Proactively “From the Sea”; an agent of change leveraging the littoral best practices for a paradigm breaking six-sigma best business case to synergize a consistent design in the global commons, rightsizing the core values supporting our mission statement via the 5-vector model through cultural diversity.
I'm not going to go in to detail on the burning in a cage execution of First Lieutenant Moaz al-Kasasbeh, RJAF - my friends over at Jawa have that covered. Instead, I'm looking where everyone else is. I'm watching to see the actions from Jordan. Their King and their government have made some very strong statements following the murder of their pilot.
Jordan has executed two Iraqi militants in response to ISIS killing a captured Jordanian pilot with fire.
Sajida al-Rishawi, the Iraqi woman militant, was sentenced to death for her role in a 2005 suicide bomb attack that killed 60 people. Ziyad Karboli, an Iraqi al Qaeda operative, who was convicted in 2008 for killing a Jordanian, was also executed at dawn, the source said.
Jordanian defense officials had promised retribution.
According to Habib, an army spokesperson promised that Jordan's response will "be at the level of disaster." Conflict News reported that an army spokesperson said that the country's "revenge will be of the size of the anger of the Jordanian people," which is apparently considerable: Habib is reporting a general mood of "anger, disgust" and "calls for revenge."
Yes, one does have to take in to consideration the fact that Jordan is a small nation of 6.5 million, not a rich petro-state, and one that is already under stress from the legion of Syrian refugees it is hosting. Don't underestimate Jordanian resolve. Keep this in mind as you read the quote below; though native Jordanians are mostly descended from Bedouin, the majority of the population are Palestinians.
When (in 1970) Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser agreed to a cease-fire in the war of attrition, and King Hussein supported the move, George Habash, the PFLP leader, promised that "we will turn the Middle East into a hell," while Arafat invoked the battle of Marathon in 490 BC and vowed, before a cheering crowd of 25,000 in Amman on July 31, 1970, that "We will liberate our land."
Three times between June 9 and Sept. 1, Hussein escapes assassination attempts, the third time as would-be assassins open fire on his motorcade while he drove to Amman airport to meet his daughter Alia, who was returning from Cairo.
The War
Between Sept. 6 and Sept. 9, Habash's militants hijacked five planes, blew up one, and diverted three others to a desert strip in Jordan called Dawson field, where they blew up the planes on Sept. 12. Rather than receiving the support of King Hussein, the Palestinian hijackers were surrounded by units of the Jordanian military. Even though Arafat worked for the release of the hostages, he also turned his PLO militants loose on the Jordanian monarchy. A bloodbath ensued.
Up to 15,000 Palestinian militants and civilians were killed, swaths of Palestinian towns and refugee camps, where the PLO had massed weapons, leveled, the PLO leadership decimated, and between 50,000 and 100,000 people were left homeless. Arab regimes criticized Hussein for what they called "overkill."
Before the war, Palestinians had run a state-within-a-state in Jordan headquartered in Amman. Their militias ruled the streets and imposed brutal and arbitrary discipline with impunity.
Hussein ended the Palestinians' reign.
As the former head of Jordanian special forces, King Abdullah II knows the business. So, we'll watch. One note of caution; it is clear that the Islamic State is trying to provoke what they see as a week and vulnerable Jordan. The King must do what the King must do, but he needs to be measured - but act he will. Thousands of his subjects are fighting as part of the Islamic State. They and their supporters will have to choose carefully as well. This branch of the Hashemite family has a history of dealing harshly with those who threaten it from within. If he is as crafty, which I believe he is, as his father, he should thread this needle and come out stronger. On a final note; this whole experience that started with the Syrian civil war and progressed now to what is going on in Jordan should shut anyone up who thinks that Israel needs to give up on inch of the Golan Heights - or any but a token bit of the West Bank.
The international order will continue to degrade as the major Western power (USA) continues to disengage thorough official disinterest and faculty room theorizing, and the medium Western powers reach the end phases of disarmament and self-doubt. The growing draw of this vacuum will encourage more and more of the unstable bits in the world will start to wobble and shake. What is now everyone's top shelf concern, the Islamic State, was just a few years ago something laughed off as a low probability and probably slightly paranoid "Black Swan." So too, in their time, were the Syrian civil war, the Arab Spring and even the slow-rolling invasion of Ukraine by Russia. These things are not new to our age, or limited to the usual places. Heck, one could even call the early 80s Falkland Island War a Black Swanish occurrence. If one agrees with the opening premise to this post, then you have to agree that we should expect to see more small and large Black Swan events - but perhaps Black Swan is the wrong term to use. None of they above examples were really out of the blue. They were always seen, at least by a small cadre of people, as a possible conflict - just one that had a low probability of boiling over. Humans are wrong and unpredictable ... and the expected results follow. I have a half a dozen or so possible conflicts I ponder on slow days. I keep them to myself. I like to look for those things that are relatively obscure, but not so far out as to be unbelievable. What I find most interesting are those areas where we have "frozen conflicts," or known areas of disagreement that are quiet now, but are just looking for the right moment to burst in to flame. Doubly interesting are those smallish conflict that through their location or connections could easily cascade in to something much greater. At least for this Tuesday I would like to drag out one of my shadowy cygnets to share with you in broad terms - with a point to a few branches and sequels for fun. Let's set the table, you've got it all here; religion, ethnicity, poverty, oil, and land. First nation is a nation of a little under 3-million to 3.2-million souls that is 95% Christian, 98% ethnically homogeneous, a fertility rate of 1.64 and a land area of 11,484 sq mi or 15,898 sq mi. The other nation one of about 9.5-million to 9.2-million souls that is 95% Muslim, 92% ethnically homogeneous, a fertility rate of 2.0 and a land area of 29,012 sq mi or 33,436 sq mi. They have already fought one war a quarter a century ago where the smaller nation in essence won without a peace treaty, killing 5-6 of the larger nation's soldiers for each of their's lost. Notice in the descriptions above there is some ambiguity about the size and population of the nations? That is from the territory the smaller nation, Armenia, took from the larger one, Azerbaijan, after they started fighting each other in the final days of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. While frozen for a generation, there are forces at work that are starting to shake things loose and make it my top "Black Swan" candidate for 2015. Over at the NYT - we have in open source a primer to a spark;
Overshadowed by the fighting in Ukraine, another armed conflict in the former Soviet Union — between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh — has escalated with deadly ferocity in recent months, killing dozens of soldiers on each side and pushing the countries perilously close to open war.
The month of January was heavily stained by blood, with repeated gun battles and volleys of artillery and rocket fire. Two Armenian soldiers were killed and several wounded in a fierce gunfight on Jan. 23 along the conflict’s northern front. That set off a weekend of violence including grenade and mortar attacks that killed at least three Azerbaijani soldiers.
The most recent clashes prompted an unusually pointed rebuke by international mediators who met on Monday in Krakow, Poland, with the Azerbaijani foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov.
“The rise in violence that began last year must stop,” the mediators, from France, Russia and the United States, said in a joint statement, adding, “We called on Azerbaijan to observe its commitments to a peaceful resolution of the conflict. We also called on Armenia to take all measures to reduce tensions.”
This is not the year for either nation to start to back off. First of all there is, as usually in this part of the world, oil. Azerbaijan has grown used to its oil boon, yet while we enjoy our gas below $2/gallon, the Azeri see their window closing to leverage the money they have earned over the last decade - money they have in a large part spent building up a military in order to have another go at the Armenians. The Armenians?
Tensions are expected to grow even further this year as Armenia prepares to commemorate in April the 100th anniversary of the genocide against Armenians in Turkey.
No Armenian politician is going to want to look like a pushover anytime soon. If this war goes hot, there are all sorts of players who may find themselves in the crunch. Here are the major ones; 1. Russia: there is nothing the Russians would more naturally fall in to than supporting their little brothers the Armenians. It fits in too well with Putin's Orthodox revival he is trying to put himself at the front of. 2. Iran: after Persians, what is the largest ethnic group in Iran? That's right, Azeri. There are about 15 million Azeri in Iran. Just to add flavor, of the 9+ million Azeri in Azerbaijan itself, 85% of them are Shia. Iran sees itself as the protector of Shia Islam, something easily seen today in Syria. 3. Georgia: thought a Christian nation, Russia has gobbled up two ethnic enclaves and the Armenians claim another small bit. One can argue where they would back a Russian play in a move to protect its larger interests in a deal. 4. Turkey: to say the least, they have a bad history with the Armenians and the Russians. The Azeri are also a Turkic people. Depending on which branch and sequel you want to play out, nations as diverse as China and Greece have a play as well.
When you look at where this could go, well, it is an interesting world in which we live.
It is hard to determine if the slow-roll Russian invasion of Ukraine is a sign of weakness, or a brilliant exercise of territorial conquest on the cheap. Either way, you have to give grudging respect to the Russians - they are winning. As with any expansionist power, they will continue to expand until stopped. Both in the public, and out in the open, there are some moves in the Diplomatic, Informational, and Economic spheres at work, but we are leaving the Military part to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians need help, they have a lot of challenges - one of of which is having the weapons they need. Though he is trying as much as he can to disengage from the world that is filling each vacuum we leave - President Obama has some hard decisions to make.
With Russian-backed separatists pressing their attacks in Ukraine, NATO’s military commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, now supports providing defensive weapons and equipment to Kiev’s beleaguered forces, and an array of administration and military officials appear to be edging toward that position, American officials said Sunday.
President Obama has made no decisions on providing such lethal assistance. But after a series of striking reversals that Ukraine’s forces have suffered in recent weeks, the Obama administration is taking a fresh look at the question of military aid.
Secretary of State John Kerry, who plans to visit Kiev on Thursday, is open to new discussions about providing lethal assistance, as is Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who is leaving his post soon, backs sending defensive weapons to the Ukrainian forces.
At a different time and with different leaders, this might give the Russians pause - but I don't think it will right now. At every turn, when things got to the point of needing a tough call, the Obama Administration has backed off. If I were the Russians, I would expect the same. This isn't a problem with the Democrat defense intellectual base - just the Democrats that Obama has decided to populate his circle with.
Fueling the broader debate over policy is an independent report to be issued Monday by eight former senior American officials, who urge the United States to send $3 billion in defensive arms and equipment to Ukraine, including anti-armor missiles, reconnaissance drones, armored Humvees and radars that can determine the location of enemy rocket and artillery fire.
Michèle A. Flournoy, a former senior Pentagon official who is a leading candidate to serve as defense secretary if Hillary Rodham Clinton is elected president, joined in preparing the report. Others include James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral who served as the top NATO military commander, and Ivo Daalder, the ambassador to NATO during Mr. Obama’s first term.
“The West needs to bolster deterrence in Ukraine by raising the risks and costs to Russia of any renewed major offensive,” the report says. “That requires providing direct military assistance — in far larger amounts than provided to date and including lethal defensive arms.”
You can get the report here. 11-months ago I made a statement on what the Ukrainians should prepare themselves for. A year later, it still applies.
The Ukrainians should prepare to lose not just Crimea, but Karkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Dnepropetrovsk. They should count themselves lucky if they keep Mykolaiv and Odessa. That is worse case. Most likely for the Ukrainians would be the loss of only Crimea and those parts east of the Dnieper up to the city of Dnepropetrovsk and east of the E105 to Karkiv. Best case is just the loss of Crimea, or some kind of agreement with Russia for expanded Russian bases and influence.
I don't see the Europeans as the EU doing anything. With the new Russian influence in Greece and Hungary, I don't see any significant moves by NATO to support either. The USA that wouldn't take the lead in Libya is unlikely to take the lead now on the border of an expanding Russia. No, there is nothing to stop the Russians from inching their way to getting their Novorossiya back. The Ukrainians are plucky - but not that plucky. No one wants a conflict in Ukraine - but the world give you what it wants, not what you want from it. It will be a great shame on the West to not even help someone to fight their own war. History shows us that in the end, someone will have to stop expansionist powers. Time is never the friend of the good in this regard. The longer you wait, the higher the butcher's bill.
For those who have seen the Great Carrier Debate between Jerry Hendrix and Bryan McGrath, one thing was clear - both gentlemen had only scratched the surface of their thoughts on the topic. At about the same time, the concept of "distributed lethality" had seeped its way in to the conversation. To examine both topics and to review the national security issues you should expect to see in 2015 will be returning guest, Bryan McGrath, today from 5-6pm Eastern. Bryan McGrath is the founding Managing Director of The FerryBridge Group LLC (FBG), a niche consultancy specializing in naval and national security issues, including national and military strategy, strategic planning, executive communications, strategic communications and emerging technologies. Prior to starting FBG, Bryan founded a national security consulting line of business for Delex Systems, where he directly supported a number of senior clients in the Navy and the Army. Additionally, he provided critical insight on Navy policy and acquisition preferences to commercial clients, including major defense contractors and small technology firms negotiating the "post-earmarks" era. A retired Naval Officer, Bryan spent 21 years on active duty including a tour in command of USS BULKELEY (DDG 84), a guided-missile destroyer homeported in Norfolk, Virginia. In his spare time, Bryan is a well-published commentator in the fields of national and maritime strategy, with policy papers published at major think tanks, and articles placed in nationally marketed periodicals. He is a frequent panelist at symposia that deal with naval issues and is frequently quoted by major press organizations. Bryan earned a BA in History from the University of Virginia in 1987, and an MA in Political Science (Congressional Studies) from The Catholic University of America. He is a graduate of the Naval War College.
Join us live if you can with the usual suspects in the chat room and offer up your questions for our guest, but if you miss the show you can always listen to the archive at blogtalkradio. If you use iTunes, you can add Midrats to your podcast list simply by clicking the iTunes button at the main showpage - or you can just click here.
It is a simple thing to say, "Never give up." Living that simple phrase can be a hard thing to do - but - this is the key thing; often times perseverance is the only thing that really matters. The victor often is the one who isn't perhaps the best, the most talented, or the strongest - the victor in the end is usually the one who simply will not quit.
On July 13, 1942, the fate Aviation Cadet Vraciu rested in the hands of five officers convened in the aftermath of his causing material damage to an aircraft when he retracted its wheels during the landing roll. The lieutenants, all flight instructors, considered Vraciu a below average student after reviewing his records and believed that there was a chance that he would not successfully complete the course of instruction. By a vote of 3-2, it was recommended that he be dropped from flight training, the signatures of the officers certifying his proposed fate.
The page doesn’t break down which instructors voted yes and which voted no, but in reviewing the names one can imagine that Lieutenants William A. Dean and Robert Dosé likely voted to keep Vraciu in the ranks of naval aviation, perhaps seeing attributes that would be of value in a combat pilot. Dean, one of two regular officers on the board, eventually headed to the Pacific and commanded the “Red Rippers” of VF-2, shooting down eleven Japanese airplanes, including two on the same day that Vraciu splashed six (June 19, 1944). Dosé later assumed command of VF-12 in Saratoga (CV 3) and logged 206 combat missions, including a strike against Rabaul where he was credited with 1.5 kills.
It would be interesting to see how he won is appeal and went on to earn his wings, but in any event, it sure worked out;
History records that Vraciu was one of World War II’s most outstanding combat pilots. His first squadron assignment was in Fighting Squadron (VF) 6 commanded by the Navy’s first ace of World War II, Medal of Honor recipient Lieutenant Commander Edward H. “Butch” O’Hare. O’Hare thought enough of Vraciu’s abilities that he made him his wingman, imparting invaluable tactical knowledge on air-to-air combat.
The young aviator scored his first kill over Wake Atoll on October 1943, while flying an F6F Hellcat from the deck of the carrier Independence (CVL 22), the first of nineteen confirmed kills that he would compile in the skies over the Pacific. His most famous action came at the Battle of the Philippine Sea, the famed “Marianas Turkey Shoot,” where he shot down six enemy aircraft to become an ace in a day. Returning to Lexington (CV 16)—he had joined VF-16—he posed for a famous photograph in his flight gear, his face lit up in a smile as he held up six fingers to denote his kills. Adding to his combat record in the air was his experience in the Philippines after being shot down on a combat mission with VF-20 flying off Lexington later in 1944. Vraciu spent weeks with a band of Filipino guerillas before making his way to American forces. Remaining in the Navy, he retired as a commander in 1964.
Never quit. There is a transference to this principle as well, one that applies with particular impact in the profession or arms. By not giving up, even if you eventually do not triumph directly, you open the door to eventual triumph. By not giving up, you purchase something without price; time. You buy time for others; others who, if imbued with your same ethos, will not give up. Will not quit. If in the end they too are overcome, they have purchased time for the next in line.
That is the example of Commander Vraciu. Another data point to a cornerstone of our profession; never give up. Never accept the barriers put in front of you. Never take the counsel of defeat.
Commander Alex Vraciu, who passed away on January 29, 2015, at the age of 96, was one of naval aviation’s most acclaimed fighter aces. The son of Romanian immigrants, he grew up in East Chicago, Indiana, and graduated from Depauw University, where he played football and tennis and also ran track. Like many college-age men of his generation, who finished their schooling with a world at war, he signed on the dotted line and entered the Navy’s aviation cadet program, reporting to Naval Air Station (NAS) Glenview, Illinois, for elimination training. He finished the course there just two days after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and headed south, bound for NAS Corpus Christi, Texas, to complete his flight training.
... and that is where our story picked up. Shipmate just left his mortal coil, but he has left a great legacy, and in a fashion, should be considered the patron saint of anyone who has found themselves in front of a performance review board, failed a qualification board, or had a moment of imperfection that - at the moment - seems destined to prematurely put one on the off ramp to obscurity. 96; well done ace, well done.
It has been like this in Ukraine for more than ten months. And it bores you. The words, “war in Ukraine,” mean nothing to you anymore. It’s a back page story that doesn’t scare you. It’s normal, expected and just a drowned-out voice in the chorus of world news. Those like me, who claim the war in Ukraine could turn into a world one, no longer frighten you. Nobody believes it could actually happen.
But there is going to be a war in Europe. In fact, Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are already dying in it. So what are we, the democratic nations of the world, going to do about it?
I am roughly in alignment with him, but I am not so much bored with Ukraine, as I have developed a detachment - almost like the puppy that puts its head under the couch, hoping that means you can see it. I am detached as there is nothing I can do to move the needle, and even if I could - it won't make a difference. Europe is tired, lazy, and distracted. What national security concerns it has are focused on the Islamist monster of its own creation, or Kabuki theater like putting AAW assets round a ground battle whose only air threat is a bunch of cargo helicopters dumping 55-gallon drums out of side doors on someone else. As for the USA, there simply is no leadership here to rally the West. It isn't here because they don't want to lead anyone. Without American resolve, the European powers to whom it has become a crutch will not fill the void - and the few European nations who would in spirit, are too small in body. Yes, in some ways it does smell of the mid 30s.
In 1935, as war clouds gathered in Europe, the great American author and war correspondent Ernest Hemingway wrote, “War is no longer made by simply analyzed economic forces if it ever was. War is made or planned now by individual men, demagogues and dictators who play on the patriotism of their people to mislead them into a belief in the great fallacy of war when all their vaunted reforms have failed to satisfy the people they misrule.”
Does Hemingway’s 1935 assessment of Hitler and Mussolini apply to Putin as well?
Russia’s economy is stagnant and on the verge of recession. Putin’s fifteen years of trying to integrate Russia into the international community was reversed almost overnight with his takeover of Crimea and subversive war in eastern Ukraine.
So maybe Putin’s war in Ukraine is a shroud lowered over the eyes of the Russian people to blind them to his failures as president.
Or maybe there is another, much more terrifying possibility. Putin may see himself as a historical figure destined to rebuild the Russian empire, no matter what the cost.
The U.S. and Europe must have the courage to confront what must be done if Putin reveals himself as such. His references to Novorossiya and his famous lamentation that the collapse of the USSR was the “greatest geopolitical disaster” of the twentieth century should send chills down your spine.
Because if Putin’s wars are motivated by his personal ambition to secure a place in history, then no think-tank analysis, presidential finger wagging or wonky economic scheming can bring him to his knees.
In that terrible scenario, the only way to stop him is war.
The Spanish Civil War was the first great conflict between fascism, communism and Western democracies in the lead-up to World War II. It was perhaps a missed opportunity for the democratic nations of the world to put a stop to the imperial lust of Hitler and Mussolini.
Hemingway was in Spain to report on that war. He witnessed Italian and German fascist troops fighting there, and he sensed the larger conflict that was to come if the West did not stop the fascists then.
From Hemingway, speaking about the Spanish Civil War in 1938:
“But because it has gone on so long the people who do not have to go hungry, fight and die in it, get quite tired of the whole thing. They do not even want to hear about it. Perhaps these pictures will make it seem a little more real. Because these pictures are what you will look like if we let the next war come.”
For all its unknowns, the future rather predictably echoes the history that precedes it.
I am sorry Europe, and I am sorry world. You will just have to get along best as you can without us. We twice voted for this - and the international community on a whole wanted us to - so bask in it. Nothing we can do about it - and odds are, in a couple more years, we will have lost almost all desire to. Winning and leadership are habits born of culture and habit - and they are intertwined. After a few cycles of ingratitude and tepid support from Europeans - do not be shocked when they call for it, the answer comes between meh & feh. It didn't have to be this way - but it is. Sadly, unless a positive black swan come roosting in our pond, it only gets worse ... just like in the 30s.
An interesting back and forth with James Fallows that started with his article in The Atlantic that Bryan McGrath and I replied to at the end of 2014. In a follow-on bit, Fallows has brought on two JO voices to mostly reinforce the echoes in his world view sound chamber ... but then this happened. LT Matt Hipple over at USNIBlog has put the seasoned journalist on report.
I have said this before, if we want to build a better civil-military understanding, I beg you start paying attention to the debate happening in the public writings of those servicemembers you want to understand. Though there is a place for appreciating the pure critics and exit-route mic-droppers; their views should not be the main drumbeat of our dialogue. To be fair, many of us who write regularly are a self-selected group – there still remains a vast space in which to encourage JOs to write. Those in the public space who avail themselves for those writings are doing a service, but the cherry picking and lack of guidance in the production of shocking JO posts does no service to your legitimacy among those you wish to discuss, and misinforms – or only partially informs – the public you are attempting to explain us to.
You want controversy, you want to see the battle of ideas, you want characters, you want stories… they’re all out there. The shooting stars may grab attention, but the constellations in the night sky are how we should navigate.
Hipple even offers links, including a USNI blog post by LT Roger Misso & LTJG Chris O'Keefe worth your time. The thing that Fallows misses is that there is a rich and vibrant conversation out there - but it isn't going to come to him. He has to make the effort to expand his intellectual horizons and read outside his comfort range. Fallows isn't alone in this problem, and it is this blinkered view that many in the traditional parts of the media ecosystems suffer from that prevents them from seeing a more detailed view of issues they are trying to address. It is all there.
