After yesterday's post - I started thinking of what in living memory we thought of when someone said "mothballs."
Some think, still, that if history takes a turn - well - we can always do what our father's, grandfathers, and great-grandfathers did; pull from the reserves, rehab the mothball fleet, and get the shipyards pop'n.
We know the status of our shipyards in the second decade of the 21st Century. What spare capacity we once had is gone; the ability to flex has been lost in a sea of regulation, bureaucracy and a loss of technical expertise inside a desert that was once a robust industrial infrastructure.
The crime that is the treatment of the Navy Reserve is a topic we have covered before. I'm unmediated, so I don't want to go down that rabbit hole again.
Look hard at the pic to the right - then I want you to click the links below.
Prior to WWII, Korea, and even Vietnam, there were viable ships waiting to fill the gap as new ships were built or developed - ready for the reserve Sailors and trained Seamen to fill the void and man the units paid for by an nation who had the ability to take on bundles of debt that war requires, because in peace they kept spending in check.
This data-point from this slideshow got me pondering;
The fleet once numbered over 400 but in the last decade the count has been around 75 shipsFunny thing is - I'm trying to find some light in this hole we dug for ourselves, and I'll find one to post about soon, I hope.
For now though, let us ponder the reality we have - not the one we wish we had. The next Navy war when it comes - and it will - we will fight with the Fleet we have, and no more. That will be it. No reserve fleet to activate. No allies to flesh us out. No, just us. That will be it.
Under the Obama administration, the US Maritime Administration has stepped up efforts to dispose of these ships. By 2017, they will all be removed and scrapped.Indeed.
Not having a real naval war for almost 70 years does things to a navy. Korea and Vietnbam were gunboat diplomacy expeditions. Not having a peer competitor for over 20 years does even more things. (Un)fortunately PLAN will provide one sooner rather than later...
ReplyDeleteas a son of a Mechant Marine, my thoughts went there as well. Consider too, how many merchants does the U.S. have? how many does that potential competitor have?
ReplyDeleteThis is why any thoughts of continuing with a "sub-optimal" ship program is outright ridiculous...
ReplyDeleteAlso, all this notion the LCS is some kind of iconic Langley ushering in a new era of warship (even though its not a warship) is yet more pig makeup. No. The Langley was a one off technology demonstrator, and nobody in their right mind ever advocated turning the clearly "sub-optimal" design into any kind of workhorse of the fleet.
Would have been nice to have a nest or two of Knox class FFs somewhere.
ReplyDeleteThere was once, at Pearl Harbor. They're all gone, too, mostly FMS, but some were cut up.
ReplyDelete<span>
ReplyDelete<span>The over arching dynamic here is the shift in US culture from one of thrift and saving to a culture of consumption and hedonism. Why would you expect this dynamic to not present itself as a diminishing inactive fleet when it dominates the entire US culture in 2011?</span>
<span>Our saving grace...the cohort who will pull us out of this cultural death spiral...is the current group of 20 year-olds. They get what’s happening and they are pissed that their future has been mortgaged to support today's overconsumption by a group of pathologically narcissistic Boomers! As the 20 year-olds gain power they will reverse this. I just hope they get 'er done before it’s too late.</span>
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You might note that, with the exception of the Iowa battleship in the forefront of the photo, the rest of the ships in Suisun Bay are logisitics ships or other non "shooters."
ReplyDeleteOne of the lessons of the General Board in the 20's and 30's was planning for not having support bases from which to operate the fleet. Mobile repair baes, replenishment at sea, and all that unfolds from that. Unsexy stuff, but 80+ years on that planning has served us well. Where's the back up for the fleet logistics force now found in MSC?
Say after me, "Logistics, logistics, logistics!" Now you are a professional warrior.
I wonder when we'll see the LSC fleet unrep ship variant?
The future of LCS once engaged...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.navsource.org/archives/04/1126/04012639.jpg
I found a picture of a first draft of the LCS unrep module...
ReplyDeleteSal,
ReplyDeleteI think your about two decades and a billion dollars late to this arguement. I wish I could remember the source, but it was either a Proceedings Article or an article in JFQ back around the turn of the century, talking about the mothball fleets and how the USTRANSCOM was looking hard at the "what-if" of the ballon going up in Europe. They served a number of the cargo ships and auxillaries. Realized that a number of the cargo ships that were layed up couldn't work modern ports with the containerized shipping terminals. Some of the Auxillaries could work effectively with fast task forces that was the modern US Navy/NATO fleets built around they were useless except for being targets. Let alone the Maintenance issues were some of the ships were supposed to be ready in D+90 realistically were reading in D+270. For years TRANSCOM had been screaming for upgrades to the reserve fleet, but due to a number of issues, it hasn't happened. Now some of these ships are well over 50yrs olds, they are floating hazards (both enviromentally and physically), and we don't have the $$ to replace them. Take a honest look at Desert Storm and OIF some of these reserve fleet ships should have been abled to be mobilized to move the massive amounts of military units overseas. Instead we had to contract out to other nations and a few of the more newer ships (like a couple of the Algol class of ships) experienced mechanical breakdowns because of poor material conditions of the ships.
Hey, that's Belknap. My cousin was a Marine aboard JFK that day (which was, ironically 22 Nov). He has some incredible stories about lifesaving efforts. DC professionals should always heed....
ReplyDeleteIt DOES beg the question, how was it "cost effective" to repair Belknap after such extensive damage above the weather deck, but not so to install VLS on the Ticos, or SLEP the Perrys?
ReplyDeleteBelknap served another 15 years, almost the service length of the first 5 Ticos.
Fools, we. But at least we have money for diversity conferences and sexual assault posters.
SAP,
ReplyDeleteYou're right. I should have first posted on this subject on this blog back in 1991, or earlier.
Ahem.
also, anyone can remeber the end of USS Langley...
ReplyDeletedeja vu?
March, 2042 USS Freedom sunk by PLAN carrier - borne aircraft as it evacuated US troops from Indonesia after second battle of the Java Sea
now if we can time travel the 2011 net back to 1991...
ReplyDeletecritical brain error, imagination overload
It's not just a matter of the quantity of ships we have available, but their quality as well. I'll just leave this here...
ReplyDeletehttp://hamptonroads.com/2011/07/navys-beleaguered-san-antonio-has-another-setback
For the curious, you can find a PDF of the MSC fleet here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.msc.navy.mil/latestnews/posters/smallposter2011.pdf
Don't worry about file size or time-to-download. It's only 1 page.
Greetings:
ReplyDeleteIf I may just insert a bit more information to cheer you all through your day.
Just because the Suisun Bay mothball fleet is being decimated doesn't mean all those San Francisco area enviro-naizs aren't trying to sue the federal government over the detritus falling off the remaining ships into the Bay's waters. You see, that's how they make a good bit of their money, suing. And all we have standing between them and our IOU-filled treasury is US Attorney General Eric (My People) Holder.
You could if we didn't decom the EDLRIDGE...
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Experiment
Sal,
ReplyDeleteI am not knocking you. Just saying the arguement has been an unsexy discussion in the parts of the Pentagon and offices of the Washington Navy, where those with the power do the W.C. Fields things to those who speak about logisitics instead of firepower "Get outta here kid your bothering me."
First, I reviewed the current photo and thought WOW that is a lot of capability there in Replenishment. I thought a shame those 30 or so vessels were not active due to our sad state of affairs... THEN I clicked on each successive link Phib included and that put it all in perpective... We are so screwed.....
ReplyDeleteWhat bugs me even more is that having a weak or nonexistent mobilization capability flies in the face of American history.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the military history of this country, the American public has a long tradition of fighting like lions...for three years. Thirty-six months after the shooting starts, the American people demand to have either vicotry in sight or an disengagement being attempted. If they have neither come Election Day, the party in power becomes the party out of power.
Which means that the United States needs an ability to do a fast mobilization. And we don't seem to be thinking in those terms, much less be able to actually DO it.
I truly hope so. I am meeting a lot of great young men these days, more than a few back from overseas, but from the civy equivalent of your "deckplates" I am sadly seeing far more slackers, drugs, half-azzes, and followers these days. Consumption, Hedonism, and add Apathy to that.
ReplyDeleteIn the best case scenarios, those that have open minds will be starting from a position so far ingrained from Kindergarten through Grad School by those mostly following one narrative.
<span>I truly hope so. I am meeting a lot of great young men and women these days, more than a few back from overseas, but from the civy equivalent of your "deckplates" I am sadly seeing far more slackers, drugs, half-azzes, and followers these days. Consumption, Hedonism, and add Apathy to that.
ReplyDeleteIn the best case scenarios, those that have open minds will be starting from a position so far ingrained from Kindergarten through Grad School by those mostly following one narrative.</span>
The USN in the next war had better have the mindset of "What You Have Is All You Get"...
ReplyDeleteLike the Germans on the Russian steppes in 1941, or the Japanese in the Solomons in 1942.
A navy (can't resist), configured sub-optimally for conflict with the expectation that help is just around the corner ...help which never shows...ends up like this.
Go to Bing.com and then maps > Suisan Bay, California > and go to the "bird's eye" view of the ships. Depressing.
ReplyDeleteAs for the draw down. In the 40s we could build warships and support ships like no tomorrow. We don't have that capability today - even in case off a national emergency I doubt we could get it done. The old shipyards are now almost all marinas or parks, or rusted hulks of what was.
We are quickly becoming a one trick pony. One shot and done.
We Are So Screwed
There's another factor at work here that is not so apparent. Looking at the photo it seems to me that, with the exception of the CG and the TAO-187, most of these ships have steam propulsion. During the first Gulf War one of the major problems with activating the Reserve Fleet was the lack of qualified (American) steam engineers to man their engineering spaces because of the shift to diesel propulsion in the civilian merchant fleet and the ongoing adoption of gas turbine technology by the USN at the time. I can't imagine that situation has gotten any better in the past 20 years. While this doesn't excuse the scrapping, sale, and sinking of our newer warships it is an explanation of why the fleet is as small as it is.
ReplyDelete<span>I wouldn't rely on all those container cranes working in a combat zone. I don't think the recent experieince off-loading ships in post-earchquake Haiti was so good.</span>
ReplyDeletewhen I was a SN back in the mid-1990s I remember? the last "BT"s were being phased out... (and so many Rates to follow :(
ReplyDeleteAndrew gets the gold star!!!
ReplyDeleteContainerized cargo is very good indeed for intermodal transportation hubs, but not so good when you are muscle-fucking everything out of those containers when you need the items.
Shipping containers in Haiti, as in any damaged port (are we listening, "seize a port instead of going over the beach crowd"?) were not at all optimal.
Big, bald, bear like men talking about "muscle-f$(*#&" things .... wow, how fast things change.
ReplyDeleteI'm just say'n. :-P
Mullen told me it was okay.
ReplyDeleteWould you prefer I used the term "armstrong method"?
Lance or Stretch?
ReplyDelete<span>also, anyone can remember the end of USS Langley...
ReplyDelete</span>
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<span>Repeat of the pic above</span>
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<span>Definitely suboptimal....</span>
Sal. Im disapointed in you you still havnt figured it out.
ReplyDeleteThe point is to weakin the US. War is considered the enemy and the idea that one nation can enforce its values and that of the free world without the rest of the planets permission is viewed as horrifying.
So how do you stop this? Simple make them unable to use that military power by corrupting the most effective military sense the Legions and destroying the excess military and economic power that makes the weapons of war.
Remember the Obama administration and much of europe is Liberal. What do they blame for crime? Guns, Harsh feelings, capitalism........not people. So in their view if they destroy the US ability to wage war they stop wars and FORCE the US to obey world opinion.
Just something i've been thinking about for awhile now...........it strays to much to the realm of the plausible for me to be comfortable.
Well someone needs to tell TRANSCOM that because they still think that since the world is in containers, that is how everything is supposed to be packed away. I also remember going fishing amongst the James River RRF back around the late 90's and early '00's and seeing ships that still used the old hatch and cargo net process of cargo handling with plenty of cargo booms hanging off of them. All of them looking rusted and unloved.
ReplyDeleteThats why MARAD underwrote the Lash ships Way back When....
ReplyDeletePerhaps the BFI management technique. Brute Force and Ignorance?
ReplyDeleteIt all depends on how scared the pols are, and who gets to play Henry J. Kaiser, and who gets to play Sen Harry S. Truman chairing the war mobilization effectiveness committee.
ReplyDeleteFirst you have to 1. Declare war. and 2. Declare M day. and 3. Appoint the Director of Mobilization with plenipotentary powers (for the duration).
The pendulum never stops swinging. It's well past center in the wrong direction now. The price is going to be hideous.
The agency holding the bag on this one isn't MSC. It's MARAD.
ReplyDeleteThe money for keeping a string on the real merchant vessels goes through them, I believe.
Of course, it would be best to use them at need once we get them on the the string. The big RORO's used to deploy the second echelon ground and air forces are kept on 3-5 day breakout in various ports, and broken out in readiness exercises/hurricane sorties often enough. The first echelon is in the prepo squadrons, manned and at anchor (the term of Art is black hulls) in forward locations off the beaten path. The ships to be taken up from trade, to borrow the briticism, are liners in trade, pretty much (no, I don't mean passenger ships). The prepo and ready reserve are the deployment ships. US flag ships in trade backfill. Then there are the big shipping companies under flags of convenience, usually happy for the work (note the assumption). The reserve fleet ships are/were assumed to be for fleet expansion/combat loss replacement pending new construction, mostly. The Corps hides some odd ducks in the covey, on the cheap which they can get at quick, and are quiet about it.
Fleet expansion is where the real problem is, Fukayama's Error Syndrome. No Knoxes, No Spruances, No steam FF's, pretty damn soon no Auxiliaries or Amphibs.
Since we can go back and punish them for long ago errors, doubtless some of the Admirals from the 90's will get buried below Flag Rank once we deal with 2 years of defeat and a year stalemate before the 5 years we need to win back what we lost and then defeat the enemy. At best.
why do we have so similar thoughts? 8-)
ReplyDeletein one thing LCS is similar to a carrier - if a pair of Sea Cobras is embarked it carries more firepower than the ship itself...
right on, there have been numerous studies about where the USN is going to find merchant mariners who can a) operate steam plants, b) have the right license to operate newer diesels, c) are in sufficient numbers to operate all the MARAD RRF and NDRF ships needed by the oplans.
ReplyDeleteSo like Sal said we will have to go to war with what we got and little else from the reserve fleets.
and NOW TRANSCOM has been given the responsiblity to define sealift ship rqmts (# and type) a job the US Navy used to have but hell our Navy is much interested in the sealift mission its put in ppts.
ReplyDeleteThe sources of ships for DS/S were mostly active US and foreign fleets. The source for most OIF sealift ships is fromt MARAD's RRF with miscellaneous foreign flag charters.
A coupe of USNS were broken out or kept in ROS longer (T-AO and T-AE/AFS) just a few.
Container ships sat at the most northern ports during DS/S, I belive they were the two T-AVBs of MARAD
ReplyDeletethe commercial ships made up to makeshift piers were unloading containers about three days after the earthquake. IF SOUTHCOM and TRANSCOM had got their heads screwed on right, there would have been a full JLOTS op going on in only 7 days in PaP.
ReplyDeletethen why have ALL DOD services switched their ammo lifts to containerized carriage? Only breakbuld at sea is in NFAF ships for USN
ReplyDeleteLASH ships were the heavy haulers of ammo in APF. C-9s had 26,000 cdwt and over 10 million lbs NEW. But all that cargo is now on containers ships for several reasons.
ReplyDeleteWhat a heep of junk. I am glad my President is cleaening this up. Thank you Mr. President.
ReplyDeleteerm... what is the chinese for "Kido butai"?
ReplyDeleteSelf-like will make you go blind.
ReplyDeleteGPB good post, perhaps the confusion is that the MARAD RRF ships switch OPCON to COMSC when activated. Another thing to throw into the mix is that the RRF has being shrunk for the past 5 years or so. No new/converted sealfit ships have been funded.
ReplyDeleteAnd just to muddy the waters more, there is a proposal to transfer ALL RRF ships from MARAD to MSC (where they will be kept in better material condition).
I wonder how long the old amphibs going into NIMSF will stay there before being relegated to lower life in MARADs' NDRF?
Oh yea thats a beautiful ship on the end there......
ReplyDeleteBe a shame if it had been off the coast of tripoli a few months ago better its there doing nothing.
<span>But all that cargo is now on containers ships for several reasons.</span>
ReplyDelete"Cost Effective" "Optimal" for <span>routine peacetime</span> reasons I'm sure....
<span>Container ships sat at the most northern ports during DS/S, I belive they were the two... </span>
ReplyDeleteYep...
They got lucky...
Wouldn't count on it next time.
Might turn out right "sub-optimal"
Heaven forbid that DoD does something that mimics industry but is entirely inappropriate for the exigencies of war fighting. ("Just-in-time" ammo resupply, mister Battalion Commander in contact with the enemy?)
ReplyDeleteContainerized carriage will work fine in most places, but where it won't work, it REALLY won't work.
James, if you put a 16 inch shell on target someone might get hurt!
ReplyDeleteThat is neither transformational, nor being a global force for good...
Sid snark all you want, you are
ReplyDeletea) not going to change the way the WORLD and DOD ships their cargo. and
b) DOD planners now have pretty much adopted use of containers for most wartime movements. If you go look at the military vehicle pub it is replete with container handling equipment for land, sea and air use. That has pros and cons but that is the way of the world
So suck it up, containers are here to stay.
Hey, that's Belknap . My cousin was a Marine aboard JFK that day (which was, ironically 22 Nov). He has some incredible stories about lifesaving efforts. DC professionals should always heed....
ReplyDelete