The Blob Wants a War

Well, there it is. Over at Politico we have an open letter calling for a limited no-fly zone. 

This letter is signed by people who should know better. I would put the substance somewhere in the wtf grid bounded by "irresponsible" & "insulting."

Too many people have misremembered both recent and longer-term history. We are talking about Russia here. Not Serbia. Not Libya. Not Iraq.

Let us be clear on this point; a No Fly Zone (NFZ) requires you shoot down aircraft over a specified area. Over Ukraine, what this letter calls for is for us to shoot down Russian aircraft. It says “NATO” but as anyone who served in Afghanistan knows, this will mean the USA, and possibly the United Kingdom with an assist from Denmark and Poland, maybe.

That is asking for war. You don’t want a wider European war. No sane person does. 

These people do, but they are not being honest about it. 

If you want a war, ask for it. Assuming that everyone will either be silent or stupid, instead the authors decided to be too clever by half to the rubes while winking at their peers who know exactly what they are doing. Not unlike the build up to the Iraq invasion of 2003, I’m not sure that they believe their own distortions, or simply that they are not as good as they tell everyone they are. I’m beginning to think both.

Someone in this group must know where a NFZ would lead. Once everything blows up – which it may NFZ or not – a note from this crowd of, "Oh, no, we never expected this escalation..." won't wash at the moment & damn sure won't wash on the 1st through last draft of history.

I’m sorry, I don’t trust them. After you read the letter, if you still do, I can’t help you.

This is such a grabasstic horror show, we’re going to fisk it.

Let’s go:

Where exactly do they think any missiles enforcing a NFZ will go, to intercept the Tanzanian Air Force? The Russians are not fools, but this paragraph is written for fools. Ukraine is only slightly smaller than Texas. Jet fighters and their missiles move faster than the speed of sound. There is no way to limit a FLZ to “corridors.” This effectively will cover the entire landmass. 

Yes, that is what happens in wars of aggression. If NATO implements the NFZ all the decision makers need to accept that all the horrors in that last sentence will expand exponentially. Be clear about that. None of the people who signed this letter will have to put their lives on the line for it … but a lot of other will.

This is simply untrue. We are, by assisting UKR, prolonging the fight (which I support, Slava Ukraini, etc) and thus more casualties and bloodbaths will result … as it the nature of war … as is the constant in the human condition.

A NFZ implemented by a 3rd party after hostilities have already begun between Ukraine and Russia is an intentional act to join in a war with Russia. There is no other way this can be understood. It is plain on its face.

Additionally, this is the first time I have heard of the A-10 option mentioned by “serious” people. Being that UKR has no one qualified to fly A-10, much less maintain squadrons of them, this is one of two things; either an invitation for an American Volunteer Group (AVG) of the Ukraine Air Force, or simply people not knowing their business. There are retired USAF General Officers on this list. They know this.

Yes, this is the war you and your institutes and think tanks failed to prevent, prepare for, or predict.  Why should we think you have a solution now? Seriously, what is your track record?

That will operationalize in to the USA and NATO becoming active participants in their war. As we would were the tables turned, that would invite – really almost require – Russia to expand this in to a pan-European war. No, scratch that, as that would bring in the North American two-ocean nations of Canada and the United States … a world war.

No. Non-concur.

I don’t know what the signatories think they are doing, but I know what they are doing.

We see you. We know what you are doing. 

Final note – irrespective of the substance - what the hell is wrong with all these open letters by these Very Important Experts™ that we keep seeing what are all jacked up WRT formatting?

You would think with all these duty drivers and good parking spaces, one of them would be on good terms with a former Flag Secretary – or one of their kids or grandkids.

Please Buddha, save us from our elites. 

In Ukraine, We Enter a More Brutal Stage

For the Russians, the chance for a quick victory faded early on in the war when they failed to keep Antonov Airport airport in Kyiv after their air assault on 24 FEB 22 and the Ukrainians responded with unexpected resolve. Ukraine was not the nation and army the Russians faced in 2014.

However, even with the logistics nightmare, convoy issues, and the now well-meme'd farmers-stealing-abandoned-armor appearance of a rough time so far, the Russian continue to take ground. Slowly and steadily they advance.

They've bypassed most of the major urban centers in the classic "bypass and haul ass" operational scheme of maneuver, but now they need to clean up their lines and their rear. That means we are entering a new phase - taking the urban centers.

What can we expect in this phase? Well, the Russians have a track record here.

Via Jeremy Bowen at BBC;

Russia answers resistance with firepower. Rather than send in men to fight from house to house and room to room, their military doctrine calls for a bombardment by heavy weapons and from the air to destroy their enemies.

Kharkiv and the other cities and towns have suffered grievous damage, and as far as we know many civilian casualties. The seat of Kharkiv's local government was badly damaged in a missile strike that was filmed. Russian President Vladimir Putin might be sending a message to Kyiv - look to the east, because this could happen to you.

The depressing conclusion I've drawn from other wars in which I have seen Russians in action is that it could get much worse.

...

Before the invasion of Ukraine, military analysts assessed that Russia's forces were now much more professional. Perhaps they are, but Russia's invasion has once again been slowed by logistical bottlenecks, tactical mistakes and terrified teenagers who had not been told they were going to war - as well as resistance as fierce as anything the Chechens offered in 1995.

...

In Chechnya, Russia's answer was to use its firepower. In a few weeks, artillery and air strikes reduced the centre of Grozny, a typical concrete and steel Soviet city, to rubble. I was in Minutka Square, a centre of Chechen resistance, on a day when it was hit by repeated air strikes. Civilians were mostly in cellars, risking death every time they went out to find water or food.

...

The most devastated places I have seen in years of war reporting, apart from Grozny, were in Syria. The connection is the destructive power of the Russian military.

Mr Putin's decision to intervene in Syria saved the regime of Bashar al-Assad and took a big step towards his objective of restoring Russia as a world power. Two decisive victories over rebels in Syria, vitally important for the regime, were delivered by the ruthless use of Russian firepower.

The first was in Aleppo at the end of 2016. The eastern side of the city, which had been held by a variety of rebel factions throughout the war, fell after it was pulverised by shelling and air strikes. The Assad regime did not need any encouragement to shell Syrians, but the Russians brought a much greater level of destructive power. Strategic bombers based at home and in Iran delivered devastating strikes.

The tactic used in Syria was to encircle and besiege rebel-held areas, pound them from the air and from artillery batteries, and in the end exhaust the defenders and any civilians who had not managed to escape. Many of them were killed.

Is this the direction the Russians will head in Ukraine? They are as comfortable taking casualties as they are giving them. In some ways, they've already started with Grad rocket barrages from Kyiv to Karkiv. It is what they have a recent history of doing.

I see no reason why the war in Ukraine will be any different. We are in for an incredibly ugly few weeks, perhaps months...but hopefully not years.

China's 2022 with Dean Cheng - on Midrats

While the world's eyes are focused on Russia and Ukraine - and probably will for the foreseeable future  - the People's Republic of China is not standing still. 

How can China use this moment to her advantage? What possible lessons can China take away from the Ukraine conflict so far, and perhaps more importantly, how should it impact how we and our allies look at China?

Returning to Midrats to discuss these and related questions this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern will be our guest Dean Cheng.

Dean is the Senior Research Fellow for Chinese political and security affairs at the Asia Studies Center of The Heritage Foundation. He specializes in Chinese military and foreign policy, and has written extensively on Chinese military doctrine, technological implications of its space program, and “dual use” issues associated with China’s industrial and scientific infrastructure. He is the author of “Cyber Dragon: Inside China's Information Warfare and Cyber Operations.”

Before joining The Heritage Foundation, he was a senior analyst with the Center for Naval Analyses, a federally funded research and development center, and a senior analyst with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC, now Leidos), the Fortune 500 specialist in defense and homeland security. He has testified before Congress, spoken at the (American) National Defense University, US Air Force Academy, and the National Space Symposium, and been published in the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. 

Join us live if you can, but it not, you can get the show later by subscribing to the podcast. If you use iTunes, you can add Midrats to your podcast list simply by clicking the iTunes button at the main showpage - or you can just click here. You can find us on almost all your most popular podcast aggregators as well.

Fullbore Friday

Civilization, we are being reminded in Ukraine, is paper thin.

Because so much of war in Europe that we have seen is in black and white of very grainy color, in the last few decades – even with the collapse of Yugoslavia as a reminder – we have forgotten how fast all can fall apart.

Heck, few under 30 even have memories of the Yugoslavian collapse, so two generations have no memory that, in a week – you are living in a history you did not ask for.

You are the young girl, dog under one arm and cat under another, escaping from an advancing army on foot through ruins just a bit ago were just part of your neighborhood.

In Ukraine, we see objectively poorer, but normal modern Westerners returning to not just their great-grandparent’s reality – but the human condition from time immortal – war.

They are not – as Americans are used to doing – fighting and dying in some place most can’t find on a map, but in their homes. Their neighborhoods. Their towns. 

Via Yaroslav Trofimov pics by Manu Brabo for the WSJ - a must read; 

Ukrainian and foreign civilians have been streaming out of Irpin and cities beyond that are under Russian control, walking toward the relative safety of Kyiv despite shelling and airstrikes.

With a bridge over the Irpin River blown up, they have to climb down and under the span and then navigate a precarious pathway, their suitcases and pets in their hands. There was no formal agreement with Russia on the humanitarian corridor here, Ukrainian soldiers said, and the risk of a Russian shell hitting the area, something that happened before, was constant.

“I’ve spent seven days hiding in a shelter, but today the power went off and enough is enough,” said Mykhailo, a screenwriter who hiked with two backpacks for more than an hour from the other side of Irpin, near the next town of Bucha. He declined to provide his surname.

“The Russians are hitting everywhere, and it’s blowing up just outside my home now,” he said. It is the second time Mykhailo said he has had to move. He fled his hometown of Luhansk after pro-Russian forces took it over in 2014.

Tanya Rybko and her two children spent the entire morning walking from the town of Hostomel north of here. Russian forces control several parts of town, while Ukrainians are deployed in others. “And tonight, we were right in the middle of it all, between the two sides,” she said.

Russian troops, she added, had taken over a nearby apartment building, holding civilians hostage and seizing their phones so residents don’t phone in tips to Ukrainian troops. Hungry, the Russian forces were also looting local stores and homes, looking for food, she said.

Mohammad Amin, a Tunisian information-technology specialist, has been living in Ukraine for the past 10 years. On Friday, Mr. Amin, his Ukrainian wife and their 4-year-old son, with a small suitcase in tow, left the apartment they had purchased in Irpin and walked for nearly an hour to the bridge, hoping to get to Kyiv and then on to the European Union.

“I just cannot sit in the shelter anymore,” Mr. Amin said, out of breath. “The Russians, they are just jealous. They feel themselves defeated, and so they are just hitting apartments with civilians in them. They know very well where civilians live.”

He pointed to Ukrainian soldiers guarding the bridge, with bright-yellow tape on their helmets. “And these people,” he said, “they are heroes. Believe me, I am telling the truth.”

The Ukrainians just want to be like their neighbors to the West … and at least they have a chance to fight like it.

Every day for the past week, Russian forces have tried to fight their way through this suburb of Kyiv to reach the Ukrainian capital. And every day, Ukrainian troops have forced them to retreat, leaving burning tanks and armored personnel carriers behind.

“We go out to hunt and destroy them,” said Volodymyr, a Ukrainian special-forces team leader, as his squad, armed with a British .308 sniper rifle and British-made antitank weapons, waited for the latest Russian attack. “They certainly didn’t come here expecting that, expecting that we know how to fight.”

“Ukraine is fighting in a way nobody expected, not the Russians and not our Western partners,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser and member of Kyiv’s delegation at cease-fire talks with Russia. “Kyiv was supposed to have fallen in three days.”

...Kyiv is also holding because the Russian forces here seem to have stuck to Soviet-style large maneuver tactics, moving in long convoys that are vulnerable to strikes by small reconnaissance units and by Ukraine’s fleet of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 armed drones, Ukrainian officers said.

...

“We’re in shock at how dumb their behavior is,” said another member of the Ukrainian special-forces unit who has been going on missions in the area every night. His unit, he said, had lost two soldiers since the war began nine days ago, and killed more than 60 Russians in recent days. “Now, we mostly focus on hitting their rear, their supply convoys, because if they don’t get fuel, they can’t do anything.”

Morale among Ukrainian defenders was high in Irpin on Friday, even as a Russian attack airplane flew low over a housing block and sounds of artillery rounds landing got closer and closer. Big plumes of black smoke rose to the north and south of town, along other major routes where Russian forces have been trying for more than a week to break into Kyiv.

Cloud cover has hampered Russia’s use of combat helicopters, soldiers here said. But to be prepared in case enemy choppers or attack planes approached, one of the soldiers took a position with a portable antiaircraft missile on his shoulder. Troops here say they operate their own small drones, including some with thermal cameras, to hunt for Russian targets.

Read it all.

So, this FbF, give a nod to the citizens of Irpin and their family members, neighbors, and countrymen fighting for each block. Each intersection. Each river.

Liberty once lost may never been found again. 

Will the Ukrainian pluck be enough? We shall see, but the Ukrainians are not going to go quietly or meekly.

They will go, or they will win, as a people – fullbore.

Diversity Thursday

As I did once in a DivThu in 2017 when we looked again at the USCG's sad decline in to official sectarianism, there was once a time when the USCG Academy was a rare light where everyone was on an equal footing. There was no discrimination based on race, creed, color, or national origin.

As we covered in 2010, not any more.

Buried in the annual Coast Guard authorization act passed this week by Congress is wording that would strike from the U.S. Code the statement that all appointments to the Coast Guard Academy "shall be made without regard to the sex, race, color or religious beliefs of an applicant."

Under current federal law the academy is "race neutral," but the change would put it on the same footing as other colleges and universities in balancing its enrollment by admitting students from specific groups.

A dozen years later, the USCG's diversity division is not through  growing its empire well beyond the USCGA, expanding its grift. No, as  was  done  in  2010, they are using their influence in Congress to find more positions for  otherwise  unemployable people who have but one job; don't solve problems,  justify our grift.

Let's have a little detailed fun with this latest horror show of socio-political fraud;

R 221423Z FEB 22

FM COMDT COGARD WASHINGTON DC

TO ALCOAST

BT

UNCLAS

ALCOAST 063/22

SSIC 5350

SUBJ: DESIGNATION OF SENIOR ADVISOR FOR DIVERSITY AND  INCLUSION (SADI)

Is that pronounced "sad-E" or "sad-I?" I'm not sure it matters, but still, might want to know before you have to introduce the zampolit to your command.

A. Section 913 of the FY21 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)

B. COMDT COGARD WASHINGTON DC 161727Z JUN 21/ALCOAST 222/21

Oh no  ...  we already have a style error. One never puts a reference in a message unless you are going to refer to it. REF (A) is the whole reason for this abomination, but is REF (B) mentioned anywhere? No. This makes the old N1 in me itch, but such are our best people nowadays.

1. I am pleased to announce the U.S. Coast Guard is designating Dr. D. M. Navarro (CG-1D) as interim Senior Advisor for Diversity and Inclusion (SADI).

2. REF (A) requires the Commandant of the Coast Guard to  appoint an individual to fill this position. The SADI reports directly to the Commandant.

I owe a beer to whoever wrote PARA 2. That is an insurgent mindset that lets everyone know the underground is there and waiting for the right moment. Everyone sees the, "We know this is stupid and  wasteful, but we follow laws and it is the law so we will follow it. Here, we have an underemployed Ph.D. in Clinical Psychology with a Master’s Degree in Education and Counseling who can fill this make work position until we can't slow-roll this further."  

Nice. Well done. We all see it, and appreciate the effort.

3. To remain the world's best Coast Guard, we must be the world's most diverse and inclusive Coast Guard. A diverse and inclusive  culture is strongly linked to the Coast Guard's Core Values of  Honor, Respect, and Devotion to Duty. This SADI designation strongly aligns with and supports the Coast Guard Strategic Plan and the 2019-2023 Diversity and Inclusion Action Plan. The assignment of a SADI is also in alignment with recommendations received from the RAND Corporation's Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) in their Holistic Study and Analysis on the Recruiting and Retention of Underrepresented Minorities in the Coast Guard.

As eyes are rolling nationwide, someone really wants you to know why, in 2022, all of a sudden this is so important.  You see, the diversity industry created words that justify their expanded job possibilities to create more reasons to make more job positions. No problem solving you see, goodness no.

4. As SADI and in accordance with REF (A), Dr. Navarro is responsible for providing advice, guidance, and coordination for all matters related to diversity and inclusion, including:

a. establishing training in diversity dynamics and training  in practices for leading diverse groups effectively;

There will be mandatory training and videos you have to watch, I'm afraid.

b. advising on, and assisting in, evaluations and assessments of diversity;

We must have metrics to justify our political position by holding the USCG for things they  have  no control over. Giving people impossible tasks with no pushback is great for job security.

c. developing a strategic diversity and inclusion plan; and,

d. developing strategic goals and measures of performance related to efforts to attract and retain the diverse population of the United States eligible to serve in the Armed Forces.

Goodness knows, this has never been done before by anyone.

5. This designation will remain in effect until a permanent SADI is established.

6. Please join me in congratulating Dr. Navarro on her new role, and in supporting her in these duties which are so critical to becoming a more inclusive Coast Guard. 

7. POC is CAPT Laura Collins ([redacted]@uscg.mil), Deputy Director of Civilian Human Resources, Diversity and Leadership (CG-12D).

8. ADM Linda L. Fagan, Vice Commandant (VCG), sends.

9. Internet release is authorized.

If you want to know why the legions of diversity commissars grow while ships go to sea short handed, shore maintenance position unfilled etc - there you go. Congress is forcing it in order to have people in positions making the self-justifying arguments and selling their specific socio-political diktats.

Zamploits. Little more than zamploits.

Shame,  we could use CG-1D's skills somewhere productive besides as a part time zamploit, but because of Congress, we nor she have much of a choice.

NATO's Potential Russian Flashpoint May be at Sea

Are you aware that NATO nations have already been attacked by Russia?

Well, their merchant ships in the Black Sea have.

If you know your European history, you know the seriousness of this ... yet, it is out of most people's scan.

Links and thoughts over at  USNIBlog.

Come by and give it a read.

The Map Tells the Story

Just a quick note today as the paying gig is only letting me pop in and out of my alter ego's life.

A friend posted the below from Janes' this AM from behind their paywall.

I've had some well informed readers reach out to me after I posted it over on twitter to ask, roughly, "But I keep seeing how the Russians are screwing up the basics of fuel, food, bad comms and chaos."

Well, yes - that is all true. I am also sure that this is not going as smooth as the Russian General Staff briefed Putin how things would go.

The fact remains though that the Russians are making gains. Slower and uglier than they thought, but they are making gains. 

The Ukrainians are putting up a plucky fight with what they have, but it is not enough at this point to slow the flow of Russians in to the center of their country. Like a Hawaiian volcano slowly swallowing a house, it is all there to see in the open.

As Russians do, they make up for lack in attention to detail with simple mass. There are no off ramps for Putin. As long as he is in power, he will do what he needs to do to achieve his end state.

Ukraine and the West did not do what they needed pre-conflict to make this an unattractive effort. 

Sure, now that the tanks are rolling, the right things are being done, but it is just too late. There were warnings, but no one would listen.

In plain sight the Russians showed what they were planning to do - but the decision makers in Kyiv, DC, Brussels, and various European capitals refused to believe what could happen.

The West is about a year late in giving the Ukrainians the edge they needed to make the invasion calculus such that the Russians wouldn't give it a go, and if they did, blunt that mass the Russians could throw in to the war. The West's politicians, self-preening in their anti-military, green-Gaia worshiping world views, did not signal strength. The grasping and greedy mercantilists were not done extracting more wealth for themselves and their WEF-Davos-Great-Reset fantasies. The press - wanting to join the political fray and leach off the wealth, did little.

The Ukrainians are not blameless. After 2014, efforts were made, but they were an economy of force measure by the Ukrainians and the well meaning nations tried to help ... but it was not enough.

The usual suspects in the Western nomenklatura's Smartest People in the Room™ set refused to convince the Ukrainians to get a larger military faster and are to blame more than anyone else. Their world view and concepts of power are poorly rooted in history or practice. Again, it is all clear to see now for those who did not believe before.

Instead of elevating the Ukrainian President to build civil society, they invited Greta Thunberg to yell at them.

They never appreciated what the Russians COULD do, so they refused to see what they were building up forces TO do.

As a result we are here, either on the brink of a war everyone may lose control of, or we will watch a slow, sloppy, and ugly land grab by the Russians that in the end will only encourage more aggression and land grabs - both in Europe and elsewhere. There is an outside chance that a tide might turn towards a happier place, but that is not the smart bet right now. We'll see in a week.

As for now via the BBC, there is the Russian Army, in the Kyiv suburbs.

Oh, and the economic impact of all this elite failure? Just watch, it's on the way.