Tuesday, September 28, 2010

What if you gave a war ...

... and no one could come even if they wanted to.
Britain has warned the United States that the military will not be able to fight another war like Afghanistan.

Liam Fox, the Defence Secretary, told his counterparts in the US that the Armed Forces would only be able to provide the manpower for medium-scale conflicts or for support in large conflicts where others took a greater part.
Dr Fox told said that the military could only deploy 6,000 troops to any one war zone, The Times reported. Around 10,000 are currently committed to Afghanistan. He reassured them that Britain's nuclear deterrent would remain.
There you go. When even the British can supply only a token force - it is America Alone.

Alone, indeed. Especially with the inescapable short and medium term decline in USA real and relative military power as we try to recover some sense of fiscal sanity - unless they an figure a way to tell everyone in the USA to tighten their belt BUT the military - smart people need to get to work fast to begin to decouple our nation from its many imperial obligations so we do not find our nation at Strategic Risk because our mouth was speaking more than the rest could back up. We don't have a choice as our defense budget will have to decrease.

Here - I'll help (again). All maneuver forces home from Europe, Korea, and Japan. Keep only Combined-Joint logistics and training bases. Re-baseline manpower accounts with a focus on lean manning all non-deployable forces beginning with Staffs and GOFO billets. Eliminate 80% of SES positions and 90% of associated support staff positions. Downgrade 75% of remaining Field Grade and Flag/General Officer positions one paygrade (i.e. CAPT to CDR; VADM to RADM; RDML to CAPT, etc). Scrub all personnel deployment histories and retire or deploy within 24 months all who have not deployed or served overseas in the last eight years. Eliminate 50% of GS-12+ positions and convert to Shore Duty billets (we'll need them after elimination of Staff bloat and busy-work billets ashore). There's a rough-hewn start to discuss and refine.

Brave new world Shipmate. How did we in the West get here? Simple - the USA allowed the rest of the West to get used to spending almost nothing on defense. They built unsustainable welfare states for feel-good professional politicians to buy votes with.

As they try to avoid the inevitable - they squeeze the last bit of blood out of the military budget turnip long enough so that someone better will have to deal with the consequences. In the end, they have a military good enough for border defense, parades, airshows, and to fill up Staff billets at NATO busy-work commands.

Some in the USA thought that model was so sexy - they decided to join the party just as the original folks were starting to vomit and get a hang-over.

Thing is - who will be the sober nation to supply the USA a defense umbrella while we start our economic policy bender? Right - no one.

Sober up soon USA - or someone stronger and more confident will do it for you in a way you won't like. History provides legion of examples. Ask the Imperial Russian Navy a century ago.