Like I did with McCain's VP race - I'll look at it as a chartist. I looks like the +1 spread is POTUS's medium-term Low, with a trading range to +5 or so. This will hold until another game changer comes up one way or another, as it looks like when this pic was taken (it is a few days old), that the strongly disapproved have topped with a near-term trading range of perhaps 3 points lower. If the approval side tops its trading range at the same time as the disapprovals bottom (can happen, these are not zero-sum polls) then you could see a net spike of +7 for POTUS, while a +1 is about as bad as POTUS will get. Keep that in mind, don't get too excited either way as this will be a long 2012 election season - and wait for the next game changer.
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
The Political Somme
Looks like we are occupying the same trench lines we were when this all started. Sorry if you are sick of politics - we will be soaking in it for a long time. It will be a war of attrition - don't quit.

Like I did with McCain's VP race - I'll look at it as a chartist. I looks like the +1 spread is POTUS's medium-term Low, with a trading range to +5 or so. This will hold until another game changer comes up one way or another, as it looks like when this pic was taken (it is a few days old), that the strongly disapproved have topped with a near-term trading range of perhaps 3 points lower. If the approval side tops its trading range at the same time as the disapprovals bottom (can happen, these are not zero-sum polls) then you could see a net spike of +7 for POTUS, while a +1 is about as bad as POTUS will get. Keep that in mind, don't get too excited either way as this will be a long 2012 election season - and wait for the next game changer.
Like I did with McCain's VP race - I'll look at it as a chartist. I looks like the +1 spread is POTUS's medium-term Low, with a trading range to +5 or so. This will hold until another game changer comes up one way or another, as it looks like when this pic was taken (it is a few days old), that the strongly disapproved have topped with a near-term trading range of perhaps 3 points lower. If the approval side tops its trading range at the same time as the disapprovals bottom (can happen, these are not zero-sum polls) then you could see a net spike of +7 for POTUS, while a +1 is about as bad as POTUS will get. Keep that in mind, don't get too excited either way as this will be a long 2012 election season - and wait for the next game changer.
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