Oh, so the UN Will Make Afghanistan Work?

Will someone please save us from our experts? 

Question everyone. Defer to no one. 

If you have learned nothing the last two decades, at least know this; our elite aren’t. Our best institutions do not produce the best product. Credentialism is the last refuge of the incompetent. 

You have to assume these are well meaning people, but building off of yesterday’s post – let this week be a lesson to everyone that our self-selecting elites are like the Bourbons, “They had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.” 

I’m not sure I can do more but quote from the latest article in FP by By Charli Carpenter, a professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and director of Human Security Lab, and Lise Howard, a professor at Georgetown University and president of the Academic Council on the United Nations System. 

This is like a parallel universe where Afghanistan - her history, culture and predilections - are either unknown or are somewhere in the middle of the bell curve internationally. A world where the UN’s track record from Rwanda, to Iraq, to Haiti and other places was one of competence, resilience, and success. A planet where hundreds of billions of dollars were not just poured out on to the sands of Afghanistan. 

It sounds nice. It sounds right, but it is not of this universe.

Where do we start?

The United Nations Charter pledges “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.” Afghans have been at war for several generations, and it is likely that the next generation will not see peace unless U.N. member states unite to prevent an intra-Afghan war.

It is almost like there were no Bonn Agreement. Like the UN never discussed Afghanistan. As if hundreds of thousands of uniformed and civilian people from around the world, backed up by almost a trillion dollars didn’t just spend two decades trying to make a silk purse out of a goat’s ear.

… there is a third way, between short-term humanitarian aid and fueling a civil war: deploying a U.N. or U.N.-supported peacekeeping mission. There is a fragile peace to keep in Afghanistan, and it is the duty of the United Nations to help keep it.

Who will pay for it? Who will garrison it (no, Nepal and Indonesia can't sustain what Afghanistan will require)? If you find a lack of historical perspective here or intellectual rigor … there is a reason. We have a parade of appeals to authority in line with a college freshman’s mid-semester paper.

According to the expert Fawaz A. Gerges and many others … According to research by George Mason University’s Philip A. Martin…Scholarly research (whose exactly?)… Research clearly shows... rigorous quantitative research shows (again, whose?)

And then we have comparisons that make you wonder if people writing about international relations have ever really traveled.

In fact, where the international community did not stand up such a mission—such as in Syria and Libya—catastrophic civil wars ensued. In contrast, a U.N. preventive deployment in what was then called Macedonia effectively prevented war.

Do they have any idea what it would have taken in the sectarian stew of Syria and Libya? Also … Macedonia? I’ve served with North Macedonians and Afghans. You cannot even put those two in the same category culturally, geographically, or historically. No. Just, what?

A peace mission need not be large: According to the Human Security Lab report, even a 5,000-troop mission could help. Maj. Ryan van Wie, an instructor of international relations at the U.S. Military Academy, wrote in War on the Rocks this week that a somewhat larger investment of 10,000 to 12,000 peacekeepers could provide even better geographical coverage in Afghanistan.

I guess no one made the effort to review Afghanistan from 2002-2005. Anyone brief them on the Bonn Agreement? The Lead Nation construct? Anyone … or is the past nothing? 

Just behold these jewels of historical incoherence;

… an observer mission can create a foothold from which an imperiled country can climb its way from endless conflict to first fragile and then durable peace… the Taliban’s own historic willingness to innovate and explore multilateral solutions... In 2001, it was the Taliban who offered peace talks, and the United States who rejected them. In 2009, the Taliban themselves indicated they could accept a peacekeeping a mission if it came from Muslim-majority nations and not the West… Georgetown University’s Desha Girod argues that the international community has significant leverage over the Taliban that is conducive to inducing and sustaining arrangements leading to a durable peace...a working paper by Timothy Passmore, Jaroslav Tir, and Johannes Karreth shows that it is actually countries like Afghanistan with a high degree of international economic interdependence that are likeliest to both consent to and cooperate with peacekeeping missions. That’s because for such countries there are “tangible incentives to both allow [peacekeeping operations] and to help fulfill the mission of return to peace.”… Perhaps most importantly, the international community holds what the Taliban want: recognition as a legitimate government and the financial means with which to govern…The Taliban leaders have indicated a desire for assistance and an openness to international guidance. U.N. relief chief Martin Griffiths recently told the BBC that Taliban leaders he spoke with told him regarding human rights issues, “Please help us address these issues together. We need patience. We need to learn how to do it.” This guidance should include assistance with conflict resolution and prevention.

There you go. These are the people and ideas that policy makers listen to, will listen to, and will have a great ability to shape perceptions and policy. They are training the next cohort to staff our institutions. 

Those who spent the last two decades trying to operationalize the concepts that cannot survive outside the intellectual terrarium of academia and thinktankdom need to stand up and – how do the cool kids say – speak “our truth.” 

We have no requirement to be kind, gentle or subtle. Well meaning, highly credentialed people with ill-informed, bad ideas made flesh get people killed, bring sorrow to countless families, empty treasuries, and inject strategic risk into nations and alliances. 

Learn. Adapt. Adjust … and be humble. Demand others who ask for you to assume the risk to life and treasure for their pet theories do the same.

Why International Organizations Fail

People are policy. That explains a lot.

What an amazing bit of commentary that really reads like parody, but it isn’t.

Given the history of the UN from Rwanda to Haiti, you would think there would be a bit more of a humble attitude from the UN, but amazingly, no.

Some of these people seem like they never left the Model UN camp they went to while they waited to take their AP History exams.

One guy, Eide, I remember from my time in Kabul, so let’s do things in reverse and show you the CV of the authors of this article;

Kai Eide, a Norwegian diplomat, served as the United Nations secretary general’s special representative for Afghanistan from 2008 to 2010. Tadamichi Yamamoto, a Japanese diplomat, served in the same role from 2016 to 2020.

Look at this monument to a lack of self-awareness;

Between 2008 and 2020, across six years, we served as U.N. envoys to Afghanistan. In those years, the U.N. endeavored to create openings for the peace process but could not get one underway. Though last year’s agreement between the United States and the Taliban made possible the withdrawal of international forces, it sadly did not create conditions conducive to peace.

Yes, there will be math. That is 12-yrs. You could have fought almost four WWII’s in that time.

12. Years.

The U.N. must now step up and guide Afghanistan away from catastrophe. The alternative, as all-out civil war beckons, is too grim to contemplate.

Who is stepping up again? Who exactly will you guide? Whose money? Whose forces? This is completely disconnected from local history, regional history, hell, global history. 

I sarcastically say on a regular basis, especially on twitter, that “we need new elites.” Q.E.D.

The organization needs to do more. Though two U.N. envoys are currently assigned to Afghanistan, neither is sufficiently empowered to make a difference. … Fortunately, by contrast to times in the past when disagreements among members hobbled effective responses to global crises, the U.N. is in a good position to act. The United States, Russia and China — three of the five permanent members of the Security Council — all have a stake in Afghanistan’s stability. Along with Pakistan, they issued statements in recent months calling for a reduction in violence and a negotiated political settlement that protects the rights of women and minorities. They also encouraged the U.N. to play “a positive and constructive role in the Afghan peace and reconciliation process.” Taken together, the statements demonstrate a hopeful amount of political will.

Statements? Did no one consider a strongly worded letter instead?

Again, how can you parody the unparodyable? 

The U.N. must step into this vacuum. In the first instance, the secretary general must immediately convene the Security Council and seek a clear mandate to empower the U.N., both inside the country and at the negotiating table. That would mean the United States, Russia, China and other members of the council coming together to authorize a special representative to act as a mediator. With the pivotal support of member states, this would put pressure on both sides to halt the fighting and reach a settlement.

Read that again. I am without words. These people have no shame.

---

UPDATE: As my friend Andrew pointed out, this sounds familiar, yes?

Take up the White Man's burden—

    Send forth the best ye breed—

Go bind your sons to exile

    To serve your captives' need;

To wait in heavy harness

    On fluttered folk and wild—

Your new-caught, sullen peoples,

    Half devil and half child.

Take up the White Man's burden—

    In patience to abide,

To veil the threat of terror

    And check the show of pride;

By open speech and simple,

    An hundred times made plain.

To seek another's profit,

    And work another's gain.

Take up the White Man's burden—

    The savage wars of peace—

Fill full the mouth of Famine

    And bid the sickness cease;

And when your goal is nearest

    The end for others sought,

Watch Sloth and heathen Folly

    Bring all your hopes to nought.

Take up the White Man's burden—

    No tawdry rule of kings,

But toil of serf and sweeper—

    The tale of common things.

The ports ye shall not enter,

    The roads ye shall not tread,

Go make them with your living,

    And mark them with your dead!

Take up the White Man's burden—

    And reap his old reward:

The blame of those ye better,

    The hate of those ye guard—

The cry of hosts ye humour

    (Ah, slowly!) toward the light:—

"Why brought ye us from bondage,

    Our loved Egyptian night?"

Take up the White Man's burden—

    Ye dare not stoop to less

Nor call too loud on Freedom

    To cloak your weariness;

By all ye cry or whisper,

    By all ye leave or do,

The silent, sullen peoples

    Shall weigh your Gods and you.

Take up the White Man's burden—

    Have done with childish days—

The lightly proffered laurel,

    The easy, ungrudged praise.

Comes now, to search your manhood

    Through all the thankless years,

Cold-edged with dear-bought wisdom,

    The judgment of your peers!

- "The White Man's Burden: The United States and the Philippine Islands" (1899), by Rudyard Kipling,

Back in Africa: Portugease Edition

It is time to return again to our discussion of Africa.

Time to remind everyone that regardless of how much you may not be interested in Africa's future, Africa's future is very interested in you.

Head on over to the map, Africa is huge.

Size will not be the primary driver of the role she will have this century. It isn't her huge natural resources that is drawing China in that will be the driver either. Nope.

In the background is a topic many don't want to speak too loudly about; Africa has a very long front on the bleeding-edge of Dar al-Islam. That is part of this story, but not the two primary drivers.

This century unless it is managed carefully, Africa it will continue to produce more conflict than can be consumed locally. The causes are clear.

There are two things. First, demographics;

...and the resulting population growth that is on the way.

Second; economics.

As much as I would thoroughly enjoy it, we don't have time for a full seminar of development economics - so I'll give you a back-of-the-napkin summary.

A growing population can only grow its standard of living if its economic growth exceeds its population growth. Economic growth requires political stability and the rule of law. Nations who do not have political stability and the rule of law cannot grow their economy. Nations with high population demographics who cannot create increasing or at least a stable standard of living for their people will create conditions for a mass exodus/emigration. These migrants will move via the easiest path to an area with a high standard of living.

For the very poor in African, that path leads north, to Europe.

The European people have no more desire for migrants from Africa than they already have. In most of their nations, their ruling class lacks the ability to do what they need to do to curtail the incoming masses. The people of Europe, if their present ruling class will not address their concerns, will look to get a new ruling class.

Masses of migrants in to Europe are already warping the political landscape of Europe. If Europe wants to keep domestic political turmoil and conflict - not to mention cultural and economic issues - it must find a way to create conditions in Africa such that the pressure to migrate are at least mitigated or at best eliminated.

Sure, there is a humanitarian impulse in play here ... but in the background is the very real desire to stop mass migration from making the Europeans become a people they don't want to be once again.

That is why you find a nation of 10.6 million that spends only 1.36% GDP on defense sending 180 of their finest military members in to the very heart of Africa.

Via The Defense Post, welcome back to Africa, Portugal;

Decades after Portugal formally ended its more than 500-year-old empire in Africa, the Portuguese military has returned in force. From Mali to Somalia, and now the Central African Republic the state of Portugal has been increasingly active in peacekeeping operations and counter-terrorism efforts in Africa.

A contingent of Portuguese peacekeepers came under fire on April 1 in the capital Bangui. The force had been deployed to PK5, a historically Muslim neighborhood in the Christian majority nation when it came under fire. That incident sparked further operations against armed groups in the neighborhood. In total the operation left as many as 21 civilians dead and injured scores including peacekeepers with the U.N.’s Minusca mission.

Portuguese paratroopers were again called upon to protect civilians during clashes in Bangui on May 1 in which at least 24 people died, and around 170 people were wounded.

The Portuguese get it.

“We have to play an active role in contributing to the defense and security of Portugal, of NATO and part of that is working to ensure stability south of the Mediterranean,” said João Rebelo a member of Portugal’s parliament with the CDS – People’s Party. “I remind my colleagues often it’s only a short flight from Portugal to Libya.”

This weekend a tactical event in C.A.R. involving Portuguese forces broke above the background noise.

Portuguese peacekeepers battled for five hours to protect civilians and restore order after militants killed two police officers in the Central African Republic town of Bambari ahead of a scheduled visit by the country’s president on Thursday, January 10.

The attack came a day after President Faustin-Archange Touadera announced that the government would meet armed groups in African Union-brokered peace talks in Khartoum.

Members of the Union for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) ex-Seleka militia and their allies carried out “various attacks” in the town early Thursday, a government statement said.

“Two policemen were killed and another was wounded,” Communications Minister Ange-Maxime Kazagui told AFP.

Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) said it was treating 30 people for bullet wounds. MSF later said 26 people were still being treated but one person had died in hospital.

Corbeau News reported that around 10 people were killed, but it was not possible to confirm this toll.

The government later said on Twitter that 20 UPC members were killed and 15 others wounded.

According to an internal U.N. report seen by AFP, a combatant called “General Bello,” in charge of UPC fighters in Bambari, had been wounded.

Take some time to see this exceptional video of the Portuguese paratroopers in contact.

Things that caught my eye:
1. The influence of American special forces in the last 15-yrs has brought the light infantry kit to a refined point. Everyone is starting to look roughly the same.
2. Looks like almost every helmet has a camera, every helmet a number ... as such ... you can really deconstruct every engagement if all are working and recording. The Colonial Marines' kit from "Aliens" was pretty good in telling the future.
3. You may speak your national language to each other if you want, but when you want air support - know your English.




For everyone, especially former colonial powers like Portugal, there will be more Africa in their future.

There may be more such missions in the future.

Security in the former Portuguese colony of Mozambique is a growing international concern. Local Islamist groups in the province of Cabo Delgado have been conducting limited terrorist attacks against the government. It’s a region well-known in Portuguese military history and in Portuguese military circles. It was there in 1964 that Communist guerrillas crossed the border from Tanzania to attack Portuguese forces, an event which for Portugal marked the beginning of the Overseas War, Guerra do Ultramar, in earnest.

Fullbore Friday

It can take decades, but eventually the truth comes out. If the stars align properly, then the truth will also be well known.

The perfidy of UN military operation is well known. Sadly, there is also a history of needless sacrifice because of bureaucratic cowardice and a55 covering.

Well, this is a good news story. Too late for many who have now passed on - but better late than never.

Today, we look to the incredible story of one light infantry company from the Irish Army.

Yes, Irish Army;

FOR THE SURVIVING members of the UN’s 1961 A Company, last night’s Irish premiere of the film The Siege of Jadotville was not about Hollywood stars, massive budgets, or the backing of one of the movie industry’s most powerful production companies. 

It was about memories, and justice, and a chance for the world to see what happened when a contingent of 155 Irish troops were sent to the Congo on a peacekeeping mission that could have turned into a bloodbath.
...
The Siege of Jadotville, which gets a cinema release this weekend before moving to Netflix on 7 October, is set in 1961, when the United Nations intervened in the Katanga conflict in the African Congo. You have probably never heard of these men, or of the battle they fought – one which, facing improbable odds, they all survived – but a book by Declan Power first helped to tell their story .
It was aptly called The Siege at Jadotville: The Irish Army’s Forgotten Battle.
The men were forgotten, and as the film shows, deliberately so.
...
Quinn’s memories of his time at Jadotville are vivid. He’s told his family about when they ran out of water in the trenches, and were only allowed one spoon of the liquid each – and of the time he sucked the juice out of a tin of pineapple.
The men didn’t have enough food, ammunition or water for the siege, and yet they fought with all their might. At one stage, they were sent jerry cans of water – but they were petrol cans that hadn’t been cleaned out. Quinn – who was a mortar commander – shuddered at the memory.

Two video's that demand your time today.

First, the telling of the true story of the siege;



Second, the trailer.