First of all, I want you to look at the latest Rasmussen. Just soak in it a bit - and I will give you the "Chartist 101" overview of what it is telling you.
There is a simple concept that is essential to understanding trends in charts; "Higher-Highs and Higher-Lows." Equally important, is the ability to understand "Lower-Highs and Lower-Lows."
Nothing runs in a straight line, and moving averages are usually late in showing you where the direction is going - this is especially true in emotion based polls. It can be "fear and greed" as in stocks, or "love and hate" in politics.
This is what this chart is trying to tell you where we are at the end of 2009 when it comes to those who are very passionate "Pro" or "Anti" Obama.