Not Our War; Not Our Problem

Today I want us to return to the same subject we covered last Wednesday; Turkish adventurism.

Russia is coming in to play, as is Iran. Turkey is embedding herself more and more.

I'm not an alarmist, but I don't like the odds here. The USA needs to make clear that nothing that derives from this is our concern nor that of NATO.

More over at USNIBlog.

The Islamic State Was Defeated; Long Live the Islamic State

 

If you haven't clued in yet, the Islamic State may have lost its caliphate in Syria and Iraq, but it is far from done. A solid comparison would be to call it a franchise, like its Al Qaeda forerunner.

As we will continue to remind everyone here, you need to keep and eye on Africa - the Islamic States more active franchise. 

Great article from Critical Threats. 

Maj. Gen. Dagvin Anderson, the commander of US Special Operations Command Africa, gave a sobering assessment of the increasing security threats posed by al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and their ilk in Africa in an AEI webinar on September 9 (see the video and transcript here). He warned of African al Qaeda affiliates’ growing responsiveness to their parent organization and highlighted al Qaeda’s “methodical” playbook for coercing and controlling local populations in West Africa while remaining under the US policy radar. Maj. Gen. Anderson acknowledged the US military’s small footprint in Africa and the centrality of non-military challenges in stoking Salafi-jihadi insurgencies, underscoring the need for a clear strategy and more coordination with international partners and the US interagency to combat the Salafi-jihadi threat.

The background problem is that Islamic fundamentalist organizations will take advantage of a continent soaked in poor governance, corruption, unsustainable demographics, environmental devastation, and economic systems that cannot support a modern standard of living for the surging masses.

There are islands of hope here and there in sub-Saharan Africa, but those trend lines are not outpacing the advance of the Islamic State.

The US needs a policy framework for Africa that enables prioritizing and scaling US responses to prevent local conflicts from spiraling into regional crises, as well as rolling back the crises that have already passed this threshold. US Africa Command (AFRICOM) is resource-constrained and likely to face further cuts. In any circumstance, AFRICOM should not be the sole or lead actor for a US approach to African security. The factors that underpin the Salafi-jihadi movement are political, not military. Addressing the fragility that feeds extremism requires a new holistic strategy, and preventing or reducing inflammatory proxy interventions requires both diplomatic leadership and leverage. The US needs to rethink its engagement in Africa — quickly — before the continent’s developing threats are more immediate and more difficult to address.

The USA military cannot "fix" this area of the world, only help. Ultimately, those nations will have to fix themselves. Unfortunately, many of their best and brightest are not staying and working to build a better future, but are moving to Europe and the Americas. The brain drain is a challenge no one really has good metrics on, but it is there.

That too is part of the problem - and a much harder one to fix.

The Market Will Tell You What You're Short of

For navalists, the very short answer to the question of, "How many carriers do we really need?" is "More." 

Why is that the answer? Simple ... look at the length of deployments and the foolish "double pumping" of the CVN we have.

"High demand - low density" is just a PPT way of saying we didn't buy enough of what we actually need.

Let's take that simple economics concept over to the Army.

What are they short of? Remember when we were naked to attack from the Iranians? We don't want to have that happen again.

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and Patriot missile batteries remain among the most frequently deployed units in the service, Army senior leaders have said previously. They’ve also acknowledged a need to ease the burden on soldiers manning those systems.

...

“Every Patriot unit assigned to the 32nd AAMDC was forward deployed during this period of time," Stewart said Wednesday at the conference. "More importantly, every weapon system in our arsenal, to include C-RAM, Stinger, Avenger, Sentinel Radar, Patriot, THAAD, all those were deployed forward during this time.”

Here is a question; our allies have a lot of air defense forces. How many of them have deployed to help us during this surge? 

In NATO alone, the Germans, Dutch, Spanish and Greeks have Patriot. The Romanians just got their last month, so we'll give them a pass.

The Army has been funding something ... but too much of that and not enough of this.

Imagine the requirements we would face in a war with even a half-peer.

Missile Barges and the Modern Auxillary Cruiser with Chris Rawley

 Turning merchant ships in to warships is a story as old as mankind. From war canoe to privateers to auxiliary cruisers fo the modern era - they always fit a certain niche in the drive to control the seas. What of today? 

What options are there if we need the ability to get as much "national will" downrange and over the horizon as soon as possible? Combine that question with a new one, "Where are all the VLS cells we need?" - and you have a great episode of Midrats. 

Returning to Midrats this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern to discuss these and related issues will be Chris Rawley. 

Captain Chris Rawley is Reserve Chief of Staff for Commander, Naval Surface Forces, helping to oversee 3,800 reserve sailors supporting fleet units around the world. During his 28 year military career, Rawley has filled a variety of leadership positions in naval, expeditionary, and joint special operations units afloat and ashore. He has deployed to Afghanistan, Iraq, throughout Africa, the Persian Gulf, and Western Pacific. Rawley has a degree from Texas A&M University, earned an MBA at George Washington University, and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College and Joint Forces Staff College. In his civilian role, Chris is the CEO of Harvest Returns, a platform for investing in agriculture.

If you use iTunes, you can add Midrats to your podcast list simply by clicking the iTunes button at the main showpage - or you can just click here.

Scratch a Turk, You Find an Ottoman

If you haven't noticed, Turkey is acting like it is trying to pick a fight with everyone it can reach.

Details and thoughts over at USNIBlog.

Check it out and tell me what you think.

"Record Breaking" Deployments - Nothing to be Proud of

In a time of relative peace, when we are in general agreement that for over the last decade+ we have overworked our Sailors and under-maintained our ships - I'm not sure breaking these kind of records is anything our Navy should be proud of; 

Destroyer USS Stout (DDG-55) recently achieved a record-breaking deployment length after operating at sea for more than 200 days, the Navy announced.

As of Sept. 26, the destroyer had been at sea for 208 straight days, breaking cruiser USS San Jacinto’s (CG-56) and aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower’s (CVN-69) records, according to a Navy press release.

...

Destroyer USS Kidd (DDG-100) also recently wrapped up a record deployment after performing a series of counter-narcotics missions within U.S. 4th Fleet. The destroyer arrived at Naval Station Everett, Wash., its homeport, on Sept. 21.

Our Sailors and their ships will give us all they have when asked - and we should be proud of their hard work and loyalty to their Navy. As for those who sent them; a responsible service and nation will not ask for such sacrifices so cheaply;

“As a Sentinel ship, Stout spent 139 days in direct or associated support of the task force to ensure the free flow of commerce,” the service added. “Stout provided overwatch for more than 550 vessels as they transited critical chokepoints and delivered 1,500 maritime awareness calls to regional commercial shipping.”

... 

“This deployment has been extremely challenging, but Kidd set the standard for operational mission execution and readiness,” Cmdr. Nathan Wemett, the commanding officer of Kidd, said in a statement. “I thank all the Sailors and U.S. Coast Guardsmen who overcame many obstacles in order to carry out our mission.”

Not a record ... but a grim milestone.

It is clear that we have learned nothing and changed nothing since 2017 to our great collective shame.

Shame on everyone here with 3 to 4 stars on their uniform who refused to say, "no."

The Most Important BILAT Exercise You Haven't Heard of

This growing military relationship is probably one of the most important to watch as we approach the middle decades of the 21st Century.

Japan-India Maritime Exercise “JIMEX”

The Indo-Pacific Deployment (IPD) units, JS KAGA and JS IKAZUCHI, will conduct

bilateral exercise “JIMEX” with the Indian Navy (IN) as described below.

1. Objectives

(1) To improve JMSDF’s tactical capabilities

(2) To strengthen the relationship with the IN

2. Period

SEP 26 (SAT) – SEP 28 (MON), 2020

3. Exercise Area

 At sea and airspace in the west of India

4. Participating Units

(1) JMSDF

JS KAGA, JS IKAZUCHI

(2) IN

INS CHENNAI, INS TARKASH, INS DEEPAK and aircraft (P-8I and Mig-29K)

It appears both navies are bringing their varsity squad. All free nations should welcome this hopefully growing relationship.