gain from a pandemic.

Others can Monday morning quarterback or time travel if they wish, but we are where we are & plus or minus a few days, I doubt within a half-standard deviation anyone would have done anything different to bring us to a different place.

The more we know about the virus and the more we have solid metrics coming in from Europe, the better our modeling will be.

I think the best place to go is the CDC. Check on a regular basis as they are updating modeling as more information reveals itself from the data, but the critical takeaway is that we are heading in to the most difficult month.

Mid-April will be rough.

Don't be surprised, unprepared, or paralyzed by panic. Be informed.

These graphs should tell you what you need to know.

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