Monday, March 10, 2014

The Life of a Small Light Next to a Sea of Darkness

You are a very small nation who desperately just wants to be left alone. A small outpost of Balto-Scandinavian culture next to a Russian vastness.

It never has been easy, it isn't easy, and odds are it never will be.
For this tiny country of 1.3 million, things are, from one perspective, excellent indeed. Since independence in 1991, Estonia has welcomed democracy and a market economy, become a member of NATO and the European Union, and adopted the euro. The country exudes modernity, consumerism, and freedom. There’s wireless Internet nearly everywhere—parks, pubs, squares, beaches, forests—and nearly always free. When you walk through Tallinn Airport, you feel like you’re in a trendy version of an Ikea store, with semi-inviting cafés, book alcoves, ready-to-use iPads.
Joe Biden might say LaGuardia pales in comparison.

Freedom House gives Estonia highest marks in democratic development, for both political rights and civil liberties. The country ranks higher than the United States in economic freedom in a Heritage Foundation index.

So what’s to worry?
...
Estonia’s ethnic Russian minority comprises nearly a quarter of its population (fellow Baltic nation Lithuania has 5.8 percent; Latvia, nearly 27 percent). As a result, Tallinn has to put up with constant Kremlin complaints—the charges nearly always unsubstantiated by international observers—that Russians in Estonia are treated poorly and subject to discrimination by the Estonian government. Russian president Vladimir Putin is believed to have a personal gripe with the country. Or so Estonian officials think, as we know from diplomatic cables, thanks to WikiLeaks. Putin’s father, who fought with the Red Army during World War II, parachuted on a mission into Estonia, where locals, still angry over the Soviet occupation in 1940—a year before Germany invaded—handed him over to Nazi forces.

What’s clear in any case is this: Moscow loves meddling, provoking, and slapping Estonia around.
...
Some might have thought that NATO and EU membership settles everything. Courtesy WikiLeaks, we know that at least some U.S. officials have considered Estonia paranoid about Russia. It seems instead that recent events in Ukraine and Russian policy toward this small Baltic nation well might concentrate our minds on Kremlin strategy toward Eastern Europe—and on the sad fact that we don’t seem to have one.
Read all of Jeffery Gedmin's article in TWS for the details if you are not up to some of the nuance about the pickle that is Estonia.

Here is the Wikileaks note mentioned:
The Estonian authorities have a pessimistic view of the prospects of relations with Moscow, according to a new portion of secret diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks.

Russian Reporter magazine has published a secret cable sent to Washington by US diplomats in Estonia last spring. The cable allegedly concerns Tallinn’s policy toward Russia and Estonia’s place in US-Russian relations.

The cable, attributed to US diplomats, including Ambassador to Tallinn Michael Polt, describes Estonia’s views of the prospects of relations with Russia as “pessimistic.” The country’s defensive posture is even “based on an almost paranoid perception of an imminent Russian attack,” the document says.

The diplomats tried to find positive signs in Estonia’s approach, stressing that the country “is working to temper its political stance on Russia.” In particular, Tallinn prefers to handle bilateral issues with Russia “quietly,” the document reads.
Who are we actually sending as ambassador to Estonia? Do they know of nothing about their history? Have they not visited the Occupations Museum in Tallinn? Idiots.

You aren't being paranoid if your are a neighbor of Russia; you are just a student of history.

Sunday, March 09, 2014

Abolishing of the USAF, on Midrats



In concept, execution, and ability to effectively provide its part of the national defense infrastructure, has a separate Air Force served this nation well, and does it make sense to keep it a separate service?

Our guest this Sunday from 5-6pm (don't forget to "spring forward") makes the case that the experiment in a separate US Air Force is over, and it has failed. Though we need airpower, we don't need a separate service to provide it.

With us for the full hour will be Professor Robert M. Farley, PhD, author of the book being released 11 March, Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force.

Rob teaches defense and security courses at the Patterson School of Diplomacy at the University of Kentucky. He blogs at InformationDissemination and LawyersGunsAndMoney.

Join us live if you can with the usual suspects in the chat room and offer up your questions for our guest, but if you miss the show you can always listen to the archive at blogtalkradio.

Listen to internet radio with Midrats on Blog Talk Radio

Sunday Funnies

Friday, March 07, 2014

Fullbore Friday

What does a leader do? When are you willing to put yourself and your troops on the line to make a point? How do you, unarmed, give the presence of leadership among your armed opponents?

I give you a leader who simply, is. In another word; stud.

Colonel Yuli Mamchor (L), commander of the Ukrainian military garrison at the Belbek airbase, leads his unarmed troops to retake the Belbek airfield from soldiers under Russian command in Crimea on March 4, 2014 in Lubimovka, Ukraine.
I may quibble a bit about their historical regimental flag, but that would be a quibble.

The point I was making about presence? This pic captures it.


There is no question who is in control here and who is looked at as the leader. Even among the Russians, the respect is there.

I also want to give a nod to the officer or NCO from Russia here. Another great example of leadership. Whoever he is, BZ to him as well. He has "it."


There is a lot to chew on about this event - and for all leaders to ponder from both the Russian and Ukrainian point of view. If you have not already, if you have an "interesting" career, odds are you will find yourself here. May we all have the character to comport ourselves as Col. Mamchor.

UPDATE: Interesting:



UPDATE II - Electric Boogaloo: Good interview with Col. Mamchur by TheTelegraphUK:
"Yeah, I know," said Colonel Yuli Mamchur, shifting his weight a little uncomfortably from foot to foot. "I get people trying to call at 2 AM," he said. "I'm no hero. I'm a military professional doing his job."
...
There was never any question of fighting. Faced by what he believes are special forces soldiers, armed to the teeth with machine guns and Kalashnikovs, Col Mamchur, whose name was earlier incorrectly reported as Mamchuk, resolved that no blood would be shed on his watch. "I wasn't going to see my men slaughtered. I decided to negotiate," he said.

But early on Tuesday, the officers and men of the brigade agreed to march behind him, unarmed, back to the occupied aerodrome and demand to be allowed back to work.

"It was a pretty spontaneous decision, to be honest," he said. "It was a gamble. We're soldiers and we have our duty to fulfil. So are they, and they understand that. So I was hoping we could find an understanding," he explained. "We just wanted to get back to work."
The diminutive colonel's daring march led to a dramatic five hour stand-off in which the Russians fired warning shots - their first of the occupation - and his men played football under the noses of Russian machine gunners.
..
For now, though, Col Mamchur and his men are largely confined to their residential buildings and command centre in the village of Lubymovka. The aerodrome on the ridge above - including the runway, the magazine, and the entire complement of 45 Mig-29 fighters - is under the control of Russian troops who continue, hopelessly, to maintain the official pretence that they are "local self defence volunteers".
...
"We love it here," said Mrs Mamchur, who was accompanying her husband around his command center on Wednesday. "It's one of the best cities in the world. We love Sevastopol, Crimeans are wonderful. And in all our time here there was never any kind of tension between Russians and Ukrainians and Tatars - it all started now."

Mrs Mamchur, who is herself half Russian, blamed a ceaseless barrage of Kremlin propaganda for creating and stoking artificial tensions between ethnic Russians and others, especially Ukrainians and Tatars, on the peninsula.

"Just look at the local TV - and local TV is already Russian TV, by the way - and we all Banderites, Kiev is full of Fascists, we are occupiers here, there is going to be a genocide of Russians," she said. "And we are all the hostages in the middle of it."

For the Mamchurs, as for many of the service families who live at the Belbek base, the idea of finding themselves in confrontation with Russians - their neighbours, relatives, and for the soldiers previously their allies - is almost absurd as it is frightening.

"It makes no sense. I can't even say whether I am Ukrainian or Russian - it's not a choice any of us can really make. My wife's Belarusian, her mother is Russian. We've all got relatives on both sides," said Col Mamchur. "When all this started we got calls from friends in Moscow who were simply in shock."

"Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine are really one slavic people," said the Colonel. "The divisions are only formalities. Whoever gave the order for this operation set brother against brother. It's a crazy situation."

Thursday, March 06, 2014

Diversity Thursday

Deep down, even you last starry-eyed believers in the electric steamboat of diversity have to admit - there are a lot of people who owe their living to keeping racial relations tense, to promoting sectarianism and division - to keeping us culturally backward.

You can use all those words, or you can just call them what they are - bigots. Poster child this week, well ... you know. Via Doyle Murphy at NYDN;
Spike Lee has plenty of love for Brooklyn — just not the hipsters and gentrifiers.
(Spike Lee) laid into an audience member on Tuesday night, who suggested during Lee's speech at Pratt Institute there were benefits of gentrification.

"Let me just kill you right now," said Lee, who then went into a rant about the gentrification that has changed his home borough.
"Have you seen Fort Greene Park in the morning?" Lee yelled into the microphone Tuesday during his expletive-laced, 90-minute Black History Month speech. "It's like the m-----f-----g Westminster dog show."

He blasted what he calls the "Christopher Columbus syndrome" of neighborhoods "discovered" by wealthy gentrifiers — a scourge that's allowed real estate agents and "m----f-----g hipsters" to change even the names of neighborhoods like the South Bronx to SoBro or Bushwick to East Williamsburg. “These Williamsburg m-----f-----s are changing the names,” said Lee.

The number of black homeowners who invested in tough neighborhoods decades ago and now stand to make money is small, Lee said, and it wasn't until whites moved in that city schools, policing and garbage pickup improved.

"Why," Lee asked, “did it take this great influence of white people to get the schools better?”
I wonder if he knows he sounds just like a segregationist in 1963. Some people just can't take the races mixing. Bad for business; Spike Lee's business.

There is a short news report here, or you can seeis the whole thing.

Wednesday, March 05, 2014

If it take a NAM ....

The Navy and the QDR

If you have not already from last night's post, click here for the QDR or just reference it below.

I don't get too wonky about QDRs as they are OBE fairly fast, but that doesn't mean they aren't important. They are very important because they are used as a reference point for decision makers and those tasked with deciding how to man, train, and equip our future Fleet.

In that light, here is a summary of the major maritime points as I see them:
The Navy will prioritize:
- Maintaining a credible, modern, and safe sea-based strategic deterrent, including required investments to start SSBN(X) submarine construction in FY2021; and
- Sustaining or affordably enhancing asymmetric advantages to remain ahead of or keep pace with adversary threats including offensive strike capabilities such as the Offensive Anti-Surface Warfare weapons, Next-Generation Land Attack Weapon, Virginia Payload Module, and F-35 programs.
There is your outline for the Terrible 20s with bullet #1, but #2 gives plenty of focus.
No new contract negotiations beyond 32 Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) will go forward. The Navy will closely examine whether the LCS has the protection and firepower to survive against a more advanced military adversary, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. The Navy will submit alternative proposals to procure a capable and lethal small surface combatant.
I know that is old news now, but I just wanted to put it out there again for the Front Porch to roll in.
... the Marine Corps will plan for an end strength of 182,000 active duty Marines, with additional cuts to 175,000 if sequestration-level cuts are imposed in FY2016 and beyond.
You can never have enough Marines - but in a global context that is an unmatched combat force pound-for-pound. Workable.
By 2020, 60 percent of U.S. Navy assets will be stationed in the Pacific, including enhancements to our critical naval presence in Japan.
No need to change that.

There is quite a bit in there about sequestration that requires your attention as well - but to be frank, it all bores me to death and I'll let the politicians work on it, and those who like to play in that sandbox. No offense to the authors (it actually reads well), it is just "it".

All in all, this just reinforces my general feeling about QDR: it means a lot to some very important people - but for me it still lies between meh and feh.