The capture last week of fifteen Royal Navy personnel by Iran was clearly premeditated and, legally, could be interpretated as an act of war. We should not be in any doubt as to why this has happened. Iran thinks we are weak. They have seen us promise sanctions on many occasions during the protacted negotiations with them over their nuclear programme and fail to act on as many occasions. They see British troops withdrawing from Basra even though their work is far from finished. Tehran has calculated that Britain does not have the stomach to stand up to Iran. What is clear is that Britain and the west still have options at the moment. Tehran is a conventional power. Once it becomes a nuclear power that range of options becomes a lot narrower.My timeline is to the right of many - but I give the diplomats 1-month.
I know where I would go from there - but I am keeping it to myself for my reasons.
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