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We have been in tough economic times before. What we have not had before was a full blown economic socialist in the White House - one who has so few cabinet members that have any background outside guv'munt and/or academia. The results speak for themselves. Via IBD,
There was/is another nation that tried to borrow and spend its way out of an economic problem that started in real estate. Do we want to learn, or wander into the same swamp?
UPDATE: From those far-right groups at the WaPo and CBO - you have this jewel.
79 comments:
The best way to surrender liberty is to create the illusion that the public is dependent upon the government. The administration is doing just this, and the media is going along for the ride. This is how revolutions start. These are very dangerous times and we all need to vote these turkeys out of office before folks become desperate.
Shame on me! This will be the fourth or fifth time I have resolved to never return to this blog site. It is advertised as a blog about our beloved Navy and a place where we can come together as naval professionals to discuss issues surrounding readiness, manpower, naval warfare, and leadership. But once again, it has turned into a political shout fest. I know the host will delete this comment but for CDR S., I am gone for good - at least I hope!
Nah, you'll be back; you just can't resist the temptation to do a bit of shouting yourself.
well ... bye.....
<span>JMAC,
We will miss your inspiration, your depth of knowledge, your years of service to the Global Force for Good / Hope and Change, and your quiet unassuming demeanor.
you have always provided an incredible example...
FOR ME TO POOP ON!</span>
As a retired Naval Professional (yes, they even paid me!), good ridance. The US Navy has collectively oppened the door to all sorts of non-Navy related discussions, such as this I just picked up from NavyNews (twitter): http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=54681.
It's that lovely. As the combat readiness of the Fleet is at a very low point, as noted by several serious minded retired Naval Officers, the CNO can find time to go to a conference for an Association of Naval Officers to discuss diversity.
And, BTW, "shout fest?" You're a way too sensitive girly man. Can't make your point by logic and sound ideas, so you throw up your hands and leave, but not before telling us how butt hurt you are.
I'm hoping you'll not be sitting CO, XO, TAO, CHENG, DCA, RL Leader, or just about any other duty aboard ships and stations. Your charges will be at risk due to your adversity to adverse conditions should a man made disaster come your way.
Recording history accurately is a noble cause. Having the Fleet rot, while we make sure the errors of thousands of years of past inequality...not a intellectually honest endeavour.
And I would like my friends to be honest with me about which side of an issue I'm on.... :)
yep
sssssssssh, Byron......don't encourage him.
So recession starts officially in Dec 2007, even though the housing peak was in 2006, we'll go with Dec 2007.
The employment picture degrades at an increasing rate until about month 13-15 (call it Q1 2009) where it takes on a steady slope down. At month 16-17 on this graph we see the rate of job loss decreasing until month about 24 at which point it roughly flatlines. Now the rate of job loss increases until roughly Jan-Mar 2009, and this is Obama's fault? Fascinating assessment.
I guess the fact that when Obama took office in Jan 2009, roughly month 13 on this chart the recession was worse than the low point of 5 or 6 of the last 9 recessions with no signs of recovery is lost on Obama critics. I guess he should have taken a situation where we were losing 1% every 12 months or so, and stopped the losses in six months instead of 12. Would that have met expectations?
"These are very dangerous times and we all need to vote these turkeys out of office before folks become desperate."
<span>
Then what? What if BHO is re-elected? Then what? You may call them desperate and excuse their actions. You might even join Glenn Beck and their ilk and cheer them on. I will treat them as the treasonous SOBs that they really are.
</span>
Looking through my little copy of the Constitution.... hmmm... Congress.... President.... Commander in Chief... budgets.... pay for military... make laws.... Yep. It's all there. Seems politics directly affects US Navy, its staffing, its budget and the appointing and commissioning of its officers. So it belongs here too.
Check out your Constitution, Jimmy. It's a wonderful document! And if my yelling at you ever made you cry, I deeply apologize.
Alpha Check: You neglect to look at his policies and the stated intent. Trillions in TARP and Porkulus. YES. The selling point for both was that it would recover us in quick fashion. In fact, it has produced nothing. So we wasted trillions. Essentially, we would be in the same place right now if we had not spent those trillions. Would we be as critical if we had been fiscally conservative in handling this recession? No.
So save your righteous indignation for Diversity Thursday and LCS posts. No need getting your powder wet now.
Actually, if we had CUT taxes AND SPENDING we might have been recovered by now. Just saying.
Pretty much says it all:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/03/21/GR2009032100104.html
He can't resist...and a I got a wet trout waiting for him ;)
Who is being treasonous, Billy? Who is honoring the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence? Is it black and white?
Glen Beck has nothing to do with this. He is a television personality. Just like Bill Maher. It's like me saying Susan Sarandan is the leader of the Democratic Party.
By the way, if you want to threaten folks, stick to your kids (I can tell you are that type). Threatening God fearing Gun toting Military Serving Kid Coaching Volunteer Firefighting Highly Educated Underwear Bloggers is a good way to get keel hauled.
Since when is it treason to voice your opinion of the government? Eh, Tovarish?
That chart is racist!!! Obama is a genius, post-racial, law professor god-man. And Michelle Obama is the most beautifulest ladiest lady in the world ever! Also, you are a racy racist and your blog-parts should be put in jail with Beck and the Tea Panties. Eleventy!!
Geez between Triumph the Insult Comic Dog and Adolpf Hitler we have a lot of celebrities today! Sal, you are totally an A-Lister!
Dude, I don't like seeing that name even as a joke.
AH is from IP address 138.162.8.57 which is a USN IP address our of Lexington Park, MK. Nice to see what kind of folks are using their work computer for.
Oh, people who use Hitler like this give up their right to privacy on this blog.<span> </span>
I just reread the mission statement "Proavtively... etc." and don't see where it says that politics will or will not be discussed. But given that 'Phib runs the place, I don't really see it as my place to determine what will or will not be discussed.
And did you ever notice that people like JMAC decry "political shout fests" without ever realizing the irony of coming in, throwing a rhetorical bomb, and then feigning surprise that people react with some vehemence to that.
If you come in, and state your disagreement with reasons and logic, you might still get your ass handed to you, but it will be done politely. I know, as it has happened to me here before.
You need to talk to people in the banking, investment and real estate business. I do, every day.
I'm the eternal optimist. I ALWAYS see the bright side. And I find that graph terrifying.
To all concerned, Obama and McCain were both present at White House with Bush Jr. when plans for stimulus package were laid out. More or less this was a bipartisan effort - failed so far. Without addressing the China trade imbalance I am afraid any recovery is unlikely. But US cant anger China because US borrows most of the money from them...
Republicans should not be happy about this. Whoever replaces Obama in the White House will inherit this mess.
Shucks...and we thought you were just a guy so dumb you couldn't get a job in the "Real World."
Talking with people in banking, investment, and real estate doesn't change the data.
DB: You forgot the "Bless your heart..."
w/r, SJS
Salty, if only you could prove it. You're entitled to your opinion, but it doesn't change the reality of the situation.
I know a simple way out Ewok,
The next guy who gets elected needs to :
1. Remember his Oath and only spend within the constructs of the Constitutional enumerated powers (look them up)
2. CUT Taxes.
3. Repeal every spending bill from the last 12 years.
4. VETO any and all pork and earmarks.
5. Give HUGE tax incentives to manufacturing and KILL the following agencies; EPA, Dept of Education, FDA and Dept of the Interior.
watch the jobs come back....
We've talked here before about the "Terrible Twenties" and the coming problems with the Navy, small fleet size, etc. This isn't just a Navy problem either. The sea fleet looks like it was built yesterday compared to the age of much of the USAF air fleet (it isn't just a cost issue, but we've spent 10 years trying to buy new air tankers and I don't think we have anything under contract yet) . This will all take money, and that means we need a strong economy. The CJCS has already talked about this issue, at at least in identifying the problem he is correct.
Sadly, I don't see much in the way of current policies that will lead to a fix. This isn't a D or an Obama problem; the Rs in Congress and the Bush administration were not exactly paragons of fiscal virtue either.
Very nice... one problem its the Congress that decides the spending - and its much harder replacing that Legion that replacing single man - especially as every single congressman has his seat based on the pork he brings back home :P
As for the cutting taxes, I am afraid there will be a bright future for a few diamond cutters and goldsmiths - and of course for beauty business... but that hardly amounts to job recovery. Unless either US shuts down inequal trade, or somehow forces US workforce to live in Chinese standard of living there will be no industrial rebirth, regardless of tax inentives/deregulation.
And regarding point 3, does that include war funding? :P
Treason. Now there is an interesting word.
"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
They were some treasonous SOBs too, huh?
To the point of hanging together to avoid hanging separately, exactly!
URR, Well George III thought so. Sorry, couldn't help myself :)
Dude. They are the data.
C-dore,
Precisely. Which is what happens when loyalty is to a crown and a person and not to a Constitution.
...endowed by their Creator...
Not their president, or their congress, or their government, or their police force, or their army, or their social class...
Ewok, war spending is an Enumerated power when approved by Congress. Congress can vote on a budget sure and the Presdident has a duty to veto if it is not inline with the Constitution. Read up President Grover Cleveland.. you will learn alot about a man who spent the nations coin in the construct of the Constitution.
Cut Taxes.. Especially CORP tax rates and small businesses can hire people.. people will have more money, etc.. all boats rise on a rising tide kind of thing... Socialism simply doesnt work in the American model.
CDR, you need to speak the same language they used back in '92: "It's the data, stupid".
Like I said, the data show this problem was bad and getting worse, and didn't even start to improve until Obama took office. Using this data set to say chastise Obama is erroneous at best. Ask people for their opinions all you want, the data show bad and getting worse until Obama took office. In fact it was bad and getting worse, worse than the low point of many of the shorter recessions (greater than 50% of the recessions presented) while Bush was in office. If you want to label with causality, and you think it's the President, you're looking at the wrong guy... You know... based on the data YOU present.
Hey Alpha,
Instead of bellowing out the "blame Bush chorus", answer me a couple of easy questions.
Has employment gotten better or worse since January 2009?
Is the Obama current deficit and projected deficits higher than Bush's?
The President of the United States since January 2009 is responsible for everything that happens since January 2009.
The reckless spending MUST be stopped!
We are on an unustainable death spiral unless drastic steps are taken.
The Dems certainly won't. The Republicans probably lack the guts to even propose, let alone pass, the tough medicine needed.
Christy is the only one I see out there who might have the guts to tell it like it is and give it a shot.
Depressing.
And when inflation kicks in, it will get much worse!
In the olden days of the Before the Coming of The WON, anything, everything, and just about all else, was the direct result of GWB. Some nitwits in a prison, bored, up late and with camera were GWB's direct and absolute fault. The 12/26/2004 quake was a joint effort by GWB and his evil sidekick Cheney.
Since Immaculation Day, everything is still GWB's fault. BO must not have a pair, or he'd be able to do what all Preidents have done before him: Stand and accept responsibility for what's going on, and get to work to fix it, not pointing a finger, then escaping to play golf.
<span>as employment gotten better or worse since January 2009? </span>
<span>-Continued to decline for about 12 months, I'm pretty sure I mentioned that. Did you read what I wrote?
Is the Obama current deficit and projected deficits higher than Bush's? </span>
<span>-Sure they are. Is the employment rate of change better or worse than Bush's? Why did you bring up Bush?
The President of the United States since January 2009 is responsible for everything that happens since January 2009.</span>
-Not even close, unless the President was responsible for everything in 2008. I don't recall saying he was.
I'm merely pointing out that the data presented, doesn't support the conclusions reached. I'm happy to hear your refutation, if you think the data supports the conclusion.
I don't think the President, any President, is responsible for everything. Take some responsibility for your actions, and stop blaming Obama for "everything." "Obamanomics" is a BS label for those to lazy to do an economic assessment, or comprehend the issues at play, lagging indicators, and the lag involved in the correlation between inputs and outputs.
<span>So, you would like me to stop blaming Obama for things that happened on his watch. You would rather we blame GWB for things that happened after he went back to Crawford.
Nice try. The OOD has the duty from the time he is posted. Bitching like a nine-year old about the supposed mess that the last OOD left you is a good way to get my size 13 between your cheeks.
Obama told us we must pass the stimulus to keep unemployment under 8%. Since you are pointing out "data", what is the current unemployment rate?
The "unemployment rate of change"? You gotta be sh*tting me. Why didn't we hear that we needed to pass the stimulus at $800 billion because unemployment must continue to increase, but "the rate of change" will be better? That would have been a big seller.
He's an anti-capitalist Marxist. And your defending of his government takeover of the free market makes you one too.</span>
"...all enemies, foreign and domestic."
Easy enough
ewok... I assume that you are talking about the Bush/Paulson stimulus of 168 billion dollar passed in Bush's last year?
I refuse to believe, unless you provide me with proof to the contrary, that the 800 billion dollar stimulus package was already planned under the previous administration.
I have always been puzzled by that 168 billion dollar 'stimulus'. I assume that by early 2008 Bush was so battered after 8 years of constant stress and being shot at from all sides, that he didn't bother to go against free market principles.
I have said in the past that Bush was a far better economic Prez than was allowed in the press. He cut the deficit by 2/3s in a lttle over two years. That is actually impressive. He lowered unemployement to ~ 4.5% in that same period. Unlike clinton who started on an economic upturn, Bush started with a downturn and tried to administer after being attacked. He did this while cutting taxes. TWICE!
Moreover, when he campaigned for his first term, we were in an annual budget suplus, and he promised that he would reduce taxes to give that suplus bakc to wage earners. The Govt, when it has a surplus, will always spend it. There is no way to save! So even spending by redeeming treauries, paying down the debt is still spending. BTW, paying down the debt is a two edged sword. It actually is taking away the safest place to invest for the many billions (China, Japan, the EU, etc) of retirees and those saving for retirement who are the actual investors.
call me cynic, but Republican administration would be led by nose by the Wall st. as easily as Obama was....
USAF F-15s/F-16's mercilessly are being worn down. In Army artikllery is being atrophied. FCS fiasco beats LCS,Comanche was cancelled, how long OH-58s will soldier on? Carry on with the list.
Ewok,
Methinks you have that entirely backwards.
Obama has been driving the bus regarding Wall Street, and they are coming to the conclusion (note the drying up of WS campaign contributions) that they supported, and helped elect, an anti-capitalist, wealth-redistribution communist who surrounded himself with same.
Yea, what he said
precisley... and now the Chinese "middle class" want a higher standard of living.. when the corporations look around at the US with 13-16 percent unemployment and NO one buying crap from China any more.. well if I were the President I would SLASH the tax rates, kill the OBAMA medical fiasco and watch the jobs come back.. especially if we made manufacturing profitable again.. but we have to kill the over regulations and unions to do this.. we need an Andrew Jackson..
<span>"The "unemployment rate of change"? You gotta be sh*tting me. Why didn't we hear that we needed to pass the stimulus at $800 billion because unemployment must continue to increase, but "the rate of change" will be better? That would have been a big seller."</span>
---
I guess you think it needs to be increasingly negative before it magically turns around in one data point. Let me add that you would need to understand data trending to lagging effects to understand what is going on.
Let me try to explain in a way you'd understand. If you're trying to keep all your beer cold, and someone hands you a hot beer, is it reasonable to blame your cooling efforts for the hot beer in your hands, or is it reasonable to evaluate the beer and say, well it's still warm, but you're cooling it off as fast as you can?
I'm not defending anything Obama has done. I'm pointing out that this data do not condemn Obama's efforts. His actions have not caused in increase in the rate of job loss. The rate of job loss has been improving. If you're looking for the source of the problem, look at the point where employment was increasing at the highest rate, and then slowed down and went negative. If you're looking for the cause, the efforts to fix the problem isn't the cause of the problem.
Slick willy...
Did you ever have a problem with any of these, literally millions, of treasonous examples?
Bet not.
Now, I have been pegging the Great O as a radical socialist since well before the election. Said so, here and elsewhere.
But its a point of history who cheapened the national debate down into the sewer level....
And it wasn't us.
His actions have not caused in increase in the rate of job loss. The rate of job loss has been improving.
You really are lost as a microwaved goose...
Not that you'll believe it.
But...
Anyway
<span> It actually is taking away the safest place to invest for the many billions (China, Japan, the EU, etc) of retirees and those saving for retirement who are the actual investors.</span>
Money, like the spice, must flow. If it doesn't go into US Treasuries, it has to go elsewhere. Put another way, every dollar spent on US Treasuries is money that has been sucked out of the economy elsewhere. It is bad enough that the Obama Administration and the current Congress have created an environment where investors have little transparency and a great deal of uncertainty. Worse, for those seeking capital, the government has sucked up enormous amounts of the available capital. That makes it harder for them to find financing that they need to either continue operations, or to expand. Not exactly the brightest approach in a recession.
As to the individual investors, they would indeed be faced with a slightly higher overall risk. But they'd also almost certainly be rewarded with a higher rate of return over a long term period.
In terms I can understand...
Huh. Good thing you gave me an example of beer. That way, I can plug in the fridge on the front "lawn" of my trailer to cool up that hot beer (in a can, I am sure) that someone hands me while we were watching the Sprint Cup races.
Obama has the greatest single year budget deficit in the history of this country, nearly FOUR TIMES that of the predecessor he blames for every last thing that he is failing to do. A massive portion of that deficit is a "stimulus" that was absolutely required to keep unemployment under 8%. It included unprecedented government takeovers of:
The automobile industry
The financial sector, both the lending portion and banking portion
Health care
Student loans
Yet, here we are at 10% unemployment, with the real figures likely far higher. The only "decrease in the rate of job loss is due to massive growth in the government sector, to include stacking payrolls for a White House-controlled census effort.
We are losing jobs in manufacturing, while raising taxes in a recession, with the entire policy goal being the redistribution of wealth from the people who earned it to the people who didn't. Creating an entire class of people completely dependent on the government dole. And if they can't create that fast enough to secure their perpetuation of power, they will provide amnesty to 14 million illegal aliens, to guarantee it.
Those are terms you should understand. If you don't it is because you don't want to.
then why most of the stimulus went to big banks?
ewok,
It remains to be seen whether that is the case yet or not. But if it ends up being the case, then the banks got the money for the same reasons the automakers did. Solvency, dangled in front of them, with the real price being direct Federal Government involvement with day to day management, policy, compensation decisions, and business operations far greater than that of a regulatory entity. Close, in some cases, to nationalizing. Sort of "Hugo Chavez Light".
As much as I like lower taxes, we don't really have a surplus until the national debt is paid down.
and get rid of Department of Homeland Security.
If you don't like the watch that you are being handed by the outgoing OOD, you DO NOT TAKE THE WATCH. Barry asked for this job. If you take the watch, you can't bitch that the plant isn't working......
And an arch weld too?
Easy big guy, I WATCH Sprint cup! AND I have been known to drink warm beer.
Yeah, one wired up to a 600 amp AC welding machine :)
You guys say it so pejoratively....
What we gots up here is our very own northern New England motor sport. Ice racing.
Best part is the beer don't get warm. Weather dependent, of course.
"<span>The OOD has the duty from the time he is posted. Bitching like a nine-year old about the supposed mess that the last OOD left you is a good way to get my size 13 between your cheeks."</span>
Ahh yes, the reason problems don't get fixed in the military. Notice a problem, it's best to ignore it. If you bring it to someone's attention, they shoot the messenger. Wait, I think I've said that before. Classic.
OOD: CO, we've got a problem, the ship is sinking, I've managed to plug some holes, but we're still taking on water, but not as fast as before.
CO: What? We're taking on water? You're fired, I hold you accountable.
How did we get ourselves in the situation where "suddenly" we can't achieve readiness? Oh, no one wanted to admit what was going on, until they couldn't hide it anymore. Awesome plan. I hold Bush accountable for putting the economy into a tail spin. I hold Obama responsible for plugging the holes, and stopping the leaking. The leaking has stopped, we're pumping the ship out, and you're busy blaming the OOD that plugged the holes instead of the guy that let the ship rust.
Regis,
<span>"In terms I can understand... Huh. Good thing you gave me an example of beer."</span>
I figured it might help. Have you figured out how to read the charts yet? All the other distractions you bring up are entertaining, but off topic. Yes, we're at 10% unemployment, have you figured out what "rate of decline" means yet, or are you busy saying the economy sucks, I can't believe Obama did this to us?
Alpha,
Let me know if you get any more arrogant and sanctimonious.
I have figured out that 10% is not less than or equal to 8%. I have also figured out that $787 billion is just under half of $1.6 trillion.
Yes, rate of decline. This guy's "rate of decline" improved, too.
All that investment money flowing in is paying for all the imports -oil or china manufactured goods... if it was to dry up, US would end with no way to pay up for its own imports. Bad karma.
for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.
Alpha - I don't completely blame Obama.
I absolutely blame leftist politicians for the mortgage industry mess, which is the starting point for this mess, this recession. You can't give something to someone who can't afford it. This was a self-inflicted recession, and was exacerbated by an $800 billion crap bill - borrowing money there is no way to pay back.
In fact, I'll 'expose' myself. I didn't understand the mortgage industry situation, so I was stupid enough to by a rental property (condo). So I'm so far underwater I have no idea when it will be even. So what do I do? Continue to pay the mortgage. I have a responsibility to not what from my obligations. I have renters, my rent doesn't cover the obligation, so I've had to work extra jobs to cover it.
That is responsibility. Do I think Republican's are somewhat to blame, yes. But Frank and Waters are worthless morons who are on tape saying there's nothing wrong with fannie and freddie, and guess what - they were wrong!!! why are they still in office?????!!
The economists I've heard don't predict back to "normal" unemployment rates of 5-7% until 2015. That.is.a.long.time.folks. Jobs are real to people's lives, and produced by small businesses that are healthy, and sometimes wealthy people that know how to invest capital. Too bad Community Organizer-in-Chief and the cronies don't know ANYTHING about that; and yes, he needs to be fired along with the rest.
Byron, I think he called us a name!
Alpha. Think about it. Credit was going to freeze up if we didn't bail out the banks. So we bailed them out, slapped on three thousand pages of new regulations. What's the effect? Credit is still frozen, and we now owe the Chinese more. We had to bailout GM or thousands of people would lose their jobs. What happened? Factories closed and people lost their jobs so that GM could regain some modicum of profitability, not to mention the government decided which dealers to close (div thursday, anyone?). Do I need to go on? It's like claiming that Obamacare is NOT a tax, and then arguing the constitutionality of Obamacare by saying THE GOVENRMENT HAS THE POWER TO TAX!
Simple phrase, touted often in the Navy Pentagon: "What is your Return on Investment?"
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