There is more to military planning than the POM cycle - than the election cycle ideas. The Chinese know this - do you?"In the coming five years, our military will push forward preparations for military conflict in every strategic direction," said Liang Guanglie in an interview published by several state-backed newspapers in China. "We may be living in peaceful times, but we can never forget war, never send the horses south or put the bayonets and guns away," Mr Liang added.Understand the Chinese. Understand their history; one literally more than an order of magnitude greater than ours.
...
As China modernises, Mr Liang pledged that its armed forces would also increasingly use homegrown Chinese technology, which analysts say still lags behind Western technology even as China races to catch up.
"The modernisation of the Chinese military cannot depend on others, and cannot be bought," Mr Liang added, "In the next five years, our economy and society will develop faster, boosting comprehensive national power. We will take the opportunity and speed up modernisation of the military."
You don't send your horses south because, you see, the Mongolians are to the north.
You always maintain a trade surplus because of the severe damage the opium trade did to empty out anything of value from China.
Also remember that the Chinese tend to exaggerate a bit where weak - and hide strength where strong. They read Sun Tsu
better than we do.
They also know they are a land power that relies on maritime trade to feed and employ its people - to enrich their nation and its military. As long as you are not a threat to their access to natural resources or trade - they will probably leave you alone.Besides some minor border issues with India and Vietnam, smaller ones with other nations- the only major border issues are with Taiwan and Russia.
What is the big threat to us from China? Only if it goes neo-Imperial or tries Argentina-82 style to externalize domestic unrest; and only then if we decide to make their quarrel ours.
Always judge a nation by its future capabilities though - not its present intentions - that goes both ways.
Gates is our Sun Tsu. His strategic genius will keep us safe for a century or more.
ReplyDeleteThis has got to be the most balanced and sensible written work on China I have read in
ReplyDeletea long time. Since the appearance of new J20, the hysteria has been ridiculous.
Q: Picture is battle of Legnica/Liegnitz?
ReplyDeletehere is medieval depicting of Battle of Legnica:
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Legnica.JPG
as for the second pic is it FAK-PA in PRC markings?
nice short analysis
might I add, there have been few, if any, examples of Chinese expansionism - due mainly to geographical isolation, but there is history of interventions in neighbouring countries like Korea or Vietnam when outside powers like Japan or US were involved
BZ CDR.
ReplyDeleteA single truth: What China needs, she'll eventually have to take. And, it is the same thing that has married us to the mid-east and forced our hand (whether justified or not). While Chinese naval build up looks to us like "expansion"; it is far more likely to be, in their eyes, "don't interfere, from our East".....as they quietly prepare to move to their west, southwest, and north in order to secure the same resource that we are engaged in trying to corral/hoard at present.
J20.
ReplyDeleteI seem to recall the same thinking emanating from some islands near China about, oh, 70 years ago...
ReplyDelete<span> As long as you are not a threat to their access to natural resources or trade - they will probably leave you alone.</span>
ReplyDeleteThis is where Barnett falls off the rails...
Our great genius in creating this globalization is that ultimately, it does not need us to continue. It only needs our unwillingness to destroy it.
Fair enough. However, in time, the rising global middle class will find itself in conflict for resources. And, human nature being what it is, means an environment not unlike that seen at the the bottom of a bucket full of crabs.
Competition for limited resources and land has always meant violence.
And we'd be right arrogant -and foolish- to presume that we have evolved away from this most basic of human traits.
Sal, what worries me is the likelihood of China trying to secure their SLOCs...and starting a war in the process.
ReplyDeleteFrom the Chinese perspective, they are surrounded by historically unfriendly nations, all positioned to cut their sea trade. The Chinese coountermove is to talk to some, intimidate others, and maybe whack one over the head. The problem being the risk of war spreading. The situation is disturbingly reminiscent of Europe around 1900, with China the new Wilhelmine Germany.
And we all know how that turned out...
You forgot the sarc tags.
ReplyDeleteHmmm interesting, as this leads us into paralells with 1941 situation of another Asian country starved for resources.
ReplyDeleteWhile US could have avoided war entirely at a price of accepting Japanese hegemony in East Asia, it choose to corner the tiger, with results we all know too well.
Will US and the Chinese be capable of avoiding repeat of history?
BTW, a thought occured to me that perhaps best thing US could do with the whole Middle East Mess would be to sell it wholesale to China and move on to nuclear energy supporting electric based transportation system. All the uranium US needs is in Canada.
First let's sell North Korea to the Chinese and see how that handle THAT mess before we outsource the Middle East Mess to them.... :)
ReplyDeleteI wonder if we will see the Chinese attempt to copy the F-35 or the LCS?
ReplyDeleteThat alone should tell us a lot about the value of those programs.
Well, the French consider Jerry Lewis a genius so anything is possible!
ReplyDeleteToo funny.
ReplyDelete