Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Climate Change Silliness at NWC

Two issues.

First; there are some very important and exciting things happening in the arctic, mostly concerning a returning Russia after a long period of American benign neglect. It requires fresh, focused, and a serious attention to the investment of intellectual capital in exploring and understanding of our interests in the area.

Second; as with most things in the military, it is important that as an institution it steers away as much as possible from looking to endorse or participate in political movements - especially sketchy ones. Sadly, it appears in at least style if not substance, we may have a failure in both areas at the Naval War College.

Let's start with a loaded political movement; "climate change." Without wandering too far in to the pedigree, "climate change" is simply the "we cannot defend 'global warning' anymore" replacement phrase for a long standing leftist fright wig. 

Besides the politics, there is a logic problem at play. The use of the phrase is silly in the extreme for this one reason; the climate has, is, and always will change. Of course there is climate change. There is also light followed by darkness once a day.

Why use it? Simple; to scare people in to granting you power - to enable the transfer of control to others in excess than would be normally done in a reasoned way.

So, you can usually get a tell from people or organization's political leanings by who use "climate change" at the front.

So, we have ...
Responding to the opening of the Arctic region to increased human activity, the U.S. Naval War College (NWC) is exploring the geopolitical future of the area.

A course at NWC, Arctic Security in an Age of Climate Change, is part of the Arctic area of study elective track and explores the future and how the Navy and other global stakeholders will likely participate as climate change continues to alter the region.
The title of the course itself is an insult to the intelligence of everyone who sits in a seat. Seriously. Every age has been an age of climate change. Talk to those who study areas as diverse as Stradivarius violins and the lost cities of the Taklamakan desert.

I guess next year we can have a course, "Tactical Cyber Defense in the age of Gamergate's Misogynistic Gender Tropes." Hey, if I tilt my nogg'n a bit, I could almost write that course outline. 

Anyway, of all the important things that we need to focus on in the arctic, we really want to hang this banner on it?
According to the roadmap, in 2025 there will be two weeks each year of open water. Open water is defined at less than 10 percent sea ice.

In 2030, there is predicted to be fully six weeks of open water each year. There will also be an additional 10 weeks each year of shoulder season, where 10 to 40 percent sea ice is predicted.
So, we're going to plan on that crowd's track record?
1.) Scientists predicted in 2000 that kids would grow up without snow. It was 14 years ago now when UK climate scientists argued that global warming would make snowfall a “a very rare and exciting event”.
2.) It’s been 10 years since scientists predicted the “end of skiing” in Scotland. ... Viner and Watson must have been surprised to see the BBC report that Scottish mountains may be their snowiest since 1945.

3.) The Arctic would be “ice-free” by now. “Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore said in 2008.
4.) Environmentalists predicted the end of spring snowfall. In March 2013, the Union of Concerned Scientists predicted that warmer springs would mean declines in snow cover ... But the record levels of snowfall to hit this year may have caught UCS off guard. On Monday, the U.S. east coast was hit with a massive snowstorm that stretched for 1,300 miles and those in the Baltimore-D.C. area were hit with a 141-year record cold of 4 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday morning.

“Many places tied or broke record lows all over the Eastern half of the U.S.,” reported CBS Baltimore.

5.) The end of skiing. Ski towns across the country were worried about their prospects when temperatures temporarily rose up into 50s and 60s in early February. Scientists were fanning the flames by predicting that winter towns could see more hardships ahead due to global warming.
The town of Loveland, Colorado got more than 300 inches of snow this winter, reports CBS Denver, adding that with “snow continuing to pile up at ski areas many are putting this winter in their top 10.”
Sigh. Regression toward the mean is evidently still not a widely known concept.

Hopefully, what we have at Newport is someone was trying to be too clever by half and is trying to curry favor with SECNAV and his band of little green men - at worse, we actually have smart people who have bought in to the politics of the scam that is global warming/climate change fear mongering.

In a word - pathetic. As a result, we won't be taking a serious diplomatic, economic and military view of what is happening in the high north.

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