Thursday, December 08, 2005

Will Poland have to save Europe again?

Most everyone should know that without King John Sobieski of Poland, Vienna would have fallen and the Turks would have swept into central Europe. Poland, of course, was rewarded later by being carved up wholesale.

On two fronts,
militarily and socially, we see Poland taking a leadership position in the reality based community of Europe.

For the anti-American-hipper-than-thou Euro/AmerLeftists out there, I ask you one question on the military side. What is stopping you from being blackmailed by a insane Iranian and/or Islamist ruler? Will Germany rely on France or the UK to use their nukes as a counter weight? Denmark? The Netherlands? Sweden? Do you really assume that the US will always be there? We are just one election, timed with an "unknown unknown" event, away from a return to pre-Wilsonian foreign policy by action or default. You (Europe) do not have the capability to project conventional power without the U.S. in anything but a permissive environment - much less sustain offensive operations beyond your borders or deter any force beyone a Parisian Mime.

Will a weak sister leader in Europe be willing to absorbe a nuke strike on Antwerp or Olso or Milan when someone with an IRBM calls their bluff? Will the EU call for the nuking of millions of Muslims in response?

Wouldn't it be better to have the ability to take out a cheap, but effective IRBM? Just asking.

"That will never happen.." is not an acceptable response (see yesterday's post). European history is full of "That's not possible" being possible. If you agree, then why is Poland the only one thinking about joining the project?

Here is something else to put in your cheese and cucumber sandwich; if the Western Leftists get their way and the U.S. is defeated in Iraq - mark my words - the American public will on balance say "The hell with it.." and especially if there is the hint of and European blade sticking out of our backs as we go home with pools of blood behind us - much like the British towards "East of Aden" in the early 70s - we will just say, "Over to you." Odds of this attitude in the above situation, 50/50.

If we do that, everything not in the Pacific comes home. Including perhaps the ABM maybe-base in Poland. Without the U.S.,
- Europe can no longer secure its non-Norwegian oil.
- Europe can no longer project power.
- Europe can no longer defend itself from a highly destabilized nuclear and IRBM holding Iranian, Saudi (yes, they have IRBM - CS-2 P.o.S, but they will upgrade soon), perhaps others.
- Europe, without gutting its already unsupportable nanny-state, cannot expand its military spending to 4%+ GDP to replace American capabilities.

So, CIA flights don't seem that bad, now do they?

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